What are the odds that two adjacent posts would both use the word "fustian"?

April 20, 2006 7:44 AM

What are the odds that two adjacent posts would both use the word "fustian"?
posted by adamrice to MetaFilter-Related at 7:44 AM (94 comments total)

This is not a complaint, a bug report, a callout, or a pony-request. It's just funny. Since the two posts apparently were made within a minute of each other, it somehow seems unlikely that Plutor would have seen Splatta's use of the word and said "oh cool, 'fustian,' that's perfect."
posted by adamrice at 7:46 AM on April 20, 2006

Three, and it was probably planned in order to get a MeTa thread about it, but maybe I am just being cynical.
posted by ND¢ at 7:46 AM on April 20, 2006

They don't really even make sense contextually.
posted by joegester at 7:48 AM on April 20, 2006

Cynicism? On Metafilter?
posted by adamrice at 7:49 AM on April 20, 2006

1 in 51050.
posted by KevinSkomsvold at 7:50 AM on April 20, 2006

Word of the Day for Sunday December 28, 2003

fustian \FUHS-chuhn\, noun:
1. A kind of coarse twilled cotton or cotton and linen stuff, including corduroy, velveteen, etc.
2. An inflated style of writing or speech; pompous or pretentious language.

adjective:
1. Made of fustian.
2. Pompous; ridiculously inflated; bombastic.
posted by KevinSkomsvold at 7:51 AM on April 20, 2006

I noticed the same thing, and was just on my way here to ask too. Bizzarro
posted by ajbattrick at 7:57 AM on April 20, 2006

I thought it was intentional... then I noticed they're all time-stamped the same. Freaky.
posted by dobbs at 7:59 AM on April 20, 2006

Didn't you hear? It's International Talk Like A Fustian Day.
posted by carter at 7:59 AM on April 20, 2006

Dobbs, that's even more evidence, no?
posted by CunningLinguist at 8:00 AM on April 20, 2006

Either that or they are already baked (note the various cooking references).
posted by carter at 8:02 AM on April 20, 2006

Torches and pitchforks?
posted by ND¢ at 8:03 AM on April 20, 2006

Cunning, after I posted it occured to me I wasn't completely making sense. Yes, that's more evidence.

What I initially meant (and thought) was that one poster saw the word used and then intentionally used it in their post and the third person thought that funny and did so as well. Time-stamping eliminated that possibility, but makes it pretty clear it was planned. :)
posted by dobbs at 8:05 AM on April 20, 2006

1 in 51050.

I don't know what the odds actually are, but I know that's wrong. To figure the odds, I think we'd need to know the frequency in which the word appears in general and the number of words posted to the average post. But I think it's safe to say they are much lower than 1 in 51050.
posted by scottreynen at 8:05 AM on April 20, 2006

Except Metafilter is a self-selecting community of users who visit many of the same places on the net (by design), so it's not out of the question. Words get popular for a few months on the web, just like in sixth grade.
posted by yerfatma at 8:10 AM on April 20, 2006

All three users appear on the others' contact lists, so this was probably a stunt. Well played.
posted by brain_drain at 8:11 AM on April 20, 2006

what's a fustian pact?
posted by matteo at 8:11 AM on April 20, 2006

The odds are 100%.
posted by COBRA! at 8:14 AM on April 20, 2006

How cliquey. Bleh.
posted by beniamino at 8:18 AM on April 20, 2006

I don't know what the odds actually are, but I know that's wrong.

Oh great, now we're getting all scientific and stuff.
posted by KevinSkomsvold at 8:21 AM on April 20, 2006

what's a fustian pact?

Is it anything like a fustian bargain?
posted by joe lisboa at 8:21 AM on April 20, 2006

Never tell me the odds.
posted by brownpau at 8:22 AM on April 20, 2006

Metafilter: Fustian
posted by blue_beetle at 8:25 AM on April 20, 2006

I like it.

Some OED citations, just for fun:
1592 GREENE Upst. Courtier 37 Then comes he out.. with his fustian eloquence.
1598 FLORIO, Monélle, a roguish or fustian word, a word in pedlers French, signifying wenches.
1838-9 HALLAM Hist. Lit. II. v. II. §73. 229 Pope censures the haste, negligence and fustian language of Chapman.
1884 J. SHARMAN Hist. Swearing ii. 26 The fustian ornament of somewhat spirited talk.

And just to pre-empt:
MetaFilter: The fustian ornament of somewhat spirited talk.
posted by languagehat at 8:34 AM on April 20, 2006

What
The
Fustian
Metafilter?
posted by TimeFactor at 8:35 AM on April 20, 2006

Back in college, when I was tending bar, whenever somebody would order some time-intensive, froo-froo-ey cocktail like a pink squirrel or a pina colada, I'd end up making three dozen of them that night because everyone else would see it and say, "Hey, that looks good! I think I'll try one of those myself."

My point is that "fustian" is the verbal equivalent of a frothy pina colada.
posted by Gamblor at 8:42 AM on April 20, 2006

Community weblog as performance art. Delicious.
posted by boo_radley at 8:43 AM on April 20, 2006

posted by Otis at 8:48 AM on April 20, 2006

Blah. This reminds me of a guy I knew who would wear color mismatched socks everyday just to get attention.
posted by R. Mutt at 8:50 AM on April 20, 2006

What's the big fustian?
posted by cortex at 8:56 AM on April 20, 2006

are three people negotiating to post 'meta' links in each thread simultaneously?
posted by mdn at 8:57 AM on April 20, 2006

Totally pointless. I love it.
posted by Jofus at 8:59 AM on April 20, 2006

Mystifying. I hope it continues.
posted by horsewithnoname at 9:00 AM on April 20, 2006

This fustian thread fustily continues to be fustalicious in its fustanatious fustianity.
posted by blue_beetle at 9:01 AM on April 20, 2006

Who's on fustian?
posted by kindall at 9:02 AM on April 20, 2006

according to Wordcount, "fustian" is the 62,547th most commonly used word in english, for you statisticians trying to figure the odds.
posted by TedW at 9:05 AM on April 20, 2006

that's rad as hell, but isn't one of the posts using the word incorrectly?
posted by shmegegge at 9:06 AM on April 20, 2006

porches and titchforks
posted by edgeways at 9:07 AM on April 20, 2006

finches and torchporks!
posted by cortex at 9:14 AM on April 20, 2006

GYOFB has a whole new meaning
posted by found missing at 9:31 AM on April 20, 2006

Also: Porches and titforks. Now that's living.
posted by found missing at 9:34 AM on April 20, 2006

- 1 in 51050.

- I don't know what the odds actually are, but I know that's wrong. To figure the odds, I think we'd need to know the frequency in which the word appears in general and the number of words posted to the average post. But I think it's safe to say they are much lower than 1 in 51050.

It is pretty common (at least in statistical signal processing) to use any measured data you can find as a model for the distribution of a random variable. As in, a good estimate for the expected value of a signal, in the absence of any other information, is the signal itself.

Of course there are some differences in signal processing that make that approach a little more valid..
posted by Chuckles at 9:35 AM on April 20, 2006

come on everyone, let's googlebomb Fustian!
posted by blue_beetle at 9:51 AM on April 20, 2006

We have been H4xx0r3d.
posted by fire&wings at 9:52 AM on April 20, 2006

That word count page is a cool toy.

But they claim that 'symantec' comes before 'smut' and 'insinuate' and 'homoerotic'.
posted by raedyn at 10:08 AM on April 20, 2006

Yeah, the order is backwards. I usually use symantec after visiting sites that contain those words.
posted by Gamblor at 10:13 AM on April 20, 2006

Wait, I read that as 'inseminate'. My mistake.
posted by Gamblor at 10:14 AM on April 20, 2006

I ascertain that people are overusing the word fustian.
posted by PinkStainlessTail at 10:36 AM on April 20, 2006

Fustian? It's a perfectly cromulent word.
posted by slogger at 10:37 AM on April 20, 2006

According to Querycount, it's the 26,519th most used query on Wordcount.
posted by OmieWise at 10:42 AM on April 20, 2006

So, we've delineated exactly what happened here?
posted by interrobang at 10:45 AM on April 20, 2006

Yes, this was done deliberately.

We came up with the seed for this idea almost a year ago. Our first ideas were far more elaborate, and involved puzzles or encryption (which inspired my encrypted FPP) or some sort of inter-linked hints. Since none of us have ever really created a puzzle on this scale before, nor is FPPing any of our full-time jobs, these ideas really didn't get anywhere in particular. We also wanted the posts to all be valid, decent posts in their own rights, too. We didn't want them to get deleted because they were inter-related junk. The other day, all of a sudden, we all seemed to have post topics in mind. Randomly searching for something that could a simple "keyphrase", we came across this word. Not only was it only used once before on all of MetaFilter (is anyone surprised that it was languagehat?), but its autologicality made it seem that much more appropriate.

To answer the original question, I've found these word-frequency lists that indicate that indicates the word should appear once every 769,230th word (1.30 times per million words). The chances that any random 50-word (our average wordcount) FPP would use the word would be roughly 1/15,385. That makes the probability that three consecutive posts would be so fustian-rich by chance 1 in 3,641,602,191,625.
posted by Plutor at 10:52 AM on April 20, 2006 [1 favorite]

So it's Fustian Day? Do we exchange gifts? Or beat each other with clubs? There should be some kind of ceremony...

FustianFilter.
posted by batgrlHG at 10:59 AM on April 20, 2006

We celebrate with lots of fusting. Be gentle.
posted by Gamblor at 11:00 AM on April 20, 2006

A good story, Plutor, and your link to lh's comment lead me on to this letter from Samuel Johnson to James McPherson which was linked in that FPP, and which in tone, if not in substance, fits so well into MeTa that I quote the entirety here (it doesn't really matter what it's about, but you can go to the FPP above to figure it out):

Mr. James Macpherson, ---

I received your foolish and impudent letter. Any violence offered me I shall do my best to repel and what I cannot do for myself, the law shall do for me. I hope I shall not be deterred from detecting what I think a cheat by the menaces of a ruffian.

What would you have me retract? I thought your book an imposture; I think it an imposture still. For this opinion I have given my reasons to the public, which I here dare you to refute. Your rage I defy. Your abilities, since your Homer, are not so formidable: and what I hear of your morals inclines me to pay regard, not to what you shall say, but to what you shall prove. You may print this if you will.

SAM. JOHNSON

posted by OmieWise at 11:01 AM on April 20, 2006 [1 favorite]

Most excellent.
posted by graventy at 11:02 AM on April 20, 2006

The frequentist approach would use the frequency of the event to calculate its probability. In this case, assuming no prior posts ("samples"), the probability of this happening on the following third post would have been 2/2, or 100%. Since Metafilter is up to 50K posts, and very probably "fustian" does not make it into front page posts all that often, that number will be somewhat smaller.

Let's assume that the last two posts used "fustian" but no one has precise information about its usage frequency prior to that. A Bayesian approach would consider an assumed (if hopefully reasonable) prior expectation of this event, in calculating the probability that a third usage of "fustian" would occur.

For example, if no one can remember seeing "fustian" before, it might be reasonable from prior experience to assume that the distribution of probabilities of double usage should have a very narrow peak at, say, 2 in 51050, trailing off to zero sharply in both directions. With this prior "model", along with your observations, you can calculate a posterior probability that gives you the likelihood of three consecutive fustians.

The process of choosing this prior assumption has lead to a "frequentist-Bayesian" philosophical divide among some statisticians. On this matter, Brad Efron has a number of interesting papers on using empirical data to make Bayesian analysis "more objective".
posted by Blazecock Pileon at 11:03 AM on April 20, 2006

MetaTalk: Your rage I defy!
posted by languagehat at 11:18 AM on April 20, 2006 [1 favorite]

These Rastafustians all need a brisk rogering.
posted by Kirth Gerson at 11:18 AM on April 20, 2006

It's none o' yer fustian business.
posted by Termite at 11:29 AM on April 20, 2006

You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.
posted by loquacious at 11:41 AM on April 20, 2006

Fustian.
posted by Astro Zombie at 11:44 AM on April 20, 2006

Oconomowoc.
posted by PinkStainlessTail at 11:52 AM on April 20, 2006

Keep your laws off my fustian.
posted by jefbla at 11:53 AM on April 20, 2006

Plutor: Bravo. I applaud the spirit of fun behind this.
posted by adamrice at 12:01 PM on April 20, 2006

*orders a Run Fustian from Gamblor*

And put a goddam umbrella in it this time.
posted by If I Had An Anus at 12:14 PM on April 20, 2006

*curses the tupos*
posted by If I Had An Anus at 12:15 PM on April 20, 2006

*evangelizes Zorofustianism*
posted by cortex at 12:21 PM on April 20, 2006

The way to win a battle is to be the fustian with the mostian.
posted by George_Spiggott at 12:27 PM on April 20, 2006

Ha. (And I learned something new: I only knew fustian as a cloth.)
posted by hattifattener at 12:43 PM on April 20, 2006

Oconomowoc! I went to camp there! Or nearby, at least, at Icaghowan!
posted by Astro Zombie at 12:48 PM on April 20, 2006

That's one of those Wisconsin town names that whenever you say it, people accuse you of just making it up on the spot: Oconomowoc, Wonewoc, Menasha, Kaukauna, Wauwatosa, etc.
posted by Gamblor at 1:06 PM on April 20, 2006

orders a Run Fustian...

Holy hell, that's not a drink, it's a bad dare.

"If you drank this, it was reported that you didn't need sobering up, you needed resuscitation."

Ha!
posted by Gamblor at 1:09 PM on April 20, 2006

> Oconomowoc! I went to camp there!

OMG. Is it a real place? I thought it was a Hiawatha out-take.
posted by jfuller at 1:10 PM on April 20, 2006

I would like to recommend this thread to the sidebar, just because it's a single link that encapsulates the fustian awesomeness of plutor and gang.
posted by shmegegge at 1:17 PM on April 20, 2006

You betcha.
posted by Gamblor at 1:17 PM on April 20, 2006

To answer the original question, I've found these word-frequency lists that indicate that indicates the word should appear once every 769,230th word (1.30 times per million words). The chances that any random 50-word (our average wordcount) FPP would use the word would be roughly 1/15,385. That makes the probability that three consecutive posts would be so fustian-rich by chance 1 in 3,641,602,191,625.

I'm probably the only one who was actually waiting for someone to answer that more accurately, so thanks.
posted by scottreynen at 1:50 PM on April 20, 2006

The joke is that it was named for an Indian chief, who, after marching hundreds of miles, chose to settle there. When asked why, he replied, "Oconomowoc!" ("I can no more walk.")

And, at our camp, he is said to have added, "Icaghowan." ("I can't go on.")

It was funny when I was 10.
posted by Astro Zombie at 1:59 PM on April 20, 2006

GYOFB has a whole new meaning

you mean, of course, GYOBF.

fustwit.
posted by quonsar at 2:01 PM on April 20, 2006

RTFM.
posted by weapons-grade pandemonium at 2:16 PM on April 20, 2006

Having learned that Oconomowoc is a real place, I had to look up the pronunciation; in case anybody else is wondering, the accent is on the second syllable (oh-CON-a-ma-wok). Which is not at all how I was saying it in my head. That postcard makes it look kind of fustian.
posted by languagehat at 2:50 PM on April 20, 2006

Metafilter: at least two posts with the word "fustian."
posted by maxreax at 5:05 PM on April 20, 2006

Which is not at all how I was saying it in my head.

Oh man! I wuz saying ( OH-Koh-Noh-Moh-Woh-ick.) Much more fun to say it that way, although it is hard to stop on the "Ck."

I'm fussy about how I celebrate Fustian Day; the cupcakes have to be iced with a particular shade of beige. Also, I don't wear a bustle.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 5:11 PM on April 20, 2006

Hold the perimeter, reinforcements are coming. If only you had all held off on your posts until 13th July.
posted by tellurian at 5:35 PM on April 20, 2006

Oconomowoc makes me crave okonomiyaki but not in a fustian way.
posted by shoepal at 5:41 PM on April 20, 2006

I'm going to have to remember the amazing derailing power of the word Oconomowoc. But I promise to only use it for good. In a moral relativist kind of way.
posted by PinkStainlessTail at 5:42 PM on April 20, 2006

We used to summer near Oconomowoc, in Okauchee Lake.

There is a bad joke from my youth about a native American who is too weary to walk any further, and he finally says:

"Oconomowoc."
posted by everichon at 8:21 PM on April 20, 2006

everichon, AHEM.
posted by Astro Zombie at 10:16 PM on April 20, 2006

What the? Ahem?
posted by Astro Zombie at 10:17 PM on April 20, 2006

There.
posted by Astro Zombie at 10:17 PM on April 20, 2006

Which, for some reason, makes me think of the old joke of the old puzzle: "Can you name three types of fish that begin and end with the letter K?"
posted by Jofus at 2:48 AM on April 21, 2006

sorry, "of the old joke (or puzzle)..."
posted by Jofus at 2:48 AM on April 21, 2006

How come?
posted by Kirth Gerson at 4:28 AM on April 21, 2006

I have literally no idea. I'm just sharing the goodness.
posted by Jofus at 6:11 AM on April 21, 2006