US election 2004 prediction contest

September 26, 2004 10:21 AM

Four years ago there was a MeFi Election Prediction contest (original thread, results thread). Is rcade still around here? Does he or someone else want to coordinate a contest for this year?
posted by gluechunk to MetaFilter-related at 10:21 AM (21 comments total)

I would assume if this happened it would be done on or around election day.
posted by XQUZYPHYR at 10:42 AM on September 26, 2004

I was planning on doing it again. But if someone wants to take over this time around and offer some swag, I could be persuaded to hand it over.
posted by rcade at 10:59 AM on September 26, 2004

Yes! Betting! Gambling! Election reenactments using rock-em sock-em robots!
posted by Krrrlson at 11:50 AM on September 26, 2004

I'll give $50 to the winner. Seriously. Rogers, I say post the thread one month before the election.
posted by mathowie at 12:00 PM on September 26, 2004

I'll give some of my blogger schwag from the DNC to the winner [visor, buttons, 16MB usb flash drive thingdoo with Nancy Pelosi speeches on it, blogger stickers], maybe a few DNC pins. People probably don't know this, but rcade fixed my blog feed mere DAYS before the DNC happened so that it could be read in Dave Winer's aggregator. I feel I should be giving something back, you know? Someone just tell me where to mail this stuff.
posted by jessamyn at 1:49 PM on September 26, 2004

I'll give $50 to the winner. Seriously. Rogers, I say post the thread one month before the election.

That doesn't make sense.... people should pick electoral votes and percentages four weeks before Election Day?
posted by XQUZYPHYR at 3:59 PM on September 26, 2004

Who won the other contest? The link to the winner is deadsville.
posted by iconomy at 5:13 PM on September 26, 2004

Amazing that it's been four years. Some kind of interactive feature for election night would be fun.
posted by ParisParamus at 5:35 PM on September 26, 2004

I think stewart from flickr won the 2000 election guessing game. If I remember the prizes correctly, he got a big stuffed domokun?

people should pick electoral votes and percentages four weeks before Election Day?

If the thread is started one month to the day before the election, and threads are open for 30 days here, you can make guesses right up until the last day if you like (if you want to cheat/get closest).
posted by mathowie at 5:37 PM on September 26, 2004

Ah. So the longer you wait, the better the chances of seeing the most up-to-date polls, but the faster you get in, the better your chances of picking the EV count you want, right?

Is a stuffed Domokun still the prize? I'm not sure what can top that.
posted by XQUZYPHYR at 5:55 PM on September 26, 2004

Is a stuffed Domokun still the prize? I'm not sure what can top that.

We could stuff quonsar. I'd love to see him on my mantle.

I kid because I love. CHOO! CHOO!
posted by BlueTrain at 6:00 PM on September 26, 2004

You mean stuff him with something different.
posted by Krrrlson at 6:46 PM on September 26, 2004

As I turn this proposition over in my head, and I consider the comments, it suddenly occurs to me that I don't get it. This is really like a football pool, right? It's not about proving that you really know what's going on in the election, because picking the exact EC count is going to be more a matter of chance than insight. I can predict the popular vote and EC count in general. And it's not what most people expect. Get it exactly right? Unlikely.
posted by Ethereal Bligh at 7:12 PM on September 26, 2004

I agree that an EV count is hard. Toggle three swing states and the count can flip between a 10 point loss and 100 point lead. But anyone who can call the biggest swing states -- Florida and Ohio -- I think probably stands a chance of guessing the EV count closely, given that the wrong guesses in the other in-question states will probably cancel each other out.
posted by weston at 7:37 PM on September 26, 2004

I guess that's why Matt wants to do it a month in advance. I live in New Jersey, and a month before the election I never would have guessed Pennsylvania was less of a swing for Kerry than New Jersey and Maine.
posted by XQUZYPHYR at 8:22 PM on September 26, 2004

Isn't a month in advance next week?
posted by amberglow at 8:30 PM on September 26, 2004

Tuesday will be five weeks until the election; Sunday will be 30 days until Election Day.
posted by XQUZYPHYR at 9:03 PM on September 26, 2004

I bag the tie scenario.
posted by CunningLinguist at 6:23 AM on September 27, 2004

The winner should receive euros.
posted by liam at 8:03 AM on September 27, 2004

euros and an eu passport : >
posted by amberglow at 5:13 PM on September 27, 2004

posted by namespan at 12:54 AM on September 28, 2004