MetaTalk

Back in January, on the eve of the Iowa caucuses, I set up an election prediction contest for you fine folks, and got 74 ballots in response. Nearly ten months (and ten million comments) later, the results are in: congratulations to Cash4Lead, for his remarkably far-sighted prediction of the winners of Iowa, New Hampshire, Super Tuesday, the nominations, the House majority, and even Clinton's VP pick! A $50 donation to the charity of your choice is yours. Oodles more analysis of the collective wisdom inside [more inside]
posted by Rhaomi on Nov 20, 2016 - 14 comments

It's been an unbelievably unpredictable primary season this year, and the Iowa caucuses are less than 30 hours away. So why not get ahead of the curve with a TRUMP-SIZED election prediction contest? I'm thinking Iowa (Dem/GOP), New Hampshire (Dem/GOP), Super Tuesday (Dem/GOP), final nominee (Dem/GOP), and general election winner, with ties broken by House/Senate control, Veepstakes speculation, and as much analysis/rationalization/weeping as you feel appropriate. Prize: One (1) $50 ($fifty) donation to the charity of your choice (split equally if necessary), and eternal bragging rights over the ruins of the punditocracy. Deadline is 8:00 PM Eastern time Monday, when the caucuses start. (Feel free to enter after Iowa or New Hampshire vote, but be advised that your prediction for those states will not count!) See inside for entry form. [more inside]
posted by Rhaomi on Jan 31, 2016 - 141 comments

Now that Florida has finished counting votes (always a challenge for us), the 2012 presidential election results are 332 electoral votes for Obama and 206 for Romney -- barring faithless electors. The popular vote is 50.6% Obama, 47.9% Romney and 1.5% other. The Nate Silver Medal for Political Prognostication goes to JKevinKing. J. Kevin was one of 15 people to tie for first in the electoral half of the contest with a perfect prediction. He finished third in the popular vote half, ahead of I am the Walrus and UrineSoakedRube who tied for ninth. The $50 Threadless gift certificate and life-size cardboard Joe Biden are on the way to JKevinKing as soon as I send them. Please keep Joe in the lifestyle to which he has become accustomed. [more inside]
posted by rcade on Nov 12, 2012 - 25 comments

The pundits and psychics have already weighed in. Now it's your turn in MetaFilter's (mostly) quadrennial presidential prediction contest. The winner will receive a $50 Threadless gift certificate and a life-size cardboard Joe Biden. To enter, predict the percentage of the vote that President Obama, Mitt Romney and Everybody Else will receive and the number of electoral votes that Obama, Romney and Everybody Else will receive. Entries must be submitted before Dixville Notch, N.H., reports its vote early Tuesday morning. [more inside]
posted by rcade on Nov 5, 2012 - 360 comments

And the winner of the 2008 MetaFilter Election Prediction Contest is... [more inside]
posted by gsteff on Nov 5, 2008 - 32 comments