2006 MetaFilter Election Prediction Contest

November 1, 2006 8:36 PM

A bit late, it's the 2006 MetaFilter Election Prediction Contest!
posted by gsteff to MetaFilter-Related at 8:36 PM (128 comments total)

Participants must:

1. Predict the final party breakdown of seats in the Senate (including independents, if any).
2. Predict the final party breakdown of seats in the House (including independents, if any).
3. As a tiebreaker, predict the final vote percentages for Lamont, Lieberman and Schlesinger in the Connecticut Senate race.

The winner is the participant with the most accurate Senate prediction (your score is the sum of the differences between your prediction and the actual outcome for each party, lower being better... for example, if the house outcome is 220/215/0 and you predicted 225/210/0, your score is 5 + 5 + 0 = 10), with ties broken by your House prediction, with further ties broken by your Connecticut prediction, with further ties broken according to who posted first.

One entry per human being- sockpuppet trickery is bad form. All entries must be posted by noon (Eastern Standard Time), Friday November 3rd.

The winner gets two copies of the MetaFilter Compilation CD (including domestic or international shipping as needed). They make great stocking stuffers!
posted by gsteff at 8:40 PM on November 1, 2006

Entries should be posted to this thread, naturally.

And just for clarity, I accidentally described the Senate scoring method using an example from the House, but it's the same system. If you predict a Senate that's 48/50/2 (Dem/Rep/Ind) and it the actual outcome is 49/49/2, your senate score is 1 + 1 + 0 = 2. Lower scores are better, and ties are broken by your House score, then your Connecticut prediction, using the same method.
posted by gsteff at 8:45 PM on November 1, 2006

I predict Matt and Jessamyn will hold onto the executive office around here.
posted by scarabic at 8:47 PM on November 1, 2006

im watchin this
posted by Ceiling Cat at 8:51 PM on November 1, 2006

Liar. You're in my gunny sack. Give me your crackberry.
posted by loquacious at 9:08 PM on November 1, 2006

To start us off..

Senate: 49 D, 49 R, 2 I (Lieberman and Sanders)
House: 222 D, 213 R, 0 I
Connecticut: Lamont 42%, Lieberman 45%, Schlesinger 11%
posted by gsteff at 9:13 PM on November 1, 2006

Senate: 49 D, 49 R, 2 I (Lieberman and Sanders)
House: 222 D, 213 R, 0 I
Connecticut: Lamont 42%, Lieberman 44%, Schlesinger 12%

What's the highest bid, Bob?

OK -- I'm going to bid $501.
posted by fishfucker at 9:32 PM on November 1, 2006

Okay -- I'll bite:

Dems: Pennsylvania, Montana, Ohio, Virginia, Missouri, Rhode Island, and New Jersey
Republicans: Maryland (gasp!), Tennessee, and Arizona

Lieberman takes Connecticut.

So - Republicans keep control with Cheney tiebreaking. 50/48/2

The house will flip to the Dems by - let's say - 228/207.

44/42/14 (Lieberman / Lamont / Schlesinger)

Certainly hope I'm wrong about the Senate though.
posted by icosahedral at 9:33 PM on November 1, 2006

Doh :). You can design it next time, fishfucker.
posted by gsteff at 9:37 PM on November 1, 2006

Senate: 50 D, 48 R, 2 I
House: 225 D, 208 R, 2 I
Connecticut: Lamont 47%, Lieberman 43%, Schlesinger 10%
posted by dejah420 at 10:19 PM on November 1, 2006 [1 favorite]

The loser will clearly be the American people.
posted by Eideteker at 10:34 PM on November 1, 2006 [1 favorite]

Senate: 51R 47D 2I
House: 215R 220D 0I
Connecticut: Lamont 49%, Lieberman 45%, Schlesinger 6%

Impeachment proceedings started before April 12th.
posted by Kickstart70 at 11:07 PM on November 1, 2006

I don't know anything, but I'll take a crack at it...

Senate: 49 D, 49 R, 2 I (Lieberman and Sanders)
House: 222 D, 213 R, 0 I
Connecticut: Lamont 42%, Lieberman 45%, Schlesinger 11%

Like that?
posted by team lowkey at 11:11 PM on November 1, 2006

Senate: 48 D, 50 R, 2I
House: 219 D, 214 R, 0I
Connecticut: Lieberman 47%, Lamont 46%, Schlesinger 7%

CT recounts to commence Nov. 8. (Connecticut: the New Ohio)
posted by brina at 11:44 PM on November 1, 2006

Senate: 49 D, 50 R, 1I
House: 221 D, 214 R, 0I
Connecticut: Lieberman 45%, Lamont 46%, Schlesinger 8%
posted by edgeways at 12:39 AM on November 2, 2006

Kickstart70, whos the second I if Lamont wins Ct?
posted by edgeways at 1:17 AM on November 2, 2006

Senate: 50R, 49D, 1I
House: 235D, 200R
Connecticut: Sadly, Lieberman 49%, Lamont 46%, Schlesinger, 5%
posted by Plutor at 3:41 AM on November 2, 2006

Senate: 48D, 50R, 2I
House: 225D, 210R
Connecticut: Lieberman 49%, Lamont 41%, Schlesinger 10%
posted by EarBucket at 4:12 AM on November 2, 2006

Senate: 49R/49D/2I
House: 219D/216R/0I
CT: Lieberman 48%/Lamont 46%/Schelsinger 6%

[*curses Indonesian postal system and Orange County, CA Registrar of Voters for losing absentee ballot requested months and months ago; cheers everyone on from sidelines, disenfranchised*]
posted by mdonley at 4:35 AM on November 2, 2006

Senate: 50R/48D/2I
House: 242D/193R/
CT: Lieberman 49%/Lamont 45%/Schlesinger 6%
posted by CunningLinguist at 5:21 AM on November 2, 2006

Senate: 50D, 49R, 1I
House: 229D, 209R
CT: Lamont 44, Joementum 43, Schlesinger 13
posted by Saucy Intruder at 5:21 AM on November 2, 2006

Speaking of the MetaFilter Compilation CD, I want to use this opportunity to thank cortex for the updates on the new and improved site, including making an RSS feed available. Thanks, cortex!
posted by terrapin at 5:37 AM on November 2, 2006

Senate: 51R/47D/2I
House: 217D/218R/
CT: Lieberman 52%/Lamont 43%/Schlesinger 5%
posted by JohnnyGunn at 5:54 AM on November 2, 2006

Senate 49D 50R 1I
House: 230D, 208R
CT: Lamont 44, Lieberman 40, Schlesinger 16 (there is just no way that 90% of republicans are going to go 7 names down on the list to pull Lieberman's name when schlesinger is right at the top with a big fat (R) next to him.
posted by empath at 6:15 AM on November 2, 2006

I haven't looked at poll numbers so I'm just going to run the random number generator

Senate 51D/47R/2I

House 220R/215D

Ct: Lieberman 45%/Lamont 35%/Schlesinger 20%
posted by drezdn at 6:17 AM on November 2, 2006

Drezden-- those CT #s are clearly detached from reality. If schlesinger pulls 20%, Lamont wins by a landslide.
posted by empath at 6:33 AM on November 2, 2006

Senate: 18R / 524D / 22I
House: 4R
Ct: Lieberman 82% / Lamont 83% / Mary Kate Olsen 84%
posted by thirteenkiller at 6:46 AM on November 2, 2006 [1 favorite]

Drezden-- those CT #s are clearly detached from reality. If schlesinger pulls 20%, Lamont wins by a landslide.

I'll firmly admit to pulling from my ass, with a slight bit of figuring that 10% of pro-Lieberman forces won't scan all the way to the bottom of the ballot and will back Schlesinger instead.
posted by drezdn at 6:53 AM on November 2, 2006

Senate: 51R/48D/1I
House: 220R/215D
CT: Lieberman 46%/Lamont 43%/Schlesinger 11%
posted by hangashore at 6:55 AM on November 2, 2006

Boy will our faces be red when it turns out thirteenkiller's predictions become true, as he spearheads Hack-the-Vote 2006
posted by drezdn at 7:00 AM on November 2, 2006

Senate: 48 D, 51 R, 1 I
House: 218 D, 217 R
Lieberman 49%, Lamont 41%, Schlesinger 10%
posted by mr_crash_davis at 7:10 AM on November 2, 2006

Senate: 50 R, 49 D, 1 I
House: 225 D, 210 R
Connecticut: Lieberman 45%, Lamont 35%, Schlesinger 10%.
posted by ibmcginty at 8:10 AM on November 2, 2006

Senate: 49 D, 49 R, 2 I
House: 225 D, 210 R
Lieberman 47%, Lamont 42%, Schlesinger 11%
posted by taosbat at 8:11 AM on November 2, 2006

Senate: 50R 48D 2I (Lieberman and Sanders)
House: 220D, 215R
CT: Lamont:43%, Lieberman 42.9%, Schlesinger 14%

I still think Schlesinger is going to do better than people are giving him credit for - from what I'm hearing, he is absolutely KILLING both Lamont and Holy Joe in the debates. That could only draw votes from Lieberman, as Lamont's support is entrenched, and Lieberman's support is coming from people who aren't awfully inclined to vote for a Democrat (especially one who ran as Al Gore's VP)anyway. The question is, will it be enough? If it is, it won't be by much. I think that race is going to end up with a sub 1% margin of victory, in either direction.
posted by deadmessenger at 8:50 AM on November 2, 2006

Senate: 49/49/2
House: 222 D 213 R

CT: JOementum 44; Lamont 40; Schlesinger 16
posted by Mister_A at 9:03 AM on November 2, 2006

here goes nothin' ...

Senate: 50 R, 49 D, 1 I
House: 223 D, 212 R
Connecticut: Lieberman 35%, Lamont 40%, Schlesinger 15%.
posted by whatnot at 9:19 AM on November 2, 2006

I predict that nothing will change.
posted by It's Raining Florence Henderson at 9:19 AM on November 2, 2006 [1 favorite]

Senate: 49D, 50R, 1I

House: 218D, 217R, 0I

CT: Ned "I'm not Joe Lieberman!" Lamont, 44%; Joe "Lemme blow smoke up your ass" Lieberman, 39%; "But I'm the real R here!" Schelesinger, 17%
posted by JMOZ at 9:20 AM on November 2, 2006

deadmessenger, you have Lamont beating Lieberman, and Lieberman still in Senate.
posted by Wulfgar! at 9:37 AM on November 2, 2006

Senate: 50 R, 48 D, 2 I
House: 234 D, 201 R, 0 I
Connecticut: Lieberman 44%, Lamont 41%, Schlesinger 14%
posted by RichardP at 9:38 AM on November 2, 2006

Wulfgar!: I think Joe will show up even if he loses.
posted by empath at 9:42 AM on November 2, 2006

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2006/11/tea_leaf_watch_1.html

early voting in AZ has the Democrat ahead of John Kyl by 4% -- all the polls of likely voters leading up to his have Kyl up by 6 or 7%.. nobody even thought AZ was in contention. If that holds up and it's a nationwide pattern, we're looking at a blow-out of historic proportions
posted by empath at 9:49 AM on November 2, 2006

Senate: 69 R, 45 D, 0 I
House: 240 R, 225 D, 0 I
CT: Lamont 49%, Lieberman 40%, Schlesinger 12%
posted by casconed at 9:52 AM on November 2, 2006

note, plz - this race will see an increase in the total number of senators. thx.
posted by casconed at 9:53 AM on November 2, 2006

Senate: 51 Dem, 48 Rep, 1 Ind.

House: 222 Dem, 213 Rep.

Lamont 43%, Lieberman 40%, Schlesinger 17%
posted by Rumple at 9:57 AM on November 2, 2006

Senate: 51D, 48R, 1I
House: 234D, 201R, 0I
CT-Sen: Lamont 44.2, Lieberman 43.6, Schlesinger 12.2
posted by scrump at 10:09 AM on November 2, 2006

Senate 50 Dem, 48 Rep, 1 Ind (caucusing with D).

House Dem +32 seats. (Been my prediction for weeks). I'm not giving the party breakdown because everybody counts the numbers different, some including the Resident Commissioner and the D.C. Nonvoting delegate etc.
posted by Ironmouth at 10:19 AM on November 2, 2006

Lieberman 47, Lamont 42 Schleschinger 5
posted by Ironmouth at 10:21 AM on November 2, 2006

Can I cynically predict a voter turnout of less than 30%, exit polls that don't jibe with the results, and continued Republican control of both House and Senate?
posted by jokeefe at 10:28 AM on November 2, 2006

Yeah, what jokeefe said.
posted by Melinika at 10:43 AM on November 2, 2006

Wulfgar: Uhm... I was... um... hedging my bets. (crawls under table)
posted by deadmessenger at 11:03 AM on November 2, 2006

whoops, my JOEmentum numbers didn't add up right (house and senate predictions stay the same):

Senate: 50 R, 49 D, 1 I
House: 223 D, 212 R
Connecticut: Lieberman 37%, Lamont 45%, Schlesinger 18%.
posted by whatnot at 12:04 PM on November 2, 2006

I'm a blissfully ignorant non-American so I'll just use a random number generator (and a few arbitrary decisions).

Okay, random number between 1 and 33 for the number of Democrats winning Senate races: 23. Flip a coin to find out if there will be an independent: Yes.

So that makes 50 D, 49 R, 1 I

Random number between 1 and 435 for Democrats in the House: 266 (got 328 on the first try and decided to keep going until I got something between 150 and 300). Coin flip says there will be an Independant.

So that's 266 D, 168 R, 1 I


Random number between 1 and 100 for Lieberman: 42. Random number out of the remaining 68 for Lamont: 38 (after rejecting 9 and 64).

So that's
Lieberman: 42%
Lamont: 38%
Schlesinger: 20%
posted by winston at 12:04 PM on November 2, 2006

(doh! forgot to spell-check)
posted by winston at 12:05 PM on November 2, 2006

Senate: 49 R, 51 D
House: 235 R, 230 D

CT: Lamont 17%, Lieberman 16%, Schlesinger 21%

With a Surprise 46% going to Pat Buchanan

Or Maybe the Commies invade the Midwest and Patrick Swazie has to save us from the surprisingly inept Soviet Army. WOLVERINES!!
posted by French Fry at 12:43 PM on November 2, 2006

I'm a blissfully ignorant non-American so I'll just use a random number generator (and a few arbitrary decisions).


Me too! Me too! ('cept it's ALL arbitrary)

52 D, 47 R, 1 I

234 D, 210 R, 1 I

Lieberman: 47%
Lamont: 41%
Schlesinger: 12%
posted by cholly at 12:44 PM on November 2, 2006

Senate: 47 R, 52 D, 2 I
House: 208 R, 227 D
CT: Lamont 42.3%, Lieberman 41.8%, Schlesinger 15.9%
posted by jefbla at 1:09 PM on November 2, 2006

50 D, 49 R, 1 I
240 D, 195 R
41% Lam, 40% Lie, 18% Sch

Some of these predictions don't make any sense with only 1 I and Lieberman winning (Sanders loses?), or 2 I and Lieberman losing (who is the 2nd independent?).
posted by scottreynen at 1:32 PM on November 2, 2006

We clueless foreigners do have fun.

48 R, 51 D, 1 I

221 R, 224 D

Lieberman: 46% Lamont: 41% Schlesinger: 13%
posted by Serial Killer Slumber Party at 1:34 PM on November 2, 2006

Senate: 50 D, 48 R, 2 I (Lieberman and Sanders)
House: 226 D, 209 R, 0 I
Connecticut: Lamont 40%, Lieberman 48%, Schlesinger 12%
posted by lackutrol at 1:38 PM on November 2, 2006

Senate: R-52, D-46, I-2

House: D-221 R-214

Conn: Lieberman-44%, Lamont-40%, S-16%
posted by spaltavian at 1:45 PM on November 2, 2006

Senate: 48 D, 51 R, 1 I (Sanders)
House: 220 D, 215 R, 0 I
Connecticut: Lamont 46%, Lieberman 42%, Schlesinger 12%


Just for clarity to the "2 I" people: I'm pretty sure that legally, Lieberman is still a registered Democrat, and if he won that means it would be a Democratic seat, not an Independent seat... he merely is running on a ticket other than the Democratic Party line.

My understanding is that both Lieberman and Sanders have said they're going to caucus with the Democrats. (To me that sounds like Lieberman is still an Independent, but who knows.)
posted by Amizu at 1:58 PM on November 2, 2006

I think Lieberman will be a Democratic Senator, who happened to run as an Independent.
posted by ibmcginty at 3:41 PM on November 2, 2006

Senate: 51R-49D
Lieberman wins his race and switches party, tilting the Senate back to R (he's lying when he says he'll vote with Dems--and Rove's pumped tons of money into his race)

House: 219 D, 214 R (or whatever makes a 5-seat difference)

Lamont: 45 %
Lieberman: 47%
Schlesinger: 8%

Watch too, for CT legal action against Lieberman when he jumps to R.
posted by amberglow at 3:58 PM on November 2, 2006

(oops--i counted Sanders as a D)--make Senate--51R-48D, 1I
posted by amberglow at 3:59 PM on November 2, 2006

Senate: 51R, 48D, 1I

House: 213R, 222D, 0I

Connecticut: 44% Lamont, 39% Lieberman, 15% Schlesinger
posted by x_3mta3 at 4:09 PM on November 2, 2006

Senate: 50D, 48R, 2I
House: 228D, 207R, 0I
Connecticut: Lieberman 46%, Lamont 42%, Schlesinger 11%
posted by rbellon at 5:03 PM on November 2, 2006

SENATE: 51 GOP, 47 DEM, 2 IND
HOUSE: 220 GOP, 215 DEM, 0 IND
Lieberman: 47
Lamont: 44
Schlesinger: 9
posted by beagle at 6:12 PM on November 2, 2006

Just for clarity to the "2 I" people: I'm pretty sure that legally, Lieberman is still a registered Democrat, and if he won that means it would be a Democratic seat, not an Independent seat... he merely is running on a ticket other than the Democratic Party line.

This is my belief as well, but it seemed the consensus was to count him as an independent for this contest, and I wanted to indicate I thought Lieberman would win.

If Liberman is still considered a Democrat, my prediction would read as R-52, D-47, I-1
posted by spaltavian at 6:30 PM on November 2, 2006

Senate: 50R, 48D, 2I (if we consider Lieberman as I)
House: 219D, 216R
Lieberman: 50
Lamont: 41
Schlesinger: 8
posted by Krrrlson at 6:48 PM on November 2, 2006

Civil war.
posted by homunculus at 7:39 PM on November 2, 2006

D = 50, R = 48, I = 2
D = 239, R = 196
Lieberman 47 Lamont 41 Schlessinger 12
posted by madamjujujive at 7:43 PM on November 2, 2006

Kinda silly, but here:

Reps keep the Senate, 52 to 46 with 2 Independents, Lieberman and Sanders.

Dems take the House, 219-216.

Lieberman over Lamont, 49% to 38%, with 10% for Schlesinger and 3% for Ferrucci, etc.
posted by mediareport at 9:22 PM on November 2, 2006

OK, so who won?
posted by Eideteker at 9:32 PM on November 2, 2006

ok..

senate: 49-R, 49-D, 2-I (Lieberman and Sanders)
house: 207-R, 228-D
CT: Lieberman 52, Lamont 34, Schlesinger 10
posted by sergeant sandwich at 11:49 PM on November 2, 2006

Senate: 47 D, 51 R, 2 I (Lieberman and Sanders)
House: 223 D, 212 R, 0 I
Connecticut: Lamont 40%, Lieberman 46%, Schlesinger 12%
posted by Kwantsar at 11:55 PM on November 2, 2006

Senate: 49 D, 50 R, 1 I
House: 223 D, 212 R
Connecticut: Lamont 39%, Lieberman 41%, Schlesinger 10%
posted by ruelle at 2:55 AM on November 3, 2006

I predict a coalition between CDA and VVD
posted by jouke at 3:11 AM on November 3, 2006

Senate: 50 Dem, 49 Rep, 1 Ind
House: 230 Dem, 204 Rep, 1 Ind
CT: Lamont 42%, Lieberman 48%, Schlesinger 10%
posted by smackfu at 6:41 AM on November 3, 2006

Damnit Madam JJJ, I thought I'd cannily cornered the market on the wave possibility by being the only one with the GOP keeping less than 200 seats.
posted by CunningLinguist at 7:35 AM on November 3, 2006

There's going to be legal action against Lieberman, regardless He's been engaging in pretty blatant vote-buying. In the primary, and the general election.
posted by empath at 7:55 AM on November 3, 2006

Senate: 51 D, 47 R, 2 I
House: 221 D, 214 R, 0 I
Connecticut: Lamont 38%, Lieberman 42%, Schlesinger 15%
posted by Demogorgon at 9:27 AM on November 3, 2006

Oops, was i late?
posted by Demogorgon at 10:55 AM on November 3, 2006

D48, R50, I2
D196, R239
Lieberman 42 Lamont 41 Schlessinger 17

At least this way I can listen to my mefi compilation disc during my flight from the country.
posted by Skorgu at 11:41 AM on November 3, 2006

D 49 R 49 I 2
D 221 R 212 and two won't be decided until December and by then this contest will be over.
Liebschin 44.2%, L'Amour 41.2%, Slushfunder 14% (misc. 0.6%).
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 11:57 AM on November 3, 2006

50 D; 49 R; 1 I
220 D; 214 R; 1 I
posted by emanresubmud at 12:33 PM on November 3, 2006

"Just for clarity to the "2 I" people: I'm pretty sure that legally, Lieberman is still a registered Democrat, and if he won that means it would be a Democratic seat, not an Independent seat... he merely is running on a ticket other than the Democratic Party line"

That was how I was counting it as well.
posted by mr_crash_davis at 2:07 PM on November 3, 2006

Another interesting Lieberman fact, from his own mouth: This morning Joe Lieberman talked to Imus and told said that he would caucus with Democrats to maintain his seniority, but will vote "very independent". (video there too--it really is all about him--he won't vote with the party, but he'll take a chairmanship or something)
posted by amberglow at 2:29 PM on November 3, 2006

Senate: 53 D, 45 R, 2 I
House: 220 D, 215 R, 0I
Connecticut: Lieberman 40%, Lamont 50%, Schlesinger 10%
posted by davejay at 2:35 PM on November 3, 2006

You know, I think I'll tabluate these and try to get a have-mind answer out of this thread. Give me the weekend.
posted by mwhybark at 4:04 PM on November 3, 2006

mwhybark, that sounds like a cool idea, but some of these predictions are pretty crazy--Skorgu predicts a Democratic loss of 6 House seats and pickup of 3 Senate seats, along with a big Lamont surge?

Davejay's is almost as crazy but at least consistent-ish.
posted by lackutrol at 5:29 PM on November 3, 2006

The crazy predictions usually win.
posted by smackfu at 8:46 PM on November 3, 2006

I predict that the Reublicans will win across the board, but there will be no paper trail to support it
posted by growabrain at 8:51 PM on November 3, 2006

Growabrain has it. None of you are taking into account that none of the close races has enough margin in it to account for the Diebold effect, and exit polling has been banned. Therefor, beagle's numbers look about right to me. GOP will keep a small majority in both chambers.
posted by The Bellman at 7:07 AM on November 4, 2006

Here's what i came up with. I'm including the data table so that gsteff doesn't have to redo the work i did, and to allow people to note needed corrections to the tabulation.


SENATE HOUSE CT


D R I D R I NED JOE SCH


AVG 49 50 2 225 212 0 42 44 12


MEDIAN 49 50 2 222 213 0 42 44 12






SENATE HOUSE CT


D R I D R I NED JOE SCH MKO PAT


gsteff 49 49 2 222 213 0 42 45 11


fishfucker 49 49 2 222 213 0 42 44 12


isocahedral 48 50 2 228 207 0 42 44 14


dejah420 50 48 2 225 208 2 47 43 10


kickstart70 47 51 2 220 215 0 49 45 6


team lowkey 49 49 2 222 213 0 45 42 11


brina 48 50 2 219 214 0 46 47 7


edgeways 49 50 1 221 214 0 46 45 8


plutor 49 50 1 235 200 0 46 49 5


earbucket 48 50 2 235 200 0 41 49 10


mdonley 49 49 2 219 216 0 46 48 6


cunninglinguist 48 50 2 242 193 0 45 49 6


saucy intruder 50 49 1 229 209 0 44 43 13


johnnygunn 47 51 2 217 218 0 43 52 5


empath 49 50 1 230 208 0 44 40 16


drezdn 51 47 2 215 220 0 35 45 20


hangashore 48 51 1 215 220 0 43 46 11


mcd 48 51 1 218 217 0 41 49 10


ibmcginty 49 50 1 225 210 0 35 45 10


taosbat 49 49 2 225 210 0 42 47 11


deadmessenger 48 50 2 220 215 0 43 42.9 14


mister_a 49 49 2 222 213 0 40 44 16


whatnot 49 50 1 223 212 0 45 37 18


jmoz 49 50 1 218 217 0 44 39 17


richardp 48 50 2 234 201 0 41 44 14


casconed 45 69 0 225 240 0 49 40 12


rumple 51 48 1 222 213 0 44.2 43.6 12.2


winston 50 49 1 266 168 1 38 42 20


french fry 51 49 0 230 235 0 17 16 21 46


cholly 52 47 1 234 210 1 41 47 12


jefbla 52 47 2 227 208 0 42.3 41.8 15.9


scottreynen 50 49 1 240 195 0 41 40 18


sksp 51 48 1 224 221 0 41 46 13


XQUZYPHYR 49 50 1 229 206 0 44 40 14


lackutrol 50 48 2 226 209 0 40 48 12


spaltavian 46 52 2 221 214 0 40 44 16


amizu 48 51 1 220 215 0 46 42 12


amberglow 48 51 1 219 214 0 45 47 8


x_3mta3 48 51 1 222 213 0 44 39 15


rbellon 50 48 2 228 207 0 46 42 11


beagle 47 51 2 215 220 0 44 47 9


krrrlson 48 50 2 219 216 0 41 50 8


madamjujujive 50 48 2 239 196 0 41 47 12


mediareport 46 52 2 219 216 0 38 49 10


sergeant sandwich 49 49 2 228 207 0 34 52 10


kwantsar 47 51 2 223 212 0 40 46 12


ruelle 49 50 1 223 212 0 39 41 10


smackfu 50 49 1 230 204 1 42 48 10


(LATE FROM HERE DOWN) demogorgon 47 51 2 221 214 0 38 42 15


skorgu 48 50 2 196 239 0 41 42 17


dances_with_sneetches 49 49 2 221 212 0 41.2 44.2 14


emanresubmud 50 49 1 220 214 1 - - -


davejay 53 45 2 220 215 0 50 40 10





(VALID ENTRIES NOT AVERAGED FROM HERE DOWN) thirteenkiller 524 18 22 0 4 0 83 82 84


ironmouth 50 48 1 +32 - - 42 47 5


posted by mwhybark at 12:21 PM on November 4, 2006

oh for christ's sake. No tables?
posted by mwhybark at 12:22 PM on November 4, 2006

looks like the tags are in there, but with extry br tags.
posted by mwhybark at 12:24 PM on November 4, 2006

Also, to interpret:

Rs maintain Senate but Ds have a voting majority unless Joe goes R, 50-49-2.
Ds claim house, 225-212 or 222-213 (dunno where the number diff comes from).

Joe wins Connecticuit with 44% over Ned's 42% and Schleshinger's 12%, which leaves 2% for Mary Kay Olson and/or Pat Buchanan.
posted by mwhybark at 12:34 PM on November 4, 2006

Rs maintain Senate but Ds have a voting majority unless Joe goes R, 50-49-2.

Hm. Except that this adds up to 101 instead of 100. If the Rs have 50 then Ds+Joe can't be more than 50.

I guess it's a problem with averaging + rounding. Similarly, your House adds up to 437 (or 438) instead of 435. (Now that I scroll back through the posts, it looks like there are a number of them that don't add up to 435, so that's probably where this problem comes from)
posted by winston at 7:43 PM on November 4, 2006

Senate: 49 D, 49 R, 2 I (Lieberman and Sanders)
House: 236 D, 199 R, 0 I
Connecticut: Lamont 40%, Lieberman 46%, Schlesinger 14%
posted by raf at 7:51 PM on November 4, 2006

hm, that senate extra is interesting - it looks as is the great majority of respondents did total 100, but the column totals consistently run to the averages as caclulated. My inclination would be to bump one off the D column but I'm sure there's a more accurate way of accounting for it that reflects the data and the constraints.

I did round up to zero decimal places as there were only a couple entrants that used decimal notation. However, I think they were all in the CT race, and so that rounding shouldn't affect the grouped numbers in the Senate or House. I did not attempt any more fancy constraints.

As noted, the data's in that post; view source, cut and paste, strip BR tags, and have at it!
posted by mwhybark at 10:01 PM on November 4, 2006

also, more good stuff over in AxMe.
posted by mwhybark at 10:12 PM on November 4, 2006

Haven't USian politicians done so much gerrymandering that there's only one contested seat in the whole country - and that one is to be be decided by sealed bids to the chairman of Diebold?

(Just asking.)
posted by mr. strange at 8:41 AM on November 5, 2006

"USian"? WTF is that?
posted by smackfu at 9:39 AM on November 5, 2006

I'm just curious, do you folks really think that (counting Joe as a D), the D's are going to take the Senate? I haven't seen a single responsible poll in the last few weeks that says that. Do you really think we are going to take three out of the four races that are consistently in the margin of error? Tenesee? Democrat? I just don't see it.
posted by The Bellman at 9:48 AM on November 5, 2006

You would expect to get two of the four, so hoping for one extra doesn't seem that irrational. Not likely, but you have to have hope.
posted by smackfu at 10:02 AM on November 5, 2006

USian. Come to Canada. You'll learn to love it.
posted by Rumple at 10:09 AM on November 5, 2006

And yes, the elephant in the room through all of this is gerrymandering. The shape of some congressional districts is completely absurd. Just grid the damn country.

This article from American Scientist is from the 1990s but the issues haven't changed much. Nice maps, like this one showing insane districts. (The postscript version will open in adobe reader or preview of you ask it to)
posted by Rumple at 10:17 AM on November 5, 2006

Senate: 49 D, 49 R, 2 I

Lieberman jumps to the Republicans.

House: 235 D, 200 R

CT: Lieberman 45, Lamont 41, Schl. 14
posted by gimonca at 10:37 AM on November 5, 2006

Senate: 49 D, 49 R, Sanders and Lieberman.

House: 218 D, 217 R.

CT: Lieberman 50, Lamont 42, Schlesinger 6.
posted by box at 1:13 PM on November 5, 2006

Senate: 48 D, 50 R, 2 I

(Burns hangs on to his seat; Allen squeaks it out after a couple of recounts)

House: 222 D, 213 R, 0 I

(two surprises: TX-22 returns a Republican despite needing a write-in; Richard Pombo gets thrown out on his fat ass)

CT: Lieberman 48, Lamont 42, Schlesinger 10
posted by dw at 6:37 PM on November 5, 2006

USian. Come to Canada. You'll learn to love it.

Which "United States" do you mean, America or Mexico?
posted by spaltavian at 7:21 PM on November 5, 2006

Senate: 49 D, 49 R, 1 I (Sanders)
House: 220 D, 215 R, 0 I
Connecticut: Lamont 42%, Lieberman 46%, Schlesinger 10%
posted by j-urb at 3:43 PM on November 6, 2006

You're short a Senate seat there, J-Urb. Not that that wouldn't be a good idea if we could work it. Cheney breaking ties isn't exactly optimal.
posted by The Bellman at 5:49 AM on November 7, 2006

i put the tradesports lines in this thread. dunno if matt will allow it ;) i'll go with the current betting line and say 6 dem pickups + lieberman wins.
posted by spiderwire at 6:50 AM on November 7, 2006

Senate: 49 D, 50 R, 1I
House: 231 D, 204 R
Connecticut: Lieberman 47%, Lamont 45%, Schlesinger 7%
posted by norm111 at 7:38 AM on November 7, 2006

Senate: 51D, 49R,
House: 224D, 209R, 2I
Connecticut: Liberman 44%, Lamont 44.1%, Schlesinger 10%
posted by zhivota at 7:52 AM on November 7, 2006

Nice maps, like this one showing insane districts.

These maps may unfortunately be useful too -- gifs --
New voting machines, by year, nationwide by county map.

Type of voting machine, nationwide by county map.
posted by amberglow at 8:41 AM on November 7, 2006

Bah, if I could change things I would. Oh well, 232, 203 0 - 49, 49, 2. 48% 40% 12%, is what i think now. But it doesn't truely matter.
posted by edgeways at 11:38 AM on November 7, 2006

Senate: 48D, 50R, 2I (Lieberman, Sanders)
House: 230D, 205R
CT: Lieberman 51%, Lamont 42%, Schlesinger 7%
posted by stemlot at 11:41 AM on November 7, 2006

So, given the number of Absentee ballots (almost 25%, according to a story Drudge linked last week) and provisionals, we won't be *awarding* this untli there are certified results, sometime next week, right? :-)
posted by baylink at 8:54 PM on November 7, 2006

This was like watching a bunch of fat sports fans armchair quarterbacking, only with less pizza grease and fewer empty beer cans.
posted by Eideteker at 9:02 PM on November 7, 2006

The Republicans running Iraq?
posted by mwhybark at 11:22 PM on November 7, 2006

Well done, crash, if indeed the polls in CT stay where they are.
posted by Eideteker at 11:37 PM on November 7, 2006

informally it looks like earbucket might be closest.
From CNN and who's ahead in the remaining undecided-s it looks like 49 49 2 for the senate, 231 - 203 for the house (D/R), and 50 lieb, 40 lam, 10 the other guy. Washington #8 is the only one with too few votes counted to even say who's legitimately ahead.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:24 AM on November 8, 2006

informally it looks like earbucket might be closest.

Hot damn!
posted by EarBucket at 8:58 AM on November 8, 2006

Dudes. There are recounts in a bunch of states - CT 02, FL 13, GA 08, IA 02, NM 01, NC 08, PA 06, PA 08, WY, AL.

I could totally still win this.
posted by CunningLinguist at 9:22 AM on November 8, 2006

raf looks pretty close too...
posted by Lazlo Hollyfeld at 11:53 AM on November 9, 2006