Predictorama.. November 4, 2008 11:00 PM Subscribe
America.
posted by Lemurrhea at 11:20 PM on November 4, 2008 [7 favorites]
posted by Lemurrhea at 11:20 PM on November 4, 2008 [7 favorites]
In retrospect, it's amazing how close some people were in that thread (after a quick browse at the top).
Ryvar, as a Florida voter, trust me, you're forgiven!
posted by empyrean at 12:23 AM on November 5, 2008
Ryvar, as a Florida voter, trust me, you're forgiven!
posted by empyrean at 12:23 AM on November 5, 2008
Malia and Sasha. They get a puppy from the President.
posted by inconsequentialist at 12:39 AM on November 5, 2008 [12 favorites]
posted by inconsequentialist at 12:39 AM on November 5, 2008 [12 favorites]
That Won.
posted by pracowity at 1:21 AM on November 5, 2008 [15 favorites]
posted by pracowity at 1:21 AM on November 5, 2008 [15 favorites]
YES WE COUNT
posted by DU at 4:21 AM on November 5, 2008 [1 favorite]
posted by DU at 4:21 AM on November 5, 2008 [1 favorite]
The first part is easier to look at right now, since not all the votes are counted. Here's how it stands right now:
Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - Obama (called by AP, but not everyone)
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain (Not called yet, leaning by about 6k votes)
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - Obama (Not called yet, leaning by about 12k votes)
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama
So if the states that are leaning don't end up switching before they're called, anyone who calls "Obama across the board" was only one state off. It also looks like Navelgazer was pretty close, as was dirtdirt (although he loses points for his World Series prediction) and Sys Rq and GhostInTheMachine and maybe one or two others that I skimmed over. Oh, and me.
But rbellon got it right on the nose.
posted by Plutor at 4:57 AM on November 5, 2008
Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - Obama (called by AP, but not everyone)
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain (Not called yet, leaning by about 6k votes)
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - Obama (Not called yet, leaning by about 12k votes)
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama
So if the states that are leaning don't end up switching before they're called, anyone who calls "Obama across the board" was only one state off. It also looks like Navelgazer was pretty close, as was dirtdirt (although he loses points for his World Series prediction) and Sys Rq and GhostInTheMachine and maybe one or two others that I skimmed over. Oh, and me.
But rbellon got it right on the nose.
posted by Plutor at 4:57 AM on November 5, 2008
Yeah, it looks like I'm most likely going to be in the off by one club.
posted by burnmp3s at 6:18 AM on November 5, 2008
posted by burnmp3s at 6:18 AM on November 5, 2008
I'm guessing it's too late to enter.
posted by cortex (staff) at 6:32 AM on November 5, 2008 [1 favorite]
posted by cortex (staff) at 6:32 AM on November 5, 2008 [1 favorite]
I'm guessing it's too late to enter.
Dude, you're an admin, you could sneak that entry in right in the middle of everyone else's.
posted by inigo2 at 6:48 AM on November 5, 2008 [2 favorites]
Dude, you're an admin, you could sneak that entry in right in the middle of everyone else's.
posted by inigo2 at 6:48 AM on November 5, 2008 [2 favorites]
Almost everyone wildly overestimated Obama's popular vote lead.
posted by Deathalicious at 6:58 AM on November 5, 2008
posted by Deathalicious at 6:58 AM on November 5, 2008
Five Thirty Eight won.
posted by empath at 7:16 AM on November 5, 2008 [8 favorites]
posted by empath at 7:16 AM on November 5, 2008 [8 favorites]
Well that's the test run out of the way, but let's see how he does in the real elections.
posted by panboi at 7:19 AM on November 5, 2008
posted by panboi at 7:19 AM on November 5, 2008
Yep, off by one. Thanks a hell of a lot Missouri, place of my birth, home of rural fear voters, thanks a lot for ruining the sweep. Oh, well.
posted by schyler523 at 7:25 AM on November 5, 2008
posted by schyler523 at 7:25 AM on November 5, 2008
I'm only reading half of plutor's analysis and assuming that I won.
So there we go. I'm officially calling it for me.
I won.
posted by Navelgazer at 7:30 AM on November 5, 2008 [1 favorite]
So there we go. I'm officially calling it for me.
I won.
posted by Navelgazer at 7:30 AM on November 5, 2008 [1 favorite]
Stupid Red Sox.
posted by dirtdirt at 8:02 AM on November 5, 2008 [1 favorite]
posted by dirtdirt at 8:02 AM on November 5, 2008 [1 favorite]
I hope he's brought a puppy for everyone.
Everyone has won and all must haveprizes puppies.
posted by orange swan at 9:04 AM on November 5, 2008
Everyone has won and all must have
posted by orange swan at 9:04 AM on November 5, 2008
OBAMA WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
pretty sure I predicted Obama across the board
posted by Damn That Television at 9:10 AM on November 5, 2008
pretty sure I predicted Obama across the board
posted by Damn That Television at 9:10 AM on November 5, 2008
I modified some old NCAA bracket pool software I wrote to calculate the winner of the pool for each possible electoral outcome a few weeks ago, but never got around to modifying the interface to present the aggregate data in a useable way, which is why you aren't hearing about it until now. (As it stands, I can just get results for one possible state outcome at a time)
If the state results hold up, three users got exactly the correct state result: rbellon, Iridic, Dr. Zira. If the final popular vote margin is anywhere less than Obama 4.7, rbellon wins; from 4.7 to 8.6, Iridic, 8.7 and above Dr. Zira.
posted by Kwine at 9:11 AM on November 5, 2008
If the state results hold up, three users got exactly the correct state result: rbellon, Iridic, Dr. Zira. If the final popular vote margin is anywhere less than Obama 4.7, rbellon wins; from 4.7 to 8.6, Iridic, 8.7 and above Dr. Zira.
posted by Kwine at 9:11 AM on November 5, 2008
Five Thirty Eight won.
And HuffPo... I pretty much never looked at that site before election fever gripped me, then suddenly I found myself ending up there multiple times a day. Just me?
posted by taz at 9:17 AM on November 5, 2008
And HuffPo... I pretty much never looked at that site before election fever gripped me, then suddenly I found myself ending up there multiple times a day. Just me?
posted by taz at 9:17 AM on November 5, 2008
If Missouri flips to Obama, it's a ten way tie amongst
amyms
Meatbomb
genghis
Neiltupper
Damn That Television,
qvantamon
Slarty Bartfast
all of whose margins are far too high to win the tiebreak, and
schyler523 2.9 - 9
The Light Fantastic <2>
win if the final margin for Obama is in the range listed next to their username.
I think any other state outcome save these two is very unlikely at this point. And, I'm sorry that I dropped the ball on getting some good analysis up earlier. Also, anyone know how I could conceivably could do stuff like this for a living?
posted by Kwine at 9:20 AM on November 5, 2008 [1 favorite]
amyms
Meatbomb
genghis
Neiltupper
Damn That Television,
qvantamon
Slarty Bartfast
all of whose margins are far too high to win the tiebreak, and
schyler523 2.9 - 9
The Light Fantastic <2>
win if the final margin for Obama is in the range listed next to their username.
I think any other state outcome save these two is very unlikely at this point. And, I'm sorry that I dropped the ball on getting some good analysis up earlier. Also, anyone know how I could conceivably could do stuff like this for a living?
posted by Kwine at 9:20 AM on November 5, 2008 [1 favorite]
Sorry, forgot to escape the carat. The Light Fantastic wins if Obama's margin is less than 2.8
posted by Kwine at 9:22 AM on November 5, 2008
posted by Kwine at 9:22 AM on November 5, 2008
Some limited post hoc stuff, from the poking around that I did do:
1) Had Obama won all but NH and OH, there would have been a 14 way tie with eight correct states, which is the biggest tie I've seen (there were 118 entries; I threw out a few that were incomplete or submitted past the deadline).
2) It appears that the tipping point for winning the pool was around eight correct states: there were many winning entries with either eight, nine, or ten correct picks, but none less than that unless you dive into "McCain takes all but Florida!" sorts of crazy results.
3) On that note, our picks are super clustered (as someone pointed out in the original thread) around big Obama wins. You could have gotten a lot of value in the contest by picking, as for example davidmsc did, five or six McCain states; I haven't run the full numbers, but I think he's the outright winner in a hundred or two of the 1024 outcomes and gets a piece of a good number of others. Of course, those outcomes were individually very unlikely, but in aggregate they might be a better value than, say, user Damn That Television!, who got middled by many Obama picks and was stuck hoping for not only getting most or all of his state picks right, but also nailing the Obama margin within a half percent. It'd would be interesting to figure out whether Damn That Television! or davidmsc was in a better position to win the pool, but I'm not sure how to do so.
posted by Kwine at 9:53 AM on November 5, 2008 [1 favorite]
1) Had Obama won all but NH and OH, there would have been a 14 way tie with eight correct states, which is the biggest tie I've seen (there were 118 entries; I threw out a few that were incomplete or submitted past the deadline).
2) It appears that the tipping point for winning the pool was around eight correct states: there were many winning entries with either eight, nine, or ten correct picks, but none less than that unless you dive into "McCain takes all but Florida!" sorts of crazy results.
3) On that note, our picks are super clustered (as someone pointed out in the original thread) around big Obama wins. You could have gotten a lot of value in the contest by picking, as for example davidmsc did, five or six McCain states; I haven't run the full numbers, but I think he's the outright winner in a hundred or two of the 1024 outcomes and gets a piece of a good number of others. Of course, those outcomes were individually very unlikely, but in aggregate they might be a better value than, say, user Damn That Television!, who got middled by many Obama picks and was stuck hoping for not only getting most or all of his state picks right, but also nailing the Obama margin within a half percent. It'd would be interesting to figure out whether Damn That Television! or davidmsc was in a better position to win the pool, but I'm not sure how to do so.
posted by Kwine at 9:53 AM on November 5, 2008 [1 favorite]
Kwine: "On that note, our picks are super clustered (as someone pointed out in the original thread) around big Obama wins."
See, the problem was that you were asking for entries at a point where the campaign dynamics had pretty much settled down. Sure, no one could be certain, but I think after the first or second debate, everyone agreed that unless Barack accidentally wore his turban in public or Bin Laden shivved Palin or something of that nature, things weren't going to swing back in his direction. Combine that with the limited number of options anyhow (210 instead of 264) and you're going to get clusters.
For 2010 or 2012, my suggestions:
1) Launch the contest about the time of the conventions (for 2010, at least sometime in the spring or summer) when there's a lot more uncertainty about how the campaigns will progress.
2) More options. At this point, I'm surprised Georgia and New Mexico and Arizona aren't on the list. In 2010, it'll be easy to increase the choice space: include all 34 Class III Senate and 36 Governor races.
3) Equalize the chances of each answer being valid, the same way that "point spreads" do. In 2012, the focus will be on a presidential re-election, so something like "Will Obama get a bigger or smaller percentage of each state than in 2008?" will make the question non-trivial to answer even somewhere deep red like Alaska.
posted by Plutor at 11:37 AM on November 5, 2008
See, the problem was that you were asking for entries at a point where the campaign dynamics had pretty much settled down. Sure, no one could be certain, but I think after the first or second debate, everyone agreed that unless Barack accidentally wore his turban in public or Bin Laden shivved Palin or something of that nature, things weren't going to swing back in his direction. Combine that with the limited number of options anyhow (210 instead of 264) and you're going to get clusters.
For 2010 or 2012, my suggestions:
1) Launch the contest about the time of the conventions (for 2010, at least sometime in the spring or summer) when there's a lot more uncertainty about how the campaigns will progress.
2) More options. At this point, I'm surprised Georgia and New Mexico and Arizona aren't on the list. In 2010, it'll be easy to increase the choice space: include all 34 Class III Senate and 36 Governor races.
3) Equalize the chances of each answer being valid, the same way that "point spreads" do. In 2012, the focus will be on a presidential re-election, so something like "Will Obama get a bigger or smaller percentage of each state than in 2008?" will make the question non-trivial to answer even somewhere deep red like Alaska.
posted by Plutor at 11:37 AM on November 5, 2008
I'm pretty sure it's obvious that the "he" I refer to in "his direction" at the end of my second sentence is a person that I didn't refer to by name at all: McCain.
posted by Plutor at 11:39 AM on November 5, 2008
posted by Plutor at 11:39 AM on November 5, 2008
Were you afraid that we might read the "he" as Bin Laden? Because I suspect things might have swung in his direction if he had shivved Palin.
posted by SpiffyRob at 12:20 PM on November 5, 2008
posted by SpiffyRob at 12:20 PM on November 5, 2008
And HuffPo... I pretty much never looked at that site before election fever gripped me, then suddenly I found myself ending up there multiple times a day. Just me?
Pretty useful for the speeches.
posted by ersatz at 1:01 PM on November 5, 2008
Pretty useful for the speeches.
posted by ersatz at 1:01 PM on November 5, 2008
Hey, I'll post the results tonight... I should have known that MetaFilter would be unwilling to accept a 24 hour delay.
posted by gsteff at 1:42 PM on November 5, 2008
posted by gsteff at 1:42 PM on November 5, 2008
I think we ought to wait until all the results are certified, yeah? Missouri's not a done deal yet.
posted by EarBucket at 3:58 PM on November 5, 2008
posted by EarBucket at 3:58 PM on November 5, 2008
Well, assuming Missouri stays red, it looks like Irdic got every state right and was the closest in the popular vote. By FiveThirtyEight's current popular vote numbers, he was off by 1.0%
posted by [expletive deleted] at 8:21 PM on November 5, 2008
posted by [expletive deleted] at 8:21 PM on November 5, 2008
Well, if MO does switch and I win, I would like my winnings to be donated to Planned Parenthood. (Preferably in Sarah Palin's name.)
Please MO, look at Indiana, even they don't suck anymore. (*Crosses Fingers*)
posted by schyler523 at 9:04 PM on November 5, 2008
Please MO, look at Indiana, even they don't suck anymore. (*Crosses Fingers*)
posted by schyler523 at 9:04 PM on November 5, 2008
I mean no disrespect to Indiana, I'm trying to shame my state into 'doing the right thing.'
posted by schyler523 at 9:23 PM on November 5, 2008
posted by schyler523 at 9:23 PM on November 5, 2008
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posted by mathowie (staff) at 11:01 PM on November 4, 2008