The Watchers June 1, 2005 4:37 PM Subscribe
What's the deal with users 13965 through 14006 inclusive? None of them have ever posted to the blue. Isn't it strange that MeFi has 42 consecutive silent accounts?
Kwantsar old sock, *most* Mefi members never post.
posted by timeistight at 4:41 PM on June 1, 2005
posted by timeistight at 4:41 PM on June 1, 2005
Yes... but what are the odds that the gap in user numbers would be exactly 42? Paging Douglas Adams...
posted by kindall at 4:44 PM on June 1, 2005
posted by kindall at 4:44 PM on June 1, 2005
I think it's stranger that you took the time to find this group of accounts.
posted by bshort at 4:48 PM on June 1, 2005
posted by bshort at 4:48 PM on June 1, 2005
well, they're all people who snuck in when the doors were closed--membership opened in June 2002 on a limited basis (us 14kers got in then). There was a backdoor way in here until then, i think. Maybe it was just cool?
posted by amberglow at 4:54 PM on June 1, 2005
posted by amberglow at 4:54 PM on June 1, 2005
It's surprisingly likely that there would be a sequential group of non-posters like this. In any large set of random data there will be things that look like trends but are simply coincidences. Ask someone to flip a coin twenty-thousand times, and you will end up with several such streaks of heads. In fact, you can calculate how likely it would be to have a 40+ string of heads.
20000
---
\
/ (0.5^n) * (20000-n+1) = 0.00000363070284947753%
---
n=40
Okay, that's one in 27 million. That's not too likely, I guess.
posted by Plutor at 5:17 PM on June 1, 2005
20000
---
\
/ (0.5^n) * (20000-n+1) = 0.00000363070284947753%
---
n=40
Okay, that's one in 27 million. That's not too likely, I guess.
posted by Plutor at 5:17 PM on June 1, 2005
Pretty cool Plutor... but I'm not sure it applies the exactly as you put it in this case. Why these people have never posted doesn't really matter to me (and it probably is just an odd coincidence). But usually people buy a membership in order to participate (beyond just reading). Therefore, I would assume that well over 50% of the registered accounts have posted, at the very least, one comment, somewhere. The 20,000 or so Mefi accounts don't really represent a heads/tails situation, as I see it.
posted by Witty at 5:43 PM on June 1, 2005
posted by Witty at 5:43 PM on June 1, 2005
Tons of accounts signed up and didnt post anything at all. In fact, it looks like the majority to me. Type in some random numbers and see for yourself.
posted by vacapinta at 5:52 PM on June 1, 2005
posted by vacapinta at 5:52 PM on June 1, 2005
Yeah, Plutor your essential point is a good one; but you ruin it by assuming that you can meaningfully model this particular problem as a coin toss or that your particular version is meaningful. That's a really bad thing because it's sort of an insiduous mistake that we all make quite often--thinking we've rigorized and quantified something when we haven't. Anyway, I suppose the statisticians out there could tell us how meaningful is the ratio1 of non-posting to posting members, and in using that as a basis for such a calculation.
1. As I think about it, even at that level we're still deluding ourselves. The creation of a "regular" membership is not an event that can be assumed to be evenly distributed.
posted by Ethereal Bligh at 5:59 PM on June 1, 2005
1. As I think about it, even at that level we're still deluding ourselves. The creation of a "regular" membership is not an event that can be assumed to be evenly distributed.
posted by Ethereal Bligh at 5:59 PM on June 1, 2005
I would assume that this is pretty common. I didn't start posting until a little bit after I joined, which was the point at which I got over the fact that coming up with worthwhile comments was more difficult than it looked.
Witty, I see your point, but you'd be surprised at how easily people forget about things, even things they paid for, if it doesn't exactly match up with the image they had in their head before obtaining it.
posted by invitapriore at 6:21 PM on June 1, 2005
Witty, I see your point, but you'd be surprised at how easily people forget about things, even things they paid for, if it doesn't exactly match up with the image they had in their head before obtaining it.
posted by invitapriore at 6:21 PM on June 1, 2005
Damn good thing I came along when I did, huh?
All the ones you list were real entrants to the 5k contest, who apparently didn't realize that, at the time, registering for the contest also signed you up for MetaFilter. I realized that - it was the infamous "back door" that was subsequently closen.
posted by yhbc at 6:33 PM on June 1, 2005
All the ones you list were real entrants to the 5k contest, who apparently didn't realize that, at the time, registering for the contest also signed you up for MetaFilter. I realized that - it was the infamous "back door" that was subsequently closen.
posted by yhbc at 6:33 PM on June 1, 2005
someone once used a script to register multiple accounts.
posted by quonsar at 6:41 PM on June 1, 2005
posted by quonsar at 6:41 PM on June 1, 2005
well, they're all people who snuck in when the doors were closed--membership opened in June 2002 on a limited basis (us 14kers got in then). There was a backdoor way in here until then, i think. Maybe it was just cool?
*this* 14ker snuck in via the backdoor on July 15, 2002, at least. Basically there was still a New Account or Register link at the top, linked to metafilter.com/newuser1.cf
Matt had changed newuser1.cf to read "Sorry, we're not currently accepting new members at this time."
If you changed newuser1.cf to newuser2.cf in the address bar, though, it still brought up the page where you entered your details and then pressed a button to create the actual account. Not too tough to figure out, really.
posted by Ryvar at 6:41 PM on June 1, 2005
*this* 14ker snuck in via the backdoor on July 15, 2002, at least. Basically there was still a New Account or Register link at the top, linked to metafilter.com/newuser1.cf
Matt had changed newuser1.cf to read "Sorry, we're not currently accepting new members at this time."
If you changed newuser1.cf to newuser2.cf in the address bar, though, it still brought up the page where you entered your details and then pressed a button to create the actual account. Not too tough to figure out, really.
posted by Ryvar at 6:41 PM on June 1, 2005
Ethereal Bligh: "Yeah, Plutor your essential point is a good one; but you ruin it by assuming that you can meaningfully model this particular problem as a coin toss or that your particular version is meaningful."
Oh, I knew full well that at best I was over-simplifying the facts, and at worst I was flying blind and possibly contributing to the inevitable downfall of civilization cause by, of course, mathematics. I just thought that I'd demonstrate that simple random (or at least arbitrary) systems can introduce long enough patterns to make humans look twice. Unfortunately, the math screwed it all up.
posted by Plutor at 6:44 PM on June 1, 2005
Oh, I knew full well that at best I was over-simplifying the facts, and at worst I was flying blind and possibly contributing to the inevitable downfall of civilization cause by, of course, mathematics. I just thought that I'd demonstrate that simple random (or at least arbitrary) systems can introduce long enough patterns to make humans look twice. Unfortunately, the math screwed it all up.
posted by Plutor at 6:44 PM on June 1, 2005
Dang, Ryvar - you used a different backdoor than I did, then.
Yes, I know how suspect that sounds.
posted by yhbc at 6:49 PM on June 1, 2005 [1 favorite]
Yes, I know how suspect that sounds.
posted by yhbc at 6:49 PM on June 1, 2005 [1 favorite]
If you changed newuser1.cf to newuser2.cf in the address bar, though, it still brought up the page where you entered your details and then pressed a button to create the actual account. Not too tough to figure out, really.
Harvard and Stanford denied admission to their "hackers," but MeFi welcomes your ingenuity.
posted by caddis at 7:00 PM on June 1, 2005
Harvard and Stanford denied admission to their "hackers," but MeFi welcomes your ingenuity.
posted by caddis at 7:00 PM on June 1, 2005
you used a different backdoor than I did, then.
*clenches*
posted by quonsar at 7:00 PM on June 1, 2005
*clenches*
posted by quonsar at 7:00 PM on June 1, 2005
I wonder if Ryvar used *my* backdoor, coz I certainly didn't know nuttin about some "contest" to get in.
Perhaps this is why I've never felt as bonded to my fellow 14k'ers as they feel to each other. We didn't use the same back door, and you know how bonding that can be. ~sniffles~
posted by WolfDaddy at 7:03 PM on June 1, 2005
Perhaps this is why I've never felt as bonded to my fellow 14k'ers as they feel to each other. We didn't use the same back door, and you know how bonding that can be. ~sniffles~
posted by WolfDaddy at 7:03 PM on June 1, 2005
someone once used a script to register multiple accounts.
i think it was Reklaw, IIRC
posted by dhruva at 7:21 PM on June 1, 2005
i think it was Reklaw, IIRC
posted by dhruva at 7:21 PM on June 1, 2005
"I just thought that I'd demonstrate that simple random (or at least arbitrary) systems can introduce long enough patterns to make humans look twice. Unfortunately, the math screwed it all up."
I guess there's a double lesson in there then, huh? Seriously, I don't mean this in a snarky or otherwise offensive way. Just pointing it out because I, at least, think it's cautionary and personally relevant and I wish I could say I never make this sort of mistake, but I can't because I do.
posted by Ethereal Bligh at 7:31 PM on June 1, 2005
I guess there's a double lesson in there then, huh? Seriously, I don't mean this in a snarky or otherwise offensive way. Just pointing it out because I, at least, think it's cautionary and personally relevant and I wish I could say I never make this sort of mistake, but I can't because I do.
posted by Ethereal Bligh at 7:31 PM on June 1, 2005
I wonder if Ryvar used *my* backdoor,
I think I'd certainly remember if I had.
coz I certainly didn't know nuttin about some "contest" to get in.
Oh. Shit. Yeah, well, me and a few of the guys were drunk that night and somehow I guessed 6 after stynxno guessed 7. I'm pretty sure you know the rest.
We didn't use the same back door, and you know how bonding that can be.
Dude what the fuck?! TMI.
posted by Ryvar at 7:48 PM on June 1, 2005
I think I'd certainly remember if I had.
coz I certainly didn't know nuttin about some "contest" to get in.
Oh. Shit. Yeah, well, me and a few of the guys were drunk that night and somehow I guessed 6 after stynxno guessed 7. I'm pretty sure you know the rest.
We didn't use the same back door, and you know how bonding that can be.
Dude what the fuck?! TMI.
posted by Ryvar at 7:48 PM on June 1, 2005
Unrelated, but let's just point out once again that the 14K group is unquestionably the greatest 1000 member group in the history of Metafilter.
posted by jonson at 8:32 PM on June 1, 2005
posted by jonson at 8:32 PM on June 1, 2005
invitapriore : "which was the point at which I got over the fact that coming up with worthwhile comments was more difficult than it looked."
worthwhile what now?
posted by graventy at 9:13 PM on June 1, 2005
worthwhile what now?
posted by graventy at 9:13 PM on June 1, 2005
So wait, is there any vast number of account #s that don't have actual users attached? I mean, a swath of over 100 #s in a row?
posted by NickDouglas at 9:24 PM on June 1, 2005
posted by NickDouglas at 9:24 PM on June 1, 2005
There's nothing to see here. Please move along.
If anybody's interested in belonging to the greatest 1000 Mefi member group you know where to reach me. Prices will only go up.
posted by nixerman at 11:43 PM on June 1, 2005
If anybody's interested in belonging to the greatest 1000 Mefi member group you know where to reach me. Prices will only go up.
posted by nixerman at 11:43 PM on June 1, 2005
Somebody's selling these accounts on e-bay for $4.
posted by FieldingGoodney at 12:40 AM on June 2, 2005
posted by FieldingGoodney at 12:40 AM on June 2, 2005
Unrelated, but let's just point out once again that the 14K group is unquestionably the greatest 1000 member group in the history of Metafilter.
In the history of Civilisation , surely ?
posted by sgt.serenity at 2:39 AM on June 2, 2005
In the history of Civilisation , surely ?
posted by sgt.serenity at 2:39 AM on June 2, 2005
it was the infamous "back door" that was subsequently closen.
That was one
If you changed newuser1.cf to newuser2.cf in the address bar, though, it still brought up the page where you entered your details and then pressed a button to create the actual account. Not too tough to figure out, really.
That was another, but there was at least one more, which was the one I used.
Unrelated, but let's just point out once again that the 14K group is unquestionably the greatest 1000 member group in the history of Metafilter.
In the history of Civilisation , surely ?
And then some.
posted by dg at 3:39 AM on June 2, 2005
That was one
If you changed newuser1.cf to newuser2.cf in the address bar, though, it still brought up the page where you entered your details and then pressed a button to create the actual account. Not too tough to figure out, really.
That was another, but there was at least one more, which was the one I used.
Unrelated, but let's just point out once again that the 14K group is unquestionably the greatest 1000 member group in the history of Metafilter.
In the history of Civilisation , surely ?
And then some.
posted by dg at 3:39 AM on June 2, 2005
Can we get a badge ?
Like death from above or something with a nice black lightning bolt through it ?
posted by sgt.serenity at 3:47 AM on June 2, 2005
Like death from above or something with a nice black lightning bolt through it ?
posted by sgt.serenity at 3:47 AM on June 2, 2005
Unrelated, but let's just point out once again that the 14K group is unquestionably the greatest 1000 member group in the history of Metafilter.
Hey, I didnt know this. Why did no-one invite me to the meetings?
posted by qwerty155 at 5:01 AM on June 2, 2005
Hey, I didnt know this. Why did no-one invite me to the meetings?
posted by qwerty155 at 5:01 AM on June 2, 2005
In 25 years, mathowie will write a book about the 14kers. He will call it "The greatest ???eration."
posted by VulcanMike at 5:42 AM on June 2, 2005
posted by VulcanMike at 5:42 AM on June 2, 2005
Thats an awesome coat of arms , enough to strike fear into the hearts of trolls !
posted by sgt.serenity at 5:59 AM on June 2, 2005
posted by sgt.serenity at 5:59 AM on June 2, 2005
Sorry, it's my stable of as-yet unactivated sock puppets.
posted by orthogonality at 6:05 AM on June 2, 2005
posted by orthogonality at 6:05 AM on June 2, 2005
Unrelated, but let's just point out once again that the 14K group is unquestionably the greatest 1000 member group in the history of Metafilter.
In the history of Civilisation , surely ?
In the entire history of the universe. And taz's coat of arms captures the awesomeness fully. Under such an aegis, can we fail to triumph? Forward... for taz and King Matt!
posted by languagehat at 6:24 AM on June 2, 2005
In the history of Civilisation , surely ?
In the entire history of the universe. And taz's coat of arms captures the awesomeness fully. Under such an aegis, can we fail to triumph? Forward... for taz and King Matt!
posted by languagehat at 6:24 AM on June 2, 2005
Whoa. When I found this thread....
Truely, 42 is the answer.
posted by terrapin at 6:55 AM on June 2, 2005
Truely, 42 is the answer.
posted by terrapin at 6:55 AM on June 2, 2005
man. sometimes i think that i'm the only 11000'er to read metafilter anymore.
so....alone....
posted by taumeson at 12:59 PM on June 2, 2005
so....alone....
posted by taumeson at 12:59 PM on June 2, 2005
It was a very poor crop that year.
posted by sgt.serenity at 1:27 PM on June 2, 2005
posted by sgt.serenity at 1:27 PM on June 2, 2005
Umh. But seriously, how did you stumble across this, Kwantsar?
posted by mzurer at 1:39 PM on June 2, 2005
posted by mzurer at 1:39 PM on June 2, 2005
Those are all Metafilter Premium accounts, you can't find their info because you're obviously not a member.
posted by drezdn at 3:44 PM on June 2, 2005
posted by drezdn at 3:44 PM on June 2, 2005
You are not logged in, either login or create an account to post comments
posted by mlis at 4:40 PM on June 1, 2005