The 2008 MetaFilter election prediction contest

October 2, 2008 6:45 PM

If there's one thing MeFites love more than Sarah Palin discussions, it's smug senses of superiority. Get yours in the 2008 MetaFilter election prediction contest.

To enter, predict

1) Which candidate will win each of the following ten states (which are currently the ten closest contests according to pollster.com).

Colorado
Florida
Indiana
Minnesota
Missouri
Nevada
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

2) The winner of the popular vote and margin of victory as a percentage of the total vote, to the nearest tenth of a percent. For example, if you expect McCain to get 24.8%, Obama to get 24.9%, and Ron Paul to get 50.3%, you would say wake up, sheeple Ron Paul by 25.4%.

The winner will be whoever gets the most states correct, with ties broken by whoever came closest to guessing the actual popular vote gap between the McCain and Obama (measured as the absolute value of the difference between your McCain - Obama value and the actual McCain - Obama value), and further ties broken by whoever posted first.

The prize will be a $50 donation to the charity of the winner's choice. Entries are due by midnight EST Sunday evening (October 5th).

posted by gsteff to MetaFilter-Related at 6:45 PM (223 comments total)

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - Obama
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Poplar - 6.3% Obama
posted by Lemurrhea at 6:58 PM on October 2, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - Obama
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Poplar - 6.4% Obama
posted by stavrogin at 7:03 PM on October 2, 2008

Oh, right.... predictions should be posted to this thread, naturally.
posted by gsteff at 7:03 PM on October 2, 2008

1)

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - Obama
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri -Obama
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina -Obama
Ohio - Obama
Virginia -Obama

2)

Obama by 24.6% (Obama - 60.8%, McCain - 36.2%, Barr and Nader - 3% combined)


If there's one thing MeFites love more than Sarah Palin discussions, it's smug senses of superiority.

I prefer to have a non-smug sense of superiority.
posted by amyms at 7:05 PM on October 2, 2008

I have a smug sense of inferiority, myself.
posted by jonmc at 7:08 PM on October 2, 2008 [15 favorites]

I was bigtime wrong in '06 - let's keep the streak alive:

CO - Obama
FL - McCain
IN - McCain
MN - Obama
MO - McCain
NV - McCain
NH - Obama
NC - McCain
OH - McCain
VA - McCain

McCain by 3% nationally.
posted by hangashore at 7:10 PM on October 2, 2008

RON PAUL: WRITE-IN LANDSLIDE!
posted by blue_beetle at 7:30 PM on October 2, 2008 [6 favorites]

The US needs to be abolished as a political entity NOW.

Ow sweet lord allmighty, that was on painful "debate".

Oh? Prediction? The insanely religious mad patriot beats the insanely religious mad patriot by an insanely small but madly patriotic margin.
posted by Dumsnill at 7:40 PM on October 2, 2008 [3 favorites]

CO: Obama
FL: McCain
IN: Obama
MN: Obama
MO: Obama
NV: Obama
NH: Obama
NC: McCain
OH: Obama
VA: Obama

Obama by 8%
posted by Doublewhiskeycokenoice at 7:41 PM on October 2, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - ObMcCainama
Indiana - Obama
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - Obama
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Obama by 7.5%
posted by EndsOfInvention at 7:45 PM on October 2, 2008

Florida - ObMcCainama

Yeah, rather than have a mutant combination of both candidates winning Florida, I meant "McCain".
posted by EndsOfInvention at 7:45 PM on October 2, 2008 [3 favorites]

Americans will be shooting each other in the streets and sucking the marrow from their neighbors' bones before the first Tuesday in November.
posted by mediareport at 7:46 PM on October 2, 2008 [7 favorites]

I have a smug sense of snow.
posted by It's Raining Florence Henderson at 7:51 PM on October 2, 2008 [13 favorites]

Colorado - O
Florida - O
Indiana - M
Minnesota - O
Missouri - M
Nevada - M
New Hampshire - O
North Carolina - M
Ohio - O
Virginia - O

Obama by 3.3%
posted by Mister_A at 7:53 PM on October 2, 2008

Just send me the check bitches.
posted by Mister_A at 7:53 PM on October 2, 2008

FYI I love the "truth squad" that follows up the debates on NBC, I just wish they covered more stuff.
posted by Mister_A at 7:54 PM on October 2, 2008

Ron Paul's charitable causes have no use for your fiat money.

(By November, neither will your charitable causes due to rampant violence and cannibalism.)
posted by TheOnlyCoolTim at 7:55 PM on October 2, 2008 [4 favorites]

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - Obama
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - McCain
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - McCain

Poplar - 3.2% Obama
posted by ThePinkSuperhero at 7:55 PM on October 2, 2008 [1 favorite]

Trees can't vote!
posted by Weighted Companion Cube at 7:56 PM on October 2, 2008 [10 favorites]

I would enter, but I'm debate-drunk right now. Also, I am super bad at predicting things. My first career as an astrologist totally crashed and burned.
posted by the littlest brussels sprout at 7:57 PM on October 2, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - Obama
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - Obama
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - Obama
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Obama by 12%

A mutant winning Florida would be... appropriate.
posted by qvantamon at 7:58 PM on October 2, 2008 [2 favorites]

ALL WILL KNEEL BEFORE GENERAL ZOD

...doom doom doom-doom doom doom-doom-doom doom DOOOOOM doom...
posted by loquacious at 8:01 PM on October 2, 2008 [3 favorites]

I think the election will ignite the atmosphere leading to the end of human civilization.
posted by fantabulous timewaster at 8:06 PM on October 2, 2008

Trees can't vote!
posted by Weighted Companion Cube at 7:56 PM on October 2 [+] [!]

Who are you gonna believe? A cube? Or the country of Ecuador?
posted by Lemurrhea at 8:06 PM on October 2, 2008

Colorado- Obama
Florida- McCain
Indiana- McCain
Minnesota- Obama
Missouri- McCain
Nevada- Obama
New Hampshire- Obama
North Carolina- McCain
Ohio- McCain
Virginia- McCain

Obama by 1.9% nationally
posted by spaltavian at 8:14 PM on October 2, 2008

Colorado- Yo mama
Florida- Yo mama
Indiana- Yo mama
Minnesota- Yo mama
Missouri- Yo mama
Nevada- Yo mama
New Hampshire- Yo mama
North Carolina- Yo mama
Ohio- Yo mama
Virginia- Yo mama
posted by popechunk at 8:23 PM on October 2, 2008 [5 favorites]

Colorado - O
Florida - O
Indiana - M
Minnesota - O
Missouri - M
Nevada - M
New Hampshire - O
North Carolina - M
Ohio - O
Virginia - O

Now, I really don't understand the bizarre political insanely drawn out and horrifically expensive and dull durge system that you lot have, but are you trying to say that your country is going to be won by Omnomnomnom?

That'd make more sense than the bizarre crap I see on the internet about it so far, that's for sure...
posted by Brockles at 8:27 PM on October 2, 2008 [1 favorite]

1)

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - Obama
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri -Obama
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina -Obama
Ohio - Obama
Virginia -Obama

2)

Obama by 24.5% (Obama - 60.7%, McCain - 36.2%, Barr and Nader - 3.1% combined)

It's "Price is Right" rules, yeah?
posted by Meatbomb at 8:46 PM on October 2, 2008 [2 favorites]

You're evil, Meatbomb!
posted by amyms at 8:48 PM on October 2, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - McCain
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - Obama
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Popular - 8% Obama
posted by ignignokt at 8:51 PM on October 2, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - McCain
Indiana - Obama
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Poplar - 2.6% Obama

Americans will be shooting each other in the streets and sucking the marrow from their neighbors' bones before the first Tuesday in November.

Honestly, given the choice between a violent, brutal end and continuing to watch this slow rotting downward spiral of passionate ignorance and denial . . . just hand me the Tec-9 and butcher's blade. I'm sick of waking up every morning and glancing at the headlines just to find out what's going on, only to have my faith in the basic goodness of my fellow man violated and my intelligence abused.

Bring on the apocalypse, bitches - it may be ugly but it's honest and containing *some* small measure of moral clarity.
posted by Ryvar at 8:51 PM on October 2, 2008 [5 favorites]

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - McCain
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Obama by 4.8% nationally.
posted by Quidam at 8:53 PM on October 2, 2008

t are you trying to say that your country is going to be won by Omnomnomnom?

Dammit, I tried to buy that domain a while ago for a food website. At the time it was a blank placeholder. This is what they did with it? Yeesh!-
posted by Miko at 8:54 PM on October 2, 2008

The US Presidential Election effects everyone in the world to some extent and so I bring you a new carion cry: no effectation without representation!
posted by Samuel Farrow at 8:57 PM on October 2, 2008

The US Presidential Election effects everyone in the world to some extent and so I bring you a new carion cry: no effectation without representation!

I think you mean either "clarion cry" or "carrion cry."
posted by gsteff at 8:58 PM on October 2, 2008 [1 favorite]

Colorado: McCain
Florida: McCain
Indiana: McCain
Minnesota: McCain
Missouri: Obama
Nevada: Obama
New Hampshire: Obama
North Carolina: Obama
Ohio: Obama, by skin of teeth
Virginia: Obama, by a nose

popular vote margin 6.2% for obama.

also, big thanks to gsteff for putting this contest on again, which is really cool. and for the amazon gift card he sent in lieu of last year's prize, despite the fact that i, in infinite lameness, never sent him my address before. thanks dude!
posted by sergeant sandwich at 9:06 PM on October 2, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - Obama (narrowly)
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain (narrowly)
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain (narrowly)
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Nationally: Obama by 7.6
posted by Navelgazer at 9:06 PM on October 2, 2008

oh, jesus. i fucked that up. it should be:

Colorado: McCain
Florida: McCain
Indiana: McCain
Minnesota:Obama
Missouri: McCain
Nevada: Obama
New Hampshire: Obama
North Carolina: Obama
Ohio: Obama, by skin of teeth
Virginia: Obama, by a nose

you M state people confuse me.
posted by sergeant sandwich at 9:07 PM on October 2, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Popular vote: 7.6%
posted by internet!Hannah at 9:14 PM on October 2, 2008

I have a smug sense of snow.

Smilla, is that you?

Also, I trust it's okay that the charity of my choice is Navelgazer's Ramen Noodle Fund, because that's what it's going to be. I'm in school, after all.

(I could also support the United Negro College Fund, if push comes to shove.)
posted by Navelgazer at 9:15 PM on October 2, 2008

Poplar - 6.3% Obama

The trees are voting now? Well, I guess they prefer Obama's environmental package...
posted by crossoverman at 9:16 PM on October 2, 2008 [3 favorites]

Colorado: Obama
Florida: McCain
Indiana: McCain
Minnesota: Obama
Missouri: McCain
Nevada: McCain
New Hampshire: Obama
North Carolina: McCain
Ohio: McCain
Virginia: McCain

Popular vote: Obama by 3.9%
posted by equalpants at 9:18 PM on October 2, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - Obama
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - McCain

Popular - Obama by 14%
posted by crossoverman at 9:21 PM on October 2, 2008

Colorado-Obama
Florida-Obama
Indiana-Obama
Minnesota-Obama
Missouri-Obama
Nevada-Obama
New Hampshire-Obama
North Carolina-Obama
Ohio-Obama
Virginia-Obama

Popular:Obama by 9.1%

Entry void if A: Terrorist attack after October 22 B: Bin Laden pulled out of cave after October 22 or C: "voting irregularites" in a battleground state.
posted by Slarty Bartfast at 9:23 PM on October 2, 2008

Colorado - JM
Florida - JM
Indiana - BO
Minnesota - BO
Missouri - JM
Nevada - JM
New Hampshire - JM
North Carolina - JM
Ohio - BO
Virginia - BO

John McCain gets popular vote by 0.3%

And MSNBC offers Joe Biden his own show.
posted by not_on_display at 9:32 PM on October 2, 2008

Colorado - Corporations
Florida - Corporations
Indiana - Corporations
Minnesota - Corporations
Missouri - Corporations
Nevada - Corporations
New Hampshire - Corporations
North Carolina - Corporations
Ohio - Corporations
Virginia - Corporations

Popular - Corporations by a landslide.
posted by telstar at 9:46 PM on October 2, 2008 [10 favorites]

"If there's one thing MeFites love more than Sarah Palin discussions, it's smug senses of superiority."

Psh, yeah. Enjoy your little 'contest.'
posted by Eideteker at 9:46 PM on October 2, 2008 [1 favorite]

Americans will be shooting each other in the streets and sucking the marrow from their neighbors' bones before the first Tuesday in November.

I'll give you 3 to 2 over-under odds with an upside differential of 1.8%.
posted by Blazecock Pileon at 9:52 PM on October 2, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama, after recount
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - Obama
Ohio - McCain, with loads of voting irregularities
Virginia - McCain barely

Obama by 6.3%
posted by tula at 9:55 PM on October 2, 2008

Spruce - Obama by 5.6%
posted by ludwig_van at 10:03 PM on October 2, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - McCain
Indiana - Obama
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - McCain
North Carolina - Obama
Ohio - McCain
Virginia - McCain

Popular vote - Obama 3.75%
posted by mattbucher at 10:05 PM on October 2, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - Obama
Nevada - McCain
New Hampshire - McCain
North Carolina - Obama
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Obama by 0.7%
posted by thecaddy at 10:11 PM on October 2, 2008

Colorado - O
Florida - O
Indiana - M
Minnesota - O
Missouri - M
Nevada - O
New Hampshire - O
North Carolina - M
Ohio - O
Virginia - O

Popular vote: O by 3.25 %
posted by jaimev at 10:13 PM on October 2, 2008

If there's one thing MeFites love more than Sarah Palin discussions, it's [XYZ]

And this is not what Metatalk is for.
posted by Blazecock Pileon at 10:13 PM on October 2, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama (oh please oh please oh please)
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - McCain
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Obama by 5.5%
posted by penduluum at 10:20 PM on October 2, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - Obama
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - Obama
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - Obama
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

McCain by 3%
posted by The Light Fantastic at 10:37 PM on October 2, 2008 [2 favorites]

Colorado - Obama
Florida - McCain
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - Obama
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - Obama
Ohio - McCain
Virginia - Obama

Popular Vote: Obama by 4%
posted by Gyan at 10:54 PM on October 2, 2008

Write-in prediction: END TIMES!
posted by Artw at 11:50 PM on October 2, 2008 [1 favorite]

You forgot Poland.
posted by clearly at 12:01 AM on October 3, 2008

Cubs
Phillies
Redsox
Rays

Cubs
Redsox

Cubs in 2008!!!
posted by clearly at 12:02 AM on October 3, 2008 [3 favorites]

I mean come on, Obama and the Cubs winning in November, how frickin' sweet would that be?
posted by clearly at 12:04 AM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - McCain
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Popular - Obama 3.7%
posted by Karlos the Jackal at 12:12 AM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - McCain
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Popular vote - Obama by 4%
posted by Nattie at 12:15 AM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - McCain
Indiana - M
Minnesota - O
Missouri - M
Nevada -O
New Hampshire - O
North Carolina - O
Ohio - O
Virginia - O

Pop. vote - Obama, 6.6%
posted by item at 12:30 AM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - McCain
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - Obama
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Popular vote - Obama, 6.7%
posted by halcyon_daze at 12:39 AM on October 3, 2008

Item, did not see your picks until preview.

Same time, same picks, .1% apart.

*tips straw boater*
posted by halcyon_daze at 12:46 AM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - McCain
Indiana - Obama
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - McCain
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

McCain by 1.8% nationally.
posted by Harald74 at 1:06 AM on October 3, 2008

Colorado- Yo mama
Florida- Yo mama
Indiana- Yo mama
Minnesota- Yo mama
Missouri- Yo mama
Nevada- Yo mama
New Hampshire- Yo mama
North Carolina- Yo mama
Ohio- Yo mama
Virginia- Yo mama

popechunk didn't finish this, so I'll do it. (popechunk can pick the charity.) Winner: Yo Mama, 69% margin.
posted by spaceman_spiff at 1:11 AM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - McCain
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Popular - Obama by 3.1%
posted by speicus at 1:29 AM on October 3, 2008

I find it curious there aren't more McCain wins. Shouldn't y'all be trying to hedge a bit? That $50 becomes much more valuable if McCain wins, and basically shouldn't be needed if the Obama wins.

Or is it a faux pas to bet against the home team?
posted by FuManchu at 2:02 AM on October 3, 2008

Why can't there be a 50 state bet? I want someone to call every state, and they get something all sorts of big..
posted by mediocre at 2:51 AM on October 3, 2008

Alan Jones (SENSIBLE) - 9,112
Tarquin Fin-tim-lin-bin-whin-bim-lim-bus-stop-F'tang-F'tang-Olé-Biscuitbarrel (SILLY) - 12,441
Kevin Phillips-Bong (SLIGHTLY SILLY) - 0 (nought)
posted by matthewr at 3:00 AM on October 3, 2008 [10 favorites]

Colorado - Obama
Florida - McCain
Indiana - Obama
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - McCain
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obamacain
Virginia - Obama

Popular - Obama by 3.6%

Charity - The National Rifle Association.
posted by Marisa Stole the Precious Thing at 3:57 AM on October 3, 2008

Kidding! Planned Parenthood, please.
posted by Marisa Stole the Precious Thing at 3:57 AM on October 3, 2008

Brig. Gen. Horace Balsam (The Keep Royalty, White Rat Catching and Safe Sewage Resident's Party) - no votes

Ivor Jest-ye-not-madam Biggun (Standing-At-The-Back-Dressed-Stupidly-And-Looking-Stupid Party) - no votes

Pitt, the Even Younger (Whig) - no votes

Mr. Sodoff Baldrick (Adder Party) - 16,472
posted by FuManchu at 4:02 AM on October 3, 2008 [3 favorites]

I'm find it so reassuring that the majority of people in this thread have Obama winning the popular vote, often by a large margin. I hope that's how it turns out.

Colorado - Obama
Florida - McCain
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - McCain

P.V. - Obama 0.35%
posted by Devils Slide at 4:07 AM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - McCain
North Carolina - Obama
Ohio - McCain
Virginia - Obama

Obama by 2.8%
posted by afu at 4:16 AM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - Obama
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri -Obama
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina -Obama
Ohio - Obama
Virginia -Obama

McCain by 1.

Not percent, exactly 1. Probably a Supreme Court Justice.
posted by JaredSeth at 4:17 AM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - McCain
Indiana - Obama
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - McCain
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Obama by 2.5%
posted by aheckler at 5:22 AM on October 3, 2008

I'm find it so reassuring that the majority of people in this thread have Obama winning the popular vote, often by a large margin.

I think that's partly people's cynical view that if the election is at all close, then "voting irregularities" could flip things all around.
posted by inigo2 at 5:35 AM on October 3, 2008

since the election is decided by the electoral vote, why not use that as the tie-breaker?
posted by terrapin at 5:36 AM on October 3, 2008

Poplar?
posted by Grangousier at 5:42 AM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - O
Florida - O
Indiana - M
Minnesota - O (Pollster lists this as close?)
Missouri - M
Nevada - O
New Hampshire - O
North Carolina - M
Ohio - O
Virginia - O

O + 10%

And before I'm accused of being unrealistic or partisan, I'd like to give my reasoning. I basically just assigned the states from 538's predictions and the popular vote difference is just the approximate difference in the current polls.

However, at least 2 of the 3 states I assigned to McCain were within a few points. If Obama is still this far ahead (or more, judging by the momentum) on Election Day, a lot of Rs aren't going to bother going to the polls. That could lose McCain some states and at the very least will depress the popular margin.
posted by DU at 5:58 AM on October 3, 2008

All these 'Missouri - McCain' votes are bringing me down! Come on, people! Have some more faith in the Show-Me State! We're not all mindless hicks!

MOBAMA!
posted by chara at 5:59 AM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - M
Florida - O
Indiana - O
Minnesota - O
Missouri - M
Nevada - O
New Hampshire - O
North Carolina - O
Ohio - O
Virginia - O

Obama, 7 nationally.

(Red Sox sweep the Cubbies into another hundred years of drudgery)
posted by dirtdirt at 6:35 AM on October 3, 2008

Northern Canuckistan - Harper
posted by blue_beetle at 6:39 AM on October 3, 2008 [2 favorites]

Colorado- Obama
Florida- McCain
Indiana- McCain
Minnesota- Obama
Missouri- McCain
Nevada- Obama
New Hampshire- Obama
North Carolina- McCain
Ohio- Obama
Virginia- McCain

Obama by 2.7% nationally
posted by readery at 7:02 AM on October 3, 2008

I'm too scared to play this because whenever I do picks for things like NCAA basketball I'm always, always terribly, horribly, wrong. I don't want to jinx anything.
posted by rtha at 7:10 AM on October 3, 2008 [3 favorites]

Colorado - Obama
Florida - McCain (even if Obama really wins. I'm still bitter from 2000)
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - Obama
Ohio - Obama (the Sec of State is a Democrat this year)
Virginia - Obama

Obama wins by 4.5% margin.
posted by adamrice at 7:10 AM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - McCain
Indiana - Obama
Minnesota - McCain
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - McCain

Obama, by 1.9% nationally. (readery, we have similar predictions!)
posted by amicamentis at 7:19 AM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - Obama
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Obama by 7.1%
posted by Hello, Revelers! I am Captain Lavender! at 7:20 AM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - McCain
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - McCain
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Obama by 7.6%
posted by Solon and Thanks at 7:39 AM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - Obama
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Obama by 3.1%
Palin will accidentally cast her vote for McKinney.
posted by Plutor at 7:42 AM on October 3, 2008 [2 favorites]

Colorado: Obama
Florida: McCain
Indiana: McCain
Minnesota: Obama
Missouri: McCain
Nevada: Obama
New Hampshire: Obama
North Carolina: Obama
Ohio: McCain
Virginia: Obama

Margin: Obama by 1.5%

Awesome idea, gsteff!
posted by Kwine at 7:42 AM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - McCain
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Obama by 2.2%

(Red Sox Dodgers sweep the Cubbies into another hundred years of drudgery)
posted by carsonb at 7:43 AM on October 3, 2008

Poplar?
it's the new Pimlico. Given how the past votes have gone, I think Obama is a safe call.
posted by tallus at 7:44 AM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - Obama
Nevada - McCain
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - McCain

Obama by 3.9%
posted by cillit bang at 7:49 AM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - McCain
Indiana - Obama
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Poplar - 3.1% Obama
posted by Falconetti at 7:54 AM on October 3, 2008

Obama wins all of them, popular vote margin of 12.5%
posted by Damn That Television at 8:04 AM on October 3, 2008

McCain will win the popular vote by the slimmest of margins, like .05-.3%.

Barack Obama will win the Electoral College with 273-295 votes.
posted by jason's_planet at 8:05 AM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - McCain
Florida - McCain
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - McCain
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - McCain
Virginia - McCain

Popular - McCain by .25%

I'm going the cynical route on this one since other folks have the more likely results covered. Also, staring at the name 'McCain' for a while makes it look weird. Like something from the McDonald's value menu, which is where we'll all be eating if he wins.
posted by jedicus at 8:10 AM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - McCain
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - McCain
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - Obama
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - McCain

Obama by 2.7%

I know almost everyone who made picks other than straight Obama gives NC to McCain, but Obama is actually ahead in the polls in North Carolina. This is actually the first time in 30 years that there's been even a remote chance that we'll vote democratic. It's nice to be able to vote in a presidential election where my choice might have an impact, since that hasn't happened since I've been alive.
posted by solipsophistocracy at 8:11 AM on October 3, 2008

Obama win, 3% margin.

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - Obama
Nevada - McCain
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - McCain
Virginia - Obama
posted by phrontist at 8:12 AM on October 3, 2008

Screw it, I'll give North Carolina to Obama.
posted by phrontist at 8:13 AM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - McCain
Indiana - MCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - McCain
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Obama wins popular vote by 2.8%.
posted by lunit at 8:30 AM on October 3, 2008

Also, I've written software for March Madness that takes sets of NCAA tournament predictions as input and outputs the winner of the pool for each possible permutation of the actual tournament results (since the early round permutations are overwhelmingly large, I usually don't run it until Sweet 16 time). Since this is a simpler case, it shouldn't be too hard to modify it to take in sets of state predictions and tiebreakers and output a winner of our contest for each possible election result. I don't think I'll have time to modify the code this weekend since I'm going to an out of town wedding, but that's ok since the deadline doesn't expire until Sunday. I've already started aggregating all of your predictions and I'll post some data sometime next week.
posted by Kwine at 8:32 AM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - O
Florida - M
Indiana - M
Minnesota - O
Missouri - O
Nevada - M
New Hampshire - O
North Carolina - M
Ohio - O
Virginia - O

Bama by greater than 10%
posted by smackwich at 8:33 AM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - McCain
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Popular vote: Obama, 1.7%
posted by orrnyereg at 8:33 AM on October 3, 2008

CO-O
FL-O
IN-O
MN-O
MO-M
NV-O
NH-M
NC-O
OH-O
VA-O

Obama by double digits.
posted by Sys Rq at 8:34 AM on October 3, 2008

The US Presidential Election effects everyone in the world to some extent and so I bring you a new carion cry: no effectation without representation!

I think you mean affects and affectation. I can get behind 'No affectation without representation'.

You're on your own with the carry-on cry though. Everyone should check those.
posted by Kirth Gerson at 8:45 AM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - McCain
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - Obama
Ohio - McCain
Virginia - Obama

Obama by 2.0%.
posted by so_necessary at 8:50 AM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - McCain
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

2.3% Obama

GO WHITE SOX!!
posted by scody at 9:06 AM on October 3, 2008

What is this carrion cry? Does it have something to do with the vultures circling the McCain campaign headquarters?
posted by adamrice at 9:10 AM on October 3, 2008

Minnesota - O (Pollster lists this as close?)

Yes.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves: not every development follows the greater trend. I too believe Obama has a significantly better chance to win MN than McCain, but there is at least some basis in numbers to still consider it a close state.
posted by goodnewsfortheinsane at 9:26 AM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - McCain
Florida - McCain
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri – McCain
Nevada - McCain
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - McCain

Obama by 3.3%
posted by contessa at 9:35 AM on October 3, 2008

Deranged muppets from Betelgeuse take over the voting system. Result:

Colorado: Kodos
Virginia: Kodos
Minnesota: Kang
Texas: Brunson
Oregon: mathowie
Missouri: Kodos
Nevada: Presley
Vermont: Duceppe
Florida: Morales
Alberta: Harper
North Carolina: Kodos
Ohio: Kodos
Indiana: Peabody

Stephen Harper wins, with 23.5% of the popular vote.
posted by sfenders at 9:52 AM on October 3, 2008 [2 favorites]

[extremely tempted to say that the election just might find a reason to get cancelled, call it spidey sense call it paranoia, whatever, i said it here first)

Colorado - McCain
Florida - McCain
Indiana - Obama
Minnesota - McCain
Missouri - Obama
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Obama wins by an unexpected margin of around 30% as never before polled eligible citizens register to vote - the immigrants, the shopkeepers, the cabdrivers and restauranters, those who dream that one day their son or daughter too could be one day be POTUS
posted by infini at 9:57 AM on October 3, 2008

oh and no charity, put the money somewhere useful like kiva.org
posted by infini at 10:03 AM on October 3, 2008 [1 favorite]

ObMcCainama

I don't think it's actually obligatory to point out that McCain was born in Panama.
posted by decagon at 10:13 AM on October 3, 2008 [1 favorite]

Cubs, haha, rrrrrriiiiiiight. They're down 2-nil and last night every player in their infield had an error. I wouldn't trust em to beat a little league team 3 times in a row at this point.

Minnesota: Obama; Longest running democratic presidential streak in the nation isn't gonna be broken this year.

Ohio, Florida: McCain and voting irregularities.

The rest: I dunno.

Obama by 4%. Shouldn't we be measuring the electoral votes since thats what really matters?
posted by no_moniker at 10:13 AM on October 3, 2008

Colorado- Obama
Florida- McCain
Indiana- McCain
Minnesota- McCain
Missouri- McCain
Nevada- Obama
New Hampshire- Obama
North Carolina- Obama
Ohio- Obama
Virginia- Obama

Popular- Obama 2%
posted by greta simone at 10:16 AM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - Obama
Nevada - McCain
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - Obama
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama


Obama, 5.7%

Conservatives: 136
Liberals: 96
NDP: 30
Bloc: 43
Other: 3
posted by GhostintheMachine at 10:16 AM on October 3, 2008

Kang only takes Minnesota? Is he Kang Mondale or something?

Oh god I've Mondale'd yet another thread.
posted by Mister_A at 10:18 AM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - Could go either way. Huge fundie population.
Florida - McCain
Indiana - McCain (they voted for Dole)
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain (slave state)
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - McCain (home of previous shennanigans)
Virginia - McCain (Virginia vs. Loving)

Popular vote: Unknown.

I've written some software that goes through all of the permutations for the states in play, the electoral "worth," and what chance I have eyeballed to think they'll flip. What's really interesting is that we have some chance of a tie this time 'round.
posted by adipocere at 10:24 AM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Poplar - 5.31% Obama
posted by R. Mutt at 10:33 AM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - O
Florida - O
Indiana - M
Minnesota - O
Missouri - M
Nevada - M
New Hampshire - O
North Carolina - M
Ohio - M
Virginia - O

Popular -- Obama, by 4%
posted by amarynth at 10:35 AM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - O
Florida - M
Indiana - M
Minnesota - O
Missouri - M
Nevada - M
New Hampshire - O
North Carolina - M
Ohio - M
Virginia - O

Popular vote - Obama by 3.7%
posted by Justinian at 10:38 AM on October 3, 2008

Colorado-- Obama
Florida-- McCain
Indiana-- McCain
Minnesota-- Obama
Missouri-- McCain
Nevada-- McCain
New Hampshire-- Obama
North Carolina-- McCain
Ohio-- McCain
Virginia-- McCain

(Obama wins electoral vote 273 - 265)

Popular vote-- Obama by 1.1%
posted by dersins at 10:40 AM on October 3, 2008

Abortions for some, miniature American flags for others.
posted by ninjew at 10:54 AM on October 3, 2008 [3 favorites]

Colorado - McCain
Florida - McCain
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - McCain
Virginia - McCain

Deciduous vote - Obama 2.5%
posted by sadiehawkinstein at 10:57 AM on October 3, 2008

If there's one thing MeFites love more than Sarah Palin discussions, it's smug senses of superiority.

Your favourite 2008 Metafilter Election Prediction Contest sucks.
posted by PeterMcDermott at 11:15 AM on October 3, 2008

Kang only takes Minnesota? Is he Kang Mondale or something?

I am grateful to live in a world where questions like this are asked.
posted by middleclasstool at 11:23 AM on October 3, 2008 [1 favorite]

Colorado - Could go either way. Huge fundie population.

Not exactly. There's a big fundie population in specific pockets (Focus on the Family in Colorado Springs, etc.), but Denver/Boulder have always been predominantly liberal, and the entire front range is generally more liberal than it's been in quite some time, due to changing demographics. Also, Focus on the Family aside, Western-state conservatism has not historically been grounded in fundamentalism/evangelicalism the way Southern-state conservatism generally has. It has a much more libertarian streak to it.

The New Yorker had a piece last month about the political shifts going on in Colorado and throughout the mountain West; I think it gets a lot of the key points right, and explains why Colorado is genuinely in play this year.
posted by scody at 11:36 AM on October 3, 2008

CO - Obama
FL - McCain
IN - McCain
MN - Obama
MO - McCain
NV - Obama
NH - Obama
NC - McCain
OH - McCain
VA - McCain

Popular vote: McCain by 2.9%
posted by JParker at 11:36 AM on October 3, 2008

Obama sweeps all ten states. Popular vote margin +5.2% Obama.
posted by EarBucket at 11:38 AM on October 3, 2008

CO - Obama
FL - Obama
IN - McCain
MN - Obama
MO - Obama
NV - Obama
NH - Obama
NC - Obama
OH - Obama
VA - Obama

Popular vote: Obama by 5.5%
posted by DreamerFi at 11:42 AM on October 3, 2008

CO - Obama
FL - Obama
IN - Obama
MN - Obama
MO - McCain
NV - McCain
NH - McCain
NC - Obama
OH - McCain
VA - Obama

Obama by 4.3%
posted by Rock Steady at 12:01 PM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - Mccain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Obama by 4.5%
posted by suedehead at 12:35 PM on October 3, 2008

I am going to bet based on my best case scenario, rather than any rational thought (I could have planned the Iraq war):

All of America feels a psychic connection with the Spirit of America that enters into all of us at the same time. This spirit compels all neocons and Fox News anchors to leave their offices and homes and tear their clothes and put on sack cloths and cover themselves in ashes and vow to wander the land penniless and powerless until they die in shame for the harm that they have caused. Everyone that voted Republican anytime since Eisenhower feels so much remorse that they send "I'm sorry" notes to their friends and families and volunteer to do 40 hours of community service in a community of people who don't look like them. Obama is elected with 100% of the vote and all the newly empty seats in legislatures all over the country (following the penitent neocons leaving their posts) are filled with Greens and other third parties (no libertarians, they all figure out how dumb they are and vow to stay out of politics and just concentrate on being the best IT employees they can be) and the voting system is reformed to allow for proportional representation and completely publicly funded elections. Obama then leads America into a golden age of peace and prosperity.

Also somebody hits Sarah Palin in the face with a shovel.
posted by ND¢ at 12:42 PM on October 3, 2008 [11 favorites]

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - Obama
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - Obama
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Obama by 11.1%

And I have a hunch some of those super red states will experience a reverse Bradley effect, at least enough to raise the percentages a few points. I have no idea where all this optimism is coming from but it feels pretty good.
posted by maryh at 1:02 PM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - McCain
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - McCain
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Popular Vote: Obama, by 5.35%
posted by chrisamiller at 1:32 PM on October 3, 2008

Virginia - McCain (Virginia vs. Loving)

You may wish to update your bookmarks. Virginia is basically a blue state at this point -- locally, that is. My guess is that Obama will narrowly take Virginia.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 1:57 PM on October 3, 2008

Colorado: Obama
Florida: Obama
Indiana: McCain
Minnesota: Obama
Missouri: McCain
Nevada: Obama
New Hampshire: Obama
North Carolina: McCain
Ohio: Obama
Virginia: Obama

Popular Vote: Obama 5.5%
posted by Juffo-Wup at 1:59 PM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - McCain
Virginia - Obama

Popular vote: 0.8% McCain
posted by Stylus Happenstance at 2:21 PM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - McCain
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - McCain
Virginia - Obama

Popular Vote: Obama 2.8%
posted by evinrude at 2:22 PM on October 3, 2008

Minnesota: Kang

Hey now.
posted by goodnewsfortheinsane at 3:02 PM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - Change-o-Rama
Florida - Change-o-Rama
Indiana - Moose and Squirrel
Minnesota - Change-o-Rama
Missouri - Change-o-Rama
Nevada - Moose and Squirrel
New Hampshire - Change-o-Rama
North Carolina - Moose and Squirrel
Ohio - Change-o-Rama
Virginia - Change-o-Rama

Popular vote: Change-o-Rama by 8.44%

Poplar vote: The Larch, by 4.0215%
posted by Kirth Gerson at 3:20 PM on October 3, 2008 [2 favorites]

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - McCain
Virginia - McCain

Popular vote: Obama gets 1.2% more votes than McCain.
posted by chimaera at 3:28 PM on October 3, 2008

Colorado: Obama
Florida: McCain
Indiana: Obama
Minnesota: Obama
Missouri: Obama
Nevada: Obama
New Hampshire: McCain
North Carolina: Obama
Ohio: McCain
Virginia: McCain

Popular: Obama by 10.3%
posted by toxic at 4:28 PM on October 3, 2008

Colorado: Obama
Florida: Obama
Indiana: McCain
Minnesota: Obama
Missouri: McCain
Nevada: Obama
New Hampshire: Obama
North Carolina: McCain
Ohio: Obama
Virginia: Obama

Popular: Obama by 4.1%
posted by Benny Andajetz at 4:34 PM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - McCain
Indiana - Obama
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - McCain
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Obama by 4.4%.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 4:47 PM on October 3, 2008

OR!

Colorado - Obama
Florida - McCain
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - McCain
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - McCain
Virginia - McCain

And we're ALL FUCKED FOREVER. Choose your own adventure! My guess -- guess -- is that Ohio and Virginia have both had more than enough of GOP politics on a local level, and will probably carry that disdain over into the presidential election. Additionally, election hijinx certainly would be very hard to pull off in Ohio this time around. Northern Virginia is very blue, and NOVA has powered some big wins, including Jim Webb's, of late; the question is whether the rest of VA will show up at the polls. If so...maybe still McCain? Anyhow, my other guess is that a blue Ohio and a blue PA (the latter looking extremely likely) would possibly mean blue Indiana. (People in this region share many concerns...) But! If Ohio should go the other way -- which, no hijinx, could still realistically happen -- a blue Indiana seems less likely; whatever moved Ohio to vote McCain would, I think, also be true of voters in Indiana. (Of course, Florida could also move to Obama, which would balance out these losses to some degree; it's obvious that Obama's gaining ground in Florida, but I'm not sure there's enough time.)
posted by kittens for breakfast at 5:17 PM on October 3, 2008

Results so far
(go ahead. Vote for Koros. THROW AWAY your vote!)

008     Colorado M      xxxx
076     Colorado O      xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

042     Florida M       xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
044     Florida O       xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

057     Indiana M       xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
027     Indiana O       xxxxxxxxxxxxxx

005     Minnesota M     xxx
081     Minnesota O     xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

066     Missouri M      xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
018     Missouri O      xxxxxxxxx

030     Nevada M        xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
055     Nevada O        xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

010     NewHampshire M  xxxxx
075     NewHampshire O  xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

057     NorthCarolina M xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
028     NorthCarolina O xxxxxxxxxxxxxx

024     Ohio M          xxxxxxxxxxxx
062     Ohio O          xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

022     Virginia M      xxxxxxxxxxx
064     Virginia O      xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

posted by hexatron at 5:41 PM on October 3, 2008 [3 favorites]

And we're ALL FUCKED FOREVER.

Why? Under your scenario, Obama wins the electoral college with 273 electoral votes.

He doesn't need Ohio OR Florida OR Virginia OR Indiana, people.
posted by dersins at 5:41 PM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - Obama
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - Obama
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama


Obama by 4.1%
posted by rbellon at 5:58 PM on October 3, 2008

Why? Under your scenario, Obama wins the electoral college with 273 electoral votes.

Well, that's presuming that everything else plays out according to plan. I'm not sure there are any safe assumptions in this. One "safe" state turning out to be not so safe after all could sink him if the margin is that close.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 5:58 PM on October 3, 2008

I'm going to 'trust the model' and just go with 538's projections.

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - Obama
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Popular - Obama +3.9%
posted by empath at 7:06 PM on October 3, 2008

Colorado       : Obama
Florida        : Obama
Indiana        : Obama
Minnesota      : Obama
Missouri       : Obama
Nevada         : Obama
New Hampshire  : Obama
North Carolina : Obama
Ohio           : Obama
Virginia       : Obama

I'm surprised to find myself writing 'Obama' against Indiana and Missouri but, like empath, I'm paying close attention to fivethirtyeight. The reporting, as well as the models.

Hm... popular vote...

Based on previous observation, when the US electorate gets a sniff of a definite winner, large portions of it abandon the other side at the end. People seem to not want to vote for the guy who lost.

Fuck it: 13.5%. It's a better bet than sharing the prize with someone else trying to pin the tail on a donkey in the 4-7% range.
posted by genghis at 8:12 PM on October 3, 2008

Colorado Obama
Florida McCain
Indiana MCcain
Minnesota Obama
Missouri McCain
Nevada Obama
New Hampshire Obama
North Carolina Obama
Ohio Obama
Virginia McCain

Obama popular vote by 1.3%
posted by clockworkjoe at 8:49 PM on October 3, 2008

All Obama.
Obama 56% McCain 43%
posted by Neiltupper at 10:03 PM on October 3, 2008

CO Obama
FL Obama
IN McCain
MN Obama
MO McCain
NV Obama
NH Obama
NC McCain
OH Obama
VA Obama

Obama by 2.1% of the votes

As much as I hope I'm wrong, I can't help but think Obama has less of a chance than the pollsters imagine in MO and IN. I'm pretty sure the people forecasting victories for him there have never actually been to Missouri or Indiana.
posted by kyleg at 10:15 PM on October 3, 2008

I predict a big McCain win in whatever state Springfield is supposed to be in.
posted by Rhaomi at 10:56 PM on October 3, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - Obama
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

popular vote: Obama 6.4%
posted by starzero at 11:19 PM on October 3, 2008

Colorado Obama
Florida McCain
Indiana McCain
Minnesota Obama
Missouri McCain
Nevada McCain
New Hampshire Obama
North Carolina McCain
Ohio Obama
Virginia Obama

Obama by 3%
posted by I Foody at 5:22 AM on October 4, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - Obama
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Obama wins with 1.9%
posted by Mach5 at 9:00 AM on October 4, 2008

Colorado: obama
Florida: mccain
Indiana: mccain
Minnesota: obama
Missouri: mccain
Nevada: mccain
New Hampshire obama
North Carolina mccain
Ohio obama
Virginia obama

Obama - wins by popular vote by 1.2 % [but McCain - wins electoral college vote]
posted by fizzix at 9:46 AM on October 4, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - McCain
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - McCain
Virginia - Obama

All pointing to a moderately narrow Obama EV win.

Popular: Obama by 2.5%

Donations to American Indian OIC.
posted by gimonca at 10:27 AM on October 4, 2008

I also predict that we will be drinking heavily on the evening of Nov. 4, for one reason or another.
posted by gimonca at 10:29 AM on October 4, 2008 [4 favorites]

Pessimistically:

Colorado - McCain
Florida - McCain
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - McCain
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - McCain
Virginia - McCain

Popular: Obama 1%
posted by gubo at 11:02 AM on October 4, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - Obama
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Obama by 4.7%
posted by brina at 1:42 PM on October 4, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - Obama
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - Obama
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - McCain

Popular: Obama by 12.2%
posted by Dr. Zira at 3:50 PM on October 4, 2008

OOPS: I meant to give Virginia to Obama:

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - Obama
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - Obama
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama
Popular: Obama by 12.2%
posted by Dr. Zira at 3:51 PM on October 4, 2008

Colorado-O
Florida-O
Indiana-M
Minnesota-O
Missouri-M
Nevada-M
New Hampshire-O
North Carolina-M
Ohio-M
Virginia-O

Popular: Obama by 2.1%
posted by darth_tedious at 5:28 PM on October 4, 2008

Colorado-Obama
Florida-McCain
Indiana-McCain
Minnesota-Obama
Missouri-McCain
Nevada-McCain
New Hampshire-Obama
North Carolina-McCain
Ohio-McCain
Virginia-McCain

Popular: Obama by 0.9%

Obama wins EC by winning Kerry states plus IA, NM, and CO.
posted by diefladermaus at 5:47 PM on October 4, 2008

Colorado- Obama
Florida- Obama
Indiana- Josiah
Minnesota- Obama
Missouri- Obama
Nevada- Obama
New Hampshire- Obama
North Carolina- Obama (btw if this happens we should dig of jesse helms body and harness the power of him spinning over and over...)
Ohio- Obama
Virginia- Obama

ROUT

Obama by 6.9% nationally teaser rate....
posted by Dreamghost at 5:53 PM on October 4, 2008

fizzix: "Colorado: obama
Florida: mccain
Indiana: mccain
Minnesota: obama
Missouri: mccain
Nevada: mccain
New Hampshire obama
North Carolina mccain
Ohio obama
Virginia obama

Obama - wins by popular vote by 1.2 % [but McCain - wins electoral college vote]"

Um, you might want to check your electoral math. Barring any unforseen swings in the other states, plugging those results into the national model gives Obama a comfortable electoral win of 306 to McCain's 232.
posted by Rhaomi at 6:06 PM on October 4, 2008

Colorado McCain
Florida Obama
Indiana Obama
Minnesota Obama
Missouri Obama
Nevada McCain
New Hampshire Obama
North Carolina Obama
Ohio Obama
Virginia Obama

Obama by 4.2%
posted by bjgeiger at 6:17 PM on October 4, 2008

Colorado - M
Florida - M
Indiana - O
Minnesota - O
Missouri - M
Nevada - O
New Hampshire - O
North Carolina - M
Ohio - M
Virginia - O

McCain by 3.1 %


(I do not think McCain will actually win, but if he does, I'll a little bit of (cold, clammy, wretched) comfort from winning $50.00 for charity.)

Charity: Native American Rights Fund
posted by palmcorder_yajna at 8:30 PM on October 4, 2008

To enter, predict

1) Which candidate will win each of the following ten states (which are currently the ten closest contests according to pollster.com).

Colorado OBAMA
Florida MCCAIN
Indiana MCCAIN
Minnesota OBAMA
Missouri MCCAIN
Nevada OBAMA
New Hampshire OBAMA
North Carolina OBAMA
Ohio OBAMA
Virginia OBAMA

Obama by 51.2%

Charity: Planned Parenthood
posted by lunasol at 9:24 PM on October 4, 2008

Crap, I did it wrong! I meant: Obama by 4.1 points.
posted by lunasol at 9:26 PM on October 4, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri -Obama
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia -Obama

popular - Obama by 10.8%

Charity: Families Against Mandatory Minimums
posted by drjimmy11 at 10:01 PM on October 4, 2008

Colorado: McCain
Florida: McCain
Indiana: Obama
Minnesota: Obama
Missouri: McCain
Nevada: McCain
New Hampshire: Obama
North Carolina: McCain
Ohio: Obama
Virginia: McCain

Overall popular vote:
McCain: 53%
Obama: 44%
Other: 3%

So McCain by 9%
posted by davidmsc at 3:26 AM on October 5, 2008

Colorado - McCain
Florida - McCain
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - McCain
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - McCain
Virginia - Obama

Two party preferred:

McCain - 52.85%
Obama - 46.45%
Other - The remainder

I will never be happier to be more wrong in my life.
posted by Neale at 4:05 AM on October 5, 2008

Colorado - McCain
Florida - McCain
Indiana - Obama
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - Obama
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Popular - 8.7% Obama
posted by jacalata at 4:10 AM on October 5, 2008

Colorado - McCain
Florida - Obama
Indiana - Obama
Minnesota - McCain
Missouri - Obama
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - McCain
North Carolina - Obama
Ohio - McCain
Virginia - Obama

Obama will win electoral college.
Popular vote: McCain will win by 1.3%.
posted by ejaned8 at 7:54 AM on October 5, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - McCain
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Obama by 5.8%
posted by wearyaswater at 11:18 AM on October 5, 2008

FWIW, Pollster.com has painted Minnesota blue.
posted by Sys Rq at 11:23 AM on October 5, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - McCain
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - McCain

Popular vote: McCain - 1.1%
posted by kittyprecious at 11:35 AM on October 5, 2008

Poplar - 3.2% Obama
posted by ThePinkSuperhero at 7:55 PM on October 2 [+] [!]


Trees can't vote!
posted by Weighted Companion Cube at 7:56 PM on October 2 [8 favorites +] [!]


That's right, birches.
posted by 445supermag at 11:53 AM on October 5, 2008 [5 favorites]

Colorado - Obama
Florida - McCain
Indiana - Obama
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - McCain
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Poplar - 2.8% Obama
posted by Vindaloo at 11:56 AM on October 5, 2008

I'm taking the boring route and going directly with FiveThirtyEight's latest numbers:

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - Obama
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Obama by 4.1%
posted by burnmp3s at 12:37 PM on October 5, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia – Obama

Obama by 9.1%
posted by suncoursing at 1:37 PM on October 5, 2008

Colorado - McCain
Florida - McCain
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - McCain
Virginia - McCain

McCain by 4.5 %

This is my strategy: Generally speaking, I can hold my drink. I'm going to try to find one person to buy me a drink for every percentage point that I'm wrong by. By the end of the night I hope to be absolutely shitfaced.
posted by ob at 1:54 PM on October 5, 2008

Colorado- McCain
Florida- Obama
Indiana- McCain
Minnesota- Obama
Nevada- McCain
New Hampshire- Obama
North Carolina- McCain
Ohio- McCain
Virignia- McCain

Obama by 1.7%
posted by jnaps at 2:07 PM on October 5, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - McCain
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri -McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Obama by 0.9%
posted by beagle at 2:50 PM on October 5, 2008

Colorado -- Obama
Florida -- Obama
Indiana -- McCain
Minnesota -- Obama
Missouri -- McCain
Nevada -- Obama
New Hampshire -- Obama
North Carolina -- McCain
Ohio -- McCain
Virginia -- Obama

Obama by 2.0%
posted by blue mustard at 4:43 PM on October 5, 2008

Colorado - O
Florida - O
Indiana - O
Minnesota - O
Missouri - O
Nevada - O
New Hampshire - O
North Carolina - O
Ohio - O
Virginia - O

Obama by 9% and 360+ electoral votes
posted by schyler523 at 6:17 PM on October 5, 2008

Colorado-Obama
Florida-Obama
Indiana-McCain
Minnesota-Obama
Missouri-McCain
Nevada-Obama
New Hampshire
North Carolina-McCcain
Ohio-Obama
Virginia-McCain

Obama by 5.4%
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 6:56 PM on October 5, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - Obama
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - Obama
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Obama by 5.1%.
posted by Iridic at 7:53 PM on October 5, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - Obama
Ohio - McCain
Virginia - Obama

Obama by 4.0%
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 7:55 PM on October 5, 2008

no metafilter backed candidate has ever won the election.
posted by sgt.serenity at 9:43 PM on October 5, 2008 [2 favorites]

Colorado - McCain
Florida - McCain
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - McCain
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - McCain
New Hampshire - McCain
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Obama by 2.4%
posted by dw at 7:37 AM on October 6, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - Obama
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Obama by 5%
posted by Weebot at 12:19 PM on October 6, 2008

Since entries were due by midnight, shouldn't this be closed now?
posted by halcyon_daze at 2:05 PM on October 6, 2008

Current score. Kind of a bore?

017	Colorado M      xxxxxxxxx
108	Colorado O      xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

059	Florida M       xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
068	Florida O       xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

083	Indiana M       xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
040	Indiana O       xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

007	Minnesota M     xxxx
121	Minnesota O     xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

098	Missouri M      xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
026	Missouri O      xxxxxxxxxxxxx

040	Nevada M        xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
086	Nevada O        xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

013	NewHampshire M  xxxxxxx
112	NewHampshire O  xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

079	NorthCarolina M xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
046	NorthCarolina O xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

034	Ohio M          xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
092	Ohio O          xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

029	Virginia M      xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
096	Virginia O      xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

posted by hexatron at 6:56 PM on October 6, 2008 [1 favorite]

I didn't name my charity before. Not that we were required to, of course, and I wasn't going to name mine unless I won, which is pretty unlikely.

But as of last night, I've changed my mind on which charity I'd like to support.

If I win, I would like the donation to go to the excellent, and unfairly maligned, Adler Planetarium in Chicago.

And just for the record, Senator McCain, if someone tells me they want to use my hard-earned tax dollars to improve science museums and planetariums, my response is HELL YEAH.
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 1:39 PM on October 8, 2008 [3 favorites]

crap. I did this last week, but forgot to post.

O | Colorado
O | Florida
O | Indiana (oh please oh please)
O | Minnesota
M | Missouri
O | Nevada
O | New Hampshire
M | North Carolina
O | Ohio
O | Virginia

Obama by 4.8%

Charities split between the ACLU and Amnesty Int.
posted by xorry at 6:36 PM on October 9, 2008

oh, haha.. I'm like four days too late. Good luck everybody! especially doublewhiskycokenoice for the hold steady d4 reference.
posted by xorry at 6:47 PM on October 9, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - McCain
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Obama wins by 5.5%.
FINISH HIM.
posted by casarkos at 8:38 PM on October 11, 2008

O, O, O, O, O, O, O, O, O, O

Obama wins all but one vote (he himself votes for John McCain just to be polite).
posted by Flunkie at 11:11 PM on October 11, 2008 [1 favorite]

Eponysterical.
posted by Eideteker at 4:13 AM on October 12, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - McCain
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - Obama
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Obama by 5.2%
posted by paddbear at 10:22 AM on October 15, 2008

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama

Obama by 4.8%
posted by rocket88 at 1:47 PM on October 17, 2008

CO - Obama
FL - Obama
IN - McCain
MN - Obama
MO - McCain
NV - Obama
NH - Obama
NC - Obama
OH - Obama
VA - Obama

Obama by 4%
posted by box at 10:50 AM on October 18, 2008

Oh, wait, I'm two weeks late.
posted by box at 1:00 PM on October 18, 2008

Aw, snap. I noticed this way too late to be able to cream y'all again. I'll have to sleep with my Gerald Ford action figure tonight for consolation.
posted by abcde at 9:49 PM on October 24, 2008

That Ford action figure is great. When you pull the string, he says 'I'm a Ford, not a Lincoln.'
posted by box at 7:57 AM on October 25, 2008

O | Colorado
O | Florida
M | Indiana
O | Minnesota
M | Missouri
O | Nevada
O | New Hampshire
M | North Carolina
M | Ohio
O | Virginia

Obama by 7.3%
0010100110 O+7.3
posted by gregv at 9:22 PM on October 26, 2008

Colorado -- Obama
Florida -- McCain
Indiana -- McCain
Minnesota -- Obama
Missouri -- Obama
Nevada -- Obama
New Hampshire -- Obama
North Carolina -- Obama
Ohio -- McCain
Virginia -- Obama

Obama by 5.7%
posted by x_3mta3 at 3:36 PM on October 27, 2008

1) Which candidate will win each of the following ten states (which are currently the ten closest contests according to pollster.com).

Colorado: Obama
Florida: Obama
Indiana: Obama
Minnesota: Obama
Missouri: Obama
Nevada: Obama
New Hampshire: Obama
North Carolina: Obama
Ohio: Obama
Virginia: Obama

2) Obama by 8.2%
posted by grubi at 8:40 PM on October 27, 2008

And my charity of choice is the American Indian College Fund.
posted by grubi at 8:41 PM on October 27, 2008

1)

Colorado: Obama
Florida: Obama
Indiana: McCain
Minnesota: Obama
Missouri: Obama
Nevada: Obama
New Hampshire: Obama
North Carolina: Obama
Ohio: Obama
Virginia: Obama

2) Obama by 6.6%

3) My Charity is Planned Parenthood, and send it in the name of Sarah Palin.
posted by Mcable at 4:53 PM on November 1, 2008

On preview, I didn't see the deadline. Never mind.
posted by Mcable at 4:53 PM on November 1, 2008