The First Great Canadian Biennial Metafilter Election Contest

October 4, 2008 10:43 AM

There is an election happening in the Great White North too. Post your election predictions here in this thread.

Maximum Score: 308 points

Deadline: When the first polls close in Newfoundland.
==========
Date of prediction: 50 points
5 points per day prior to election. eg, Oct 13 = 5 points, Oct 4 = 50 points

The day ends at midnight Pacific Standard Time.

You may make as many predictions as you want, but only the latest one will be used.
==========
1. What will be the result of the 40th General Election?
(50 points)

Conservative Majority
Conservative Minority
Liberal Minority
Liberal Majority
Other
==========
2. Predict the order the 5 parties will finish, by popular vote (%).
(5 points per correct line, 25 points total)

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
==========
3. Predict the order the 5 parties will finish, by number of seats.
(5 points per correct line, 25 points total)

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
==========
4. How many seats will each party get?
(start with 50 points, and lose one point for each seat incorrect)

Bloc:
Conservative:
Green:
Liberal:
NDP:
==========
5. Will the following people win their riding?
(10 points each, 50 points total)

Elizabeth May, Green, Central Nova
Justin Trudeau, Liberal, Papineau
Donna Cadman, Conservative, Surrey North
Garth Turner, Liberal, Halton
David Orchard, Liberal, Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River
==========
6. Each question is worth 5 points, for a total of 50 points.

A. What party will win the most seats in British Columbia?
B. Will the Conservatives win every seat in Alberta?
C. Who will win more seats in Saskatchewan, the NDP or the Liberals?
D. Who will win more seats in Manitoba, the NDP or the Liberals?
E. What party will win the most seats in Ontario?
F. What party will win the most seats in Quebec?
G. What party will win the most seats in New Brunswick?
H. What party will win the most seats in Nova Scotia?
I. What party will win the most seats in Prince Edward Island?
J. Will the Conservatives be shut out of Newfoundland?
==========
7. Will the Greens win any seats? (8 points)
==========

The prize will be a printed intaglio portrait of Sir Wilfred Laurier.

posted by angrybeaver to MetaFilter-related at 10:43 AM (67 comments total)

I apologize for making the tone of the contest below so USian centric. My language really does take it for granted that the only election anyone would care about is the US one. I regretted that immediately after posting, and for doing my small part to contribute to American egomania.
posted by gsteff at 10:58 AM on October 4, 2008

er, and apologize for
posted by gsteff at 10:59 AM on October 4, 2008

I watched the Canadian election returns a couple years ago, when Steven Harper was newly voted in. It was interesting in a way the U.S. elections aren't -- probably largely due to the lack of Canadian campaign fatigue, and partly due to contributions from Rick Mercer.

I'd do it again, if we could still get the CBC.
posted by ardgedee at 11:10 AM on October 4, 2008

1. What will be the result of the 40th General Election?
Conservative Minority

2. Predict the order the 5 parties will finish, by popular vote (%).
1. Conservative
2. NDP
3. Liberal
4. Green
5. Bloc

3. Predict the order the 5 parties will finish, by number of seats.
1. Conservative
2. Liberal
3. Bloc
4. NDP
5. Green

4. How many seats will each party get?
Bloc: 50
Conservative: 129
Green: 2
Liberal: 87
NDP: 38
Independent: 2

5. Will the following people win their riding?

Elizabeth May, Green, Central Nova NO
Justin Trudeau, Liberal, Papineau YES
Donna Cadman, Conservative, Surrey YES
Garth Turner, Liberal, Halton NO
David Orchard, Liberal, Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River YES

6. Each question is worth 5 points, for a total of 50 points.

A. What party will win the most seats in British Columbia? NDP
B. Will the Conservatives win every seat in Alberta? NO
C. Who will win more seats in Saskatchewan, the NDP or the Liberals? NDP
D. Who will win more seats in Manitoba, the NDP or the Liberals? NDP
E. What party will win the most seats in Ontario? Liberals
F. What party will win the most seats in Quebec? Bloc
G. What party will win the most seats in New Brunswick? Conservatives
H. What party will win the most seats in Nova Scotia? NDP
I. What party will win the most seats in Prince Edward Island? Liberals
J. Will the Conservatives be shut out of Newfoundland? NO

7. Will the Greens win any seats?
Yes, two.

posted by Alvy Ampersand at 11:26 AM on October 4, 2008

If I'm wrong on #1, I am so moving to the States.
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 11:27 AM on October 4, 2008

There's a what in the where now?
posted by baphomet at 11:28 AM on October 4, 2008

The prize will be a printed intaglio portrait of Sir Wilfred Laurier.

A fiver? Weak. I've seen better action at Casino Nite for Scouts.
posted by CKmtl at 11:33 AM on October 4, 2008

Is this some viral marketing spam for some movie or video game? What's going on? What the hell is 'Canada'?

My Prediction: this thread will just palin comparison to other election threads.
posted by Elmore at 11:40 AM on October 4, 2008

Election in the great white north? Well, I think Santa will probably get in again. Sure, he won't get the Jewish vote, but that's never been a problem for him before.
posted by the quidnunc kid at 11:41 AM on October 4, 2008

Other countries elect stuff?
posted by mudpuppie at 12:00 PM on October 4, 2008

I haven't followed Canadian politics for years, but for a fiver I'll take a wild guess...

1. What will be the result of the 40th General Election?
(50 points)
Other
==========
2. Predict the order the 5 parties will finish, by popular vote (%).
(5 points per correct line, 25 points total)

1.Green
2.Christian Heritage
3.NDP
4.Bloc
5.Liberal
==========
3. Predict the order the 5 parties will finish, by number of seats.
(5 points per correct line, 25 points total)

1.Bloc
2.Liberal
3.Conservative
4.NDP
5.Green
==========
4. How many seats will each party get?
(start with 50 points, and lose one point for each seat incorrect)

Bloc:67
Conservative:66
Green:61
Liberal:61
NDP:53
==========
5. Will the following people win their riding?
(10 points each, 50 points total)

Elizabeth May, Green, Central Nova YES
Justin Trudeau, Liberal, Papineau YES
Donna Cadman, Conservative, Surrey North YES
Garth Turner, Liberal, Halton YES
David Orchard, Liberal, Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River NO
==========
6. Each question is worth 5 points, for a total of 50 points.

A. What party will win the most seats in British Columbia? NDP
B. Will the Conservatives win every seat in Alberta? YES
C. Who will win more seats in Saskatchewan, the NDP or the Liberals? NONE
D. Who will win more seats in Manitoba, the NDP or the Liberals? NONE
E. What party will win the most seats in Ontario? Liberal
F. What party will win the most seats in Quebec? Bloc
G. What party will win the most seats in New Brunswick? Green
H. What party will win the most seats in Nova Scotia? Green
I. What party will win the most seats in Prince Edward Island? Green
J. Will the Conservatives be shut out of Newfoundland? YES
==========
7. Will the Greens win any seats? (8 points) YES
==========
posted by Meatbomb at 12:12 PM on October 4, 2008

1. conservative minority

2. conservative, liberal, bloc, ndp, green

3. conservative, liberal, ndp, bloc, green

4.
Bloc: 51
Conservative: 124
Green: 0
Liberal: 103
NDP: 29

5. Elizabeth May: No
Justin Trudeu: Yes
Donna Cadman: No
Garth Turner: Yes
David Orchard: No

6.
A. What party will win the most seats in British Columbia? Conservative
B. Will the Conservatives win every seat in Alberta? Yes
C. Who will win more seats in Saskatchewan, the NDP or the Liberals? Liberals
D. Who will win more seats in Manitoba, the NDP or the Liberals? Liberals
E. What party will win the most seats in Ontario? Liberals
F. What party will win the most seats in Quebec? Bloc
G. What party will win the most seats in New Brunswick? Liberals
H. What party will win the most seats in Nova Scotia? Liberals
I. What party will win the most seats in Prince Edward Island? Liberals
J. Will the Conservatives be shut out of Newfoundland? Liberals

7. No
posted by Gary at 12:27 PM on October 4, 2008

I got 2 and 3 mixed up:

2. Popular Vote: conservative, liberal, ndp, bloc, green

3. Number of Seats: conservative, liberal, bloc, ndp, green
posted by Gary at 12:29 PM on October 4, 2008

I think we've all heard quite enough about Alaska now, thanks.
posted by Cyrano at 12:53 PM on October 4, 2008

I predict the populist but dumb Daggett will defeat the elitist Norbert by 2.4%
posted by wendell at 1:22 PM on October 4, 2008

1. What will be the result of the 40th General Election? Conservative Minority

2. Predict the order the 5 parties will finish, by popular vote (%): Liberal, Conservative, NDP, Bloc, Green

3. Predict the order the 5 parties will finish, by number of seats: Conservative, Liberal, NDP, Bloc, Green

4. How many seats will each party get? Conservative 122; Liberal 100; Bloc 48; NDP 33; Green: 3.

5. Will the following people win their riding?

Elizabeth May, Green, Central Nova: yes
Justin Trudeau, Liberal, Papineau: yes
Donna Cadman, Conservative, Surrey North: no
Garth Turner, Liberal, Halton: yes
David Orchard, Liberal, Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River: yes

6. Each question is worth 5 points, for a total of 50 points.

A. What party will win the most seats in British Columbia? Conservatives
B. Will the Conservatives win every seat in Alberta? Yes
C. Who will win more seats in Saskatchewan, the NDP or the Liberals? Liberals
D. Who will win more seats in Manitoba, the NDP or the Liberals? It'll stay equal, with 3 seats each as it is now.
E. What party will win the most seats in Ontario? Liberals
F. What party will win the most seats in Quebec? Bloc
G. What party will win the most seats in New Brunswick? Liberals
H. What party will win the most seats in Nova Scotia? Liberals
I. What party will win the most seats in Prince Edward Island? Liberals
J. Will the Conservatives be shut out of Newfoundland? No.

7. Will the Greens win any seats? Yes, 3.
posted by orange swan at 1:40 PM on October 4, 2008

1. What will be the result of the 40th General Election? Conservative Minority

2. Predict the order the 5 parties will finish, by popular vote (%): Conservative, Liberal, NDP, Green, Bloc

3. Predict the order the 5 parties will finish, by number of seats: Conservative, Liberal, NDP, Bloc, Green

4. How many seats will each party get? Conservative 125; Liberal 100; Bloc 48; NDP 33; Green: 0.

5. Will the following people win their riding?

Elizabeth May, Green, Central Nova: no
Justin Trudeau, Liberal, Papineau: yes
Donna Cadman, Conservative, Surrey North: no
Garth Turner, Liberal, Halton: yes
David Orchard, Liberal, Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River: yes

6. Each question is worth 5 points, for a total of 50 points.

A. What party will win the most seats in British Columbia? Conservatives
B. Will the Conservatives win every seat in Alberta? Yes
C. Who will win more seats in Saskatchewan, the NDP or the Liberals? Liberals
D. Who will win more seats in Manitoba, the NDP or the Liberals? NDP
E. What party will win the most seats in Ontario? Liberals
F. What party will win the most seats in Quebec? Bloc
G. What party will win the most seats in New Brunswick? Liberals
H. What party will win the most seats in Nova Scotia? Liberals
I. What party will win the most seats in Prince Edward Island? Liberals
J. Will the Conservatives be shut out of Newfoundland? Yes

7. Will the Greens win any seats? No
posted by scabrous at 1:48 PM on October 4, 2008

No questions about the Territories. :(
posted by ODiV at 2:04 PM on October 4, 2008

Post your election predictions here in this thread.

Back bacon by a narrow margin over real bacon.
posted by dersins at 2:27 PM on October 4, 2008

5.A. Yes. Absolutely. Local goes national, Green in a university town (Antigonish), etc.

6.H. Conservatives. Always win, always will. Rural Nova Scotians have a real knack for voting against their own interests. However, the Liberals might barely squeak by, since our current PC Premier isn't well liked.

Those ones are easy. Here in Halifax, however, it's anyone's guess. For the last decade it's been a no-brainer win for Alexa McDonough, but now she's retiring and there's an unknown in her place. The Greens are looking legit and have a Nova Scotian leader, so there's a fairly good chance they'll Nader both or either of the NDP and Liberal votes. Adding to the clusterfuck is our municipal election just a few days later.
posted by Sys Rq at 3:10 PM on October 4, 2008

Damn! That's a long-ass list of questions.

I think Harper's going to win, I think there will be a Conservative Majority, I think funding for the arts will be slashed even more, I think Liberals will scratch their heads and ask themselves 'why the hell did we pick Dion-- a man who always looks like he's floundering in about three feet of water-- to be our leader?'

And I think the Greens will pick up two seats.
posted by Fuzzy Monster at 3:34 PM on October 4, 2008

It would have been nice if I read all the questions properly... 6J : Yes, shut out.
posted by Gary at 3:40 PM on October 4, 2008

1. Conservative Minority

2. 1. Conservative
2. Liberal
3. NDP
4. Green
5. Bloc

3. 1. Conservative
2. Liberal
3. Bloc
4. NDP
5. Green

4. Bloc: 45
Conservative: 145
Green: 0 (I hope I'm being a pessimist here)
Liberal: 90
NDP: 28

5. Elizabeth May, Green, Central Nova - No
Justin Trudeau, Liberal, Papineau - Yes
Donna Cadman, Conservative, Surrey North - No
Garth Turner, Liberal, Halton - No
David Orchard, Liberal, Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River - No

6. A. What party will win the most seats in British Columbia? Conservative
B. Will the Conservatives win every seat in Alberta? Yes
C. Who will win more seats in Saskatchewan, the NDP or the Liberals? Liberals
D. Who will win more seats in Manitoba, the NDP or the Liberals? NDP
E. What party will win the most seats in Ontario? Liberal
F. What party will win the most seats in Quebec? Bloc
G. What party will win the most seats in New Brunswick? Liberal
H. What party will win the most seats in Nova Scotia? Liberal
I. What party will win the most seats in Prince Edward Island? Liberal
J. Will the Conservatives be shut out of Newfoundland? No

7. Will the Greens win any seats? (8 points) No (but hope springs eternal)
posted by ssg at 3:46 PM on October 4, 2008

1. What will be the result of the 40th General Election?

Conservative Minority
==========
2. Predict the order the 5 parties will finish, by popular vote (%).

1. CPC
2. Grits
3. NDP
4. Green
5. Bloc
6. Marxist-Leninist Party.
7. Trotskyest Party.
8. Maoist Party.
[NOT-RACIST] Party.
==========
3. Predict the order the 5 parties will finish, by number of seats.

1. CPC
2. Liberals
3. Bloc
4. NDP
5. Green
==========
4. How many seats will each party get?
(start with 50 points, and lose one point for each seat incorrect)

Bloc: 45
Conservative: 127
Green: 1
Liberal: 97
NDP: 35
==========
5. Will the following people win their riding?
(10 points each, 50 points total)

Elizabeth May, Green, Central Nova - No, she can't fight Peter
Justin Trudeau, Liberal, Papineau - Yes
Donna Cadman, Conservative, Surrey North - nay
Garth Turner, Liberal, Halton - Yes? (hope so)
David Orchard, Liberal, Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River - yes
==========
6. Each question is worth 5 points, for a total of 50 points.

A. What party will win the most seats in British Columbia? - Conservatives
B. Will the Conservatives win every seat in Alberta? - Hells yeah
C. Who will win more seats in Saskatchewan, the NDP or the Liberals? - Liberals
D. Who will win more seats in Manitoba, the NDP or the Liberals? - NDP
E. What party will win the most seats in Ontario? - Liberals
F. What party will win the most seats in Quebec? - BQ
G. What party will win the most seats in New Brunswick? - Liberals
H. What party will win the most seats in Nova Scotia? - NDP?
I. What party will win the most seats in Prince Edward Island? - Liberals
J. Will the Conservatives be shut out of Newfoundland? - Oh yeahhhh!
==========
7. Will the Greens win any seats? (8 points) - 1, in B.C. (hopefully Blair Wilson)
posted by Lemurrhea at 5:14 PM on October 4, 2008

1. What will be the result of the 40th General Election?
(50 points)

Liberal Minority
==========
2. Predict the order the 5 parties will finish, by popular vote (%).
(5 points per correct line, 25 points total)

1. Liberals
2. Conservatives
3. NDP
4. BQ
5. Green
==========
3. Predict the order the 5 parties will finish, by number of seats.
(5 points per correct line, 25 points total)

1. Liberals
2. Conservatives
3. BQ
4. NDP
5. Green
==========
4. How many seats will each party get?
(start with 50 points, and lose one point for each seat incorrect)

Bloc: 48
Conservative: 107
Green: 2
Liberal: 117
NDP: 34
==========
5. Will the following people win their riding?
(10 points each, 50 points total)

Elizabeth May, Green, Central Nova yes
Justin Trudeau, Liberal, Papineau yes
Donna Cadman, Conservative, Surrey North no
Garth Turner, Liberal, Halton yes
David Orchard, Liberal, Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River yes
==========
6. Each question is worth 5 points, for a total of 50 points.

A. What party will win the most seats in British Columbia? Liberals
B. Will the Conservatives win every seat in Alberta? Conservatives
C. Who will win more seats in Saskatchewan, the NDP or the Liberals? NDP
D. Who will win more seats in Manitoba, the NDP or the Liberals? Liberals
E. What party will win the most seats in Ontario? Liberals
F. What party will win the most seats in Quebec? BQ
G. What party will win the most seats in New Brunswick? Liberals
H. What party will win the most seats in Nova Scotia? Conservatives
I. What party will win the most seats in Prince Edward Island? Liberals
J. Will the Conservatives be shut out of Newfoundland? Yes
==========
7. Will the Greens win any seats? (8 points) Yes
==========
posted by Kattullus at 5:51 PM on October 4, 2008

I would but as Robin Williams said "Canada is like a loft apartment over a really great party!”
posted by jonmc at 5:54 PM on October 4, 2008

Oh, Gordon Brown is so fucked. Wait... wrong thread.
posted by chuckdarwin at 6:23 PM on October 4, 2008 [1 favorite]

"Canada is like a well-built mansion with an insane asylum in its basement.”

FTFY.
posted by chuckdarwin at 6:25 PM on October 4, 2008 [1 favorite]

1. Conservative Majority
2. Conservative, NDP, Liberal, Bloc, Green
3. Conservative, NDP, Liberal, Bloc, Green
4.
Bloc: 34
Conservative: 157
Green: 1
Liberal: 36
NDP: 80
5.
Elizabeth May, Green, Central Nova NO
Justin Trudeau, Liberal, Papineau YES
Donna Cadman, Conservative, Surrey North YES
Garth Turner, Liberal, Halton NO
David Orchard, Liberal, Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River NO
6.
A. What party will win the most seats in British Columbia? Conservative
B. Will the Conservatives win every seat in Alberta? YES
C. Who will win more seats in Saskatchewan, the NDP or the Liberals? NDP
D. Who will win more seats in Manitoba, the NDP or the Liberals? NDP
E. What party will win the most seats in Ontario? Conservative
F. What party will win the most seats in Quebec? Bloc
G. What party will win the most seats in New Brunswick? Liberal
H. What party will win the most seats in Nova Scotia? Conservative
I. What party will win the most seats in Prince Edward Island? Conservative
J. Will the Conservatives be shut out of Newfoundland? NO

7. Will the Greens win any seats? (8 points) YES

posted by angrybeaver at 6:47 PM on October 4, 2008

1) Conservative majority (alas)

2) Conservative
NDP
Liberal
Green
Bloc

3) Conservative
Liberal
NDP
Bloc
Green

4) Bloc: 38
Conservative: 149
Green: 1
Liberal: 74
NDP: 45
Independant: 1

5) Elizabeth May: YES
Justin Trudeau: NO
Donna Cadman: YES
Garth Turner: NO
David Orchard: YES

6) A: Conservative
B: No
C: NDP
D: NDP
E: Liberal
F: Bloc
G: Liberal
H: NDP
I: Liberals
J: No

7) Yes (only one)
posted by alltomorrowsparties at 7:00 PM on October 4, 2008

Kattulus: Liberal Minority

You're so cute, with your indomitable optimism.

My grasp of Western and Maritime politics is weak at best, but what the hell.

1. Conservative Minority

2. Predict the order the 5 parties will finish, by popular vote (%).
    1. Conservative
    2. NDP
    3. Liberal
    4. Bloc
    5. Green

3. Predict the order the 5 parties will finish, by number of seats.
    1. Conservative
    2. Liberal
    3. Bloc
    4. NDP
    5. Green

4. How many seats will each party get?
    Bloc: 46
    Conservative: 120
    Green: 0
    Liberal: 100
    NDP: 42

5. Will the following people win their riding?
    Elizabeth May, Green, Central Nova - No
    Justin Trudeau, Liberal, Papineau - Yes
    Donna Cadman, Conservative, Surrey North - Yes
    Garth Turner, Liberal, Halton - Yes
    David Orchard, Liberal, Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River - No

6.
    A. What party will win the most seats in British Columbia? Conservative
    B. Will the Conservatives win every seat in Alberta? Yes
    C. Who will win more seats in Saskatchewan, the NDP or the Liberals? NDP
    D. Who will win more seats in Manitoba, the NDP or the Liberals? Liberals
    E. What party will win the most seats in Ontario? Liberals
    F. What party will win the most seats in Quebec? Bloc
    G. What party will win the most seats in New Brunswick? Liberals
    H. What party will win the most seats in Nova Scotia? Liberals
    I. What party will win the most seats in Prince Edward Island? Liberals
    J. Will the Conservatives be shut out of Newfoundland? No

7. Will the Greens win any seats? No
posted by CKmtl at 7:17 PM on October 4, 2008

1. What will be the result of the 40th General Election? conservative minority
==========
2. Predict the order the 5 parties will finish, by popular vote (%).
1. Conservative
2. Liberal
3. NDP
4. Bloc
5. Green
==========
3. Predict the order the 5 parties will finish, by number of seats.
(5 points per correct line, 25 points total)

1. Con
2. Liberal
3. Bloc
4. NDP
5. Green
==========
4. How many seats will each party get?
(start with 50 points, and lose one point for each seat incorrect)

Bloc: 48
Conservative: 138
Green: 0
Liberal: 92
NDP: 30
==========
5. Will the following people win their riding?
Elizabeth May, Green, Central Nova nay
Justin Trudeau, Liberal, Papineau yea
Donna Cadman, Conservative, Surrey North nay
Garth Turner, Liberal, Halton yea
David Orchard, Liberal, Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River yea
==========
6. Each question is worth 5 points, for a total of 50 points.

A. What party will win the most seats in British Columbia? Con
B. Will the Conservatives win every seat in Alberta? yes
C. Who will win more seats in Saskatchewan, the NDP or the Liberals? Liberal
D. Who will win more seats in Manitoba, the NDP or the Liberals? Liberal
E. What party will win the most seats in Ontario? Liberal
F. What party will win the most seats in Quebec? Bloc
G. What party will win the most seats in New Brunswick? Lib
H. What party will win the most seats in Nova Scotia? Con
I. What party will win the most seats in Prince Edward Island? Lib
J. Will the Conservatives be shut out of Newfoundland? Aye
==========
7. Will the Greens win any seats? (8 points) nay
==========

*waves at ODiV*
6
K. What party will win Yukon? Liberal
L. What party will win Northwest Territories? NDP
M. What party will win Nunavut? Liberal.
N. Will the Conservatives win a seat within Vancouver, Toronto, or the island of Montreal? No.
The last four questions are worth 0 points each for a total of 0 points :)
posted by philfromhavelock at 7:19 PM on October 4, 2008

1. NDP Minority

2.
Conservative 31%
NDP 26%
Liberal 21%
Bloc 11%
Green 10%

3/4.

NDP 110
Conservative 101
Bloc 51
Liberal 40
Green 5

5. Yes to all

6.
a. NDP
b. No
c. NDP
d. Liberals
F. Bloc
G. Liberals
H. Liberals
J. Yes

7. Yes (this question is redundant with #4)
posted by winston at 7:25 PM on October 4, 2008

I'll give you a freebie, people.

You can run a bale of hay as a Conservative candidate in Alberta and get it elected.
posted by orange swan at 8:15 PM on October 4, 2008

Dirkatives: 37%
New Lerxst: 35%
Bloc Pratt: 28%
posted by Eideteker at 9:49 PM on October 4, 2008

Minority Liberal government will be the outcome of our upcoming election

Finish order by popular vote:
1. Liberal
2. Conservative
3. NDP
4. Bloc
5. Green

Will the following people win their riding?
. Elizabeth May, Green, Central Nova - yes
. Justin Trudeau, Liberal, Papineau - hell yeah. c'mon!
. Donna Cadman, Conservative, Surrey North - close but no cigar
. Garth Turner, Liberal, Halton - no idea
. David Orchard, Liberal, Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River - no idea

Greens will eke out two seats.

What party will win the most seats in British Columbia? NDP
Will the Conservatives win every seat in Alberta? no
Who will win more seats in Saskatchewan, the NDP or the Liberals? NDP
Who will win more seats in Manitoba, the NDP or the Liberals? NDP
What party will win the most seats in Ontario? Liberals
What party will win the most seats in Quebec? Bloc
What party will win the most seats in New Brunswick? Liberals
What party will win the most seats in Nova Scotia? Liberals
What party will win the most seats in Prince Edward Island? Liberals
Will the Conservatives be shut out of Newfoundland? no
posted by seawallrunner at 10:05 PM on October 4, 2008

==========
1. What will be the result of the 40th General Election?
(50 points)


Conservative Majority
Conservative Minority
Liberal Minority
Liberal Majority
Other
==========
2. Predict the order the 5 parties will finish, by popular vote (%).
(5 points per correct line, 25 points total)

1. Liberal
2 Conservative
3. NDP
4. Bloc
5. Green
==========
3. Predict the order the 5 parties will finish, by number of seats.
(5 points per correct line, 25 points total)

1. Liberal
2. Conservative
3. Bloc
4. NDP
5. Green
==========
4. How many seats will each party get?
(start with 50 points, and lose one point for each seat incorrect)

Bloc: 55
Conservative: 105
Green: 1
Liberal: 109
NDP: 38
==========
5. Will the following people win their riding?
(10 points each, 50 points total)

Elizabeth May, Green, Central Nova yes
Justin Trudeau, Liberal, Papineau yes
Donna Cadman, Conservative, Surrey North yes
Garth Turner, Liberal, Halton yes
David Orchard, Liberal, Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River no
==========
6. Each question is worth 5 points, for a total of 50 points.

A. What party will win the most seats in British Columbia? Tory
B. Will the Conservatives win every seat in Alberta? no
C. Who will win more seats in Saskatchewan, the NDP or the Liberals? NDP
D. Who will win more seats in Manitoba, the NDP or the Liberals? NDP
E. What party will win the most seats in Ontario? Liberal
F. What party will win the most seats in Quebec? Bloc
G. What party will win the most seats in New Brunswick? Liberal
H. What party will win the most seats in Nova Scotia? Liberal
I. What party will win the most seats in Prince Edward Island? Liberal
J. Will the Conservatives be shut out of Newfoundland? no
==========
7. Will the Greens win any seats? (8 points) yes
posted by Rumple at 11:59 PM on October 4, 2008

The Liberals and the NDP, on seeing that Metafilter predicts a Conservative victory, will listen to the anyone-but-Harper pundits who've been suggesting it, and merge their two parties at the last minute. A third of the NDP split off in protest to join the Green party, which is then acquired in a hostile takeover by the Bloc.

Conservative minority.
New Liberal Democrats win 91 seats, Bloc Green 58, neorhino 7.
Bale of hay is appointed minister of transport.
posted by sfenders at 4:33 AM on October 5, 2008

1. What will be the result of the 40th General Election?
Conservative Minority

2. Predict the order the 5 parties will finish, by popular vote (%).
1. CCRAP
2. NDP
3. Liberal
4. Green
5. Bloc

3. Predict the order the 5 parties will finish, by number of seats.
1. CCRAP
2. Liberal
3. Bloc
4. NDP
5. Green

4. How many seats will each party get?
Bloc: 50
CCRAP: 130
Green: 3
Liberal: 85
NDP: 40
Independent: 1

5. Will the following people win their riding?

Elizabeth May, Green, Central Nova YES
Justin Trudeau, Liberal, Papineau YES
Donna Cadman, Conservative, Surrey YES
Garth Turner, Liberal, Halton YES
David Orchard, Liberal, Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River YES

6. Each question is worth 5 points, for a total of 50 points.

A. What party will win the most seats in British Columbia? NDP
B. Will the Conservatives win every seat in Alberta? NO
C. Who will win more seats in Saskatchewan, the NDP or the Liberals? NDP
D. Who will win more seats in Manitoba, the NDP or the Liberals? NDP
E. What party will win the most seats in Ontario? Liberals
F. What party will win the most seats in Quebec? Bloc
G. What party will win the most seats in New Brunswick? Conservatives
H. What party will win the most seats in Nova Scotia? NDP
I. What party will win the most seats in Prince Edward Island? Liberals
J. Will the Conservatives be shut out of Newfoundland? YES - and when the polls start reporting it will feel so good ... for a while

7. Will the Greens win any seats?
Three.
posted by saucysault at 5:07 AM on October 5, 2008

I can only say that I am happy that Sarah Palin's term as prime minister of Canada will soon be over.
posted by koeselitz at 10:28 AM on October 5, 2008 [1 favorite]

I predict that my vote won't mean as much as it would have when I was living in the Outremont riding.
posted by furtive at 12:21 PM on October 5, 2008

<sub>1. What will be the result of the 40th General Election?
(50 points)

Liberal Minority (Hey, I'm optimistic too and the arts are fun!)
==========
2. Predict the order the 5 parties will finish, by popular vote (%).
(5 points per correct line, 25 points total)

1. Liberal 33%
2. PC 33%
3. NDP 18%
4. Bloc 8%
5. Green 8%
==========
3. Predict the order the 5 parties will finish, by number of seats.
(5 points per correct line, 25 points total)

1. Lib
2. Con
3. NDP (Although I'd really like to see Jack get his chance... he'd have to get rid of some of the kooks running for seats, however, if they ever were to become the opposition)
4. Bloc
5. Green
==========
4. How many seats will each party get?
(start with 50 points, and lose one point for each seat incorrect)

Bloc: 50
Conservative: 113
Green: 1
Liberal: 114
NDP: 30
==========
5. Will the following people win their riding?
(10 points each, 50 points total)

Elizabeth May, Green, Central Nova - No (I always thought that was such a dumb move, running against Peter... Granted she was hella impressive in the debates but can she topple the Hunk of the House?)
Justin Trudeau, Liberal, Papineau - Yes
Donna Cadman, Conservative, Surrey North - No - I'm sure she's good, but it didn't work with Arar's wife; didn't work with the Whisleblower in Ontario running for the Conservatives (whatever his name is); so I'm doubtful it'll work with her
Garth Turner, Liberal, Halton - Yes - With a kickass name like that, only a person with an even better name could beat him.
David Orchard, Liberal, Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River - No - seems like a good guy, but I don't know if he'll get in.
==========
6. Each question is worth 5 points, for a total of 50 points.

A. What party will win the most seats in British Columbia? NDP
B. Will the Conservatives win every seat in Alberta? Yes
C. Who will win more seats in Saskatchewan, the NDP or the Liberals? NDP
D. Who will win more seats in Manitoba, the NDP or the Liberals? Liberals
E. What party will win the most seats in Ontario? Liberals
F. What party will win the most seats in Quebec? Bloc
G. What party will win the most seats in New Brunswick? Liberal
H. What party will win the most seats in Nova Scotia? Liberal
I. What party will win the most seats in Prince Edward Island? Liberal
J. Will the Conservatives be shut out of Newfoundland? Yes
==========
7. Will the Greens win any seats? (8 points) - Yes (1)</sub>


posted by bitteroldman at 12:29 PM on October 5, 2008

Here goes. My exposure to Canada consists of getting CBC here south of the border.

==========
1. What will be the result of the 40th General Election?
(50 points)

Conservative Minority
==========
2. Predict the order the 5 parties will finish, by popular vote (%).
(5 points per correct line, 25 points total)

1. Conservatives
2. Labour
3. NDP
4. BQ
5. Greens
==========
3. Predict the order the 5 parties will finish, by number of seats.
(5 points per correct line, 25 points total)

1. Conservatives
2. Labour
3. BQ
4. NDP
5. Greens
==========
4. How many seats will each party get?
(start with 50 points, and lose one point for each seat incorrect)

Bloc: 46
Conservative: 137
Green: 0
Liberal: 94
NDP: 30
==========
5. Will the following people win their riding?
(10 points each, 50 points total)

Elizabeth May, Green, Central Nova - NO
Justin Trudeau, Liberal, Papineau - YES
Donna Cadman, Conservative, Surrey North - YES
Garth Turner, Liberal, Halton - YES
David Orchard, Liberal, Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River NO
==========
6. Each question is worth 5 points, for a total of 50 points.

A. What party will win the most seats in British Columbia? TORIES
B. Will the Conservatives win every seat in Alberta? YES
C. Who will win more seats in Saskatchewan, the NDP or the Liberals? LIBERALS
D. Who will win more seats in Manitoba, the NDP or the Liberals? DRAW
E. What party will win the most seats in Ontario? LIBERALS
F. What party will win the most seats in Quebec? BLOC
G. What party will win the most seats in New Brunswick? TORIES
H. What party will win the most seats in Nova Scotia? LIBERALS
I. What party will win the most seats in Prince Edward Island? LIBERALS
J. Will the Conservatives be shut out of Newfoundland? NO
==========
7. Will the Greens win any seats? (8 points) NO
==========
posted by dw at 5:07 PM on October 5, 2008

1. What will be the result of the 40th General Election? Conservative Minority

2. Predict the order the 5 parties will finish, by popular vote (%).
(5 points per correct line, 25 points total)

1. Conservative
2. Liberal
3. NDP
4. Bloc
5. Green
==========
3. Predict the order the 5 parties will finish, by number of seats.
(5 points per correct line, 25 points total)

1. Conservative
2. Liberal
3. Bloc
4. NDP
5. Green
==========
4. How many seats will each party get?

Bloc: 49
Conservative: 130
Green: 2
Liberal: 99
NDP: 28

==========
5. Will the following people win their riding?
(10 points each, 50 points total)

Elizabeth May, Green, Central Nova Yes
Justin Trudeau, Liberal, Papineau Yes
Donna Cadman, Conservative, Surrey North Yes
Garth Turner, Liberal, Halton Yes
David Orchard, Liberal, Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River Yes
==========
6. Each question is worth 5 points, for a total of 50 points.

A. What party will win the most seats in British Columbia? Conservatives
B. Will the Conservatives win every seat in Alberta? No
C. Who will win more seats in Saskatchewan, the NDP or the Liberals? NDP
D. Who will win more seats in Manitoba, the NDP or the Liberals? Liberals
E. What party will win the most seats in Ontario? Liberals
F. What party will win the most seats in Quebec? Bloc
G. What party will win the most seats in New Brunswick? Conservatives
H. What party will win the most seats in Nova Scotia? Conservatives
I. What party will win the most seats in Prince Edward Island? Liberals
J. Will the Conservatives be shut out of Newfoundland? No
==========
7. Will the Greens win any seats? (8 points) Yes (2)
==========
posted by hurdy gurdy girl at 9:02 PM on October 5, 2008

Well, since I put them in the US thread, I might as well copy them over here...
==========
1. Result
Conservative Minority

==========
2. Order of finish, % vote

1. Conservative
2. Liberal
3. NDP
4. Bloc
5. Green
==========
3. Order of finish, # seats

1. Conservative
2. Liberal
3. Bloc
4. NDP
5. Green
==========
4. # Seats

Bloc: 43
Conservative: 136
Green: 2
Liberal: 96
NDP: 30
Independent: 1
==========
5. Riding?

YES - Elizabeth May, Green, Central Nova
YES - Justin Trudeau, Liberal, Papineau
NO - Donna Cadman, Conservative, Surrey North
YES - Garth Turner, Liberal, Halton
NO - David Orchard, Liberal, Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River

(hey! what about Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley? Will Casey be returned as an independent?)
==========
6. Each question is worth 5 points, for a total of 50 points.

A. BC Party? Conservatives
B. Every seat in Alberta? Yes
C. More in Saskatchewan? Liberals
D. More in Manitoba? NDP
E. Most in Ontario? Liberals
F. Most in Quebec? Bloc
G. Most in New Brunswick? Conservatives
H. Most in Nova Scotia? Liberals
I. Most in PEI? Liberals (this question should have been about a Liberal sweep here)
J. Conservatives shut out of NL? No
==========
7. Greens ?
Yes
==========
posted by GhostintheMachine at 7:15 AM on October 6, 2008

and I assume there's no interest in the concurrent municipal elections in Nova Scotia, huh? Just four days after the federal one... it's political junkie heaven for me right now. I'm only disappointed we didn't get the expected provincial one, too.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 7:17 AM on October 6, 2008

GitM: As long as Peter Kelly gets the boot, I will be satisfied.
posted by Sys Rq at 8:01 AM on October 6, 2008

Sys Rq, you and I both know that ain't gonna happen this time around, but not for lack of trying. It's sad that Sheila Fougere is barely registering above David "androids and humans should marry" Boyd.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 9:44 AM on October 6, 2008

GhostintheMachine: We've got a municipal election coming up in BC too (mid Nov) and provincial election in May. I don't think anyone wants to hear about the municipal political scene in my city of 6000 though.
posted by ssg at 10:20 AM on October 6, 2008

dw, are you funnin' me with your talk of labour or are the brits coming back for their colony?
posted by saucysault at 11:10 AM on October 6, 2008

BTW, kudos to angrybeaver for the 308 choice.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 12:18 PM on October 6, 2008

dw, are you funnin' me with your talk of labour or are the brits coming back for their colony?

Er.

You know what's sad? I spent a couple seconds trying to remember if Canada spelled it Labor or Labour. D'oh.
posted by dw at 5:19 PM on October 7, 2008

A fiver? Weak. I've seen better action at Casino Nite for Scouts.

Feel free to kick a fiver into the pot. Seriously. Does anyone want to pledge a Laurier, Macdonald, Elizabeth, Mackenzie King or Borden?

Damn! That's a long-ass list of questions.

I had the same thought while inputting the answers into a spreadsheet.

No questions about the Territories. :(

Damn! That's a long-ass list of questions.

Bloc:67
Conservative:66
Green:61
Liberal:61
NDP:53

lol. Three party coalition government to keep the separatists out of power.

(hey! what about Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley? Will Casey be returned as an independent?)

He would've been a good addition to the list had I heard of him.

10 of 20 people think Elizabeth May will be elected. 19 people think Trudeau will get in. And it is unanimous that the Bloc will win the most seats in Quebec.

Twelve Conservative minorities and two majorities, four Liberal minorities, an NDP minority and a separatist minority are the collective wisdom of Metafilter pundits. 3 of every four people say the Greens will elect 1.47 MPs.

Feel free to update your predictions, but you will lose the time bonus for guessing early.
posted by angrybeaver at 2:32 PM on October 8, 2008

Oops. I left out 6e and 6i (Ontario and PEI). Both Liberal.
posted by winston at 6:14 PM on October 8, 2008

Is it too late to add a question about which party will screw up the most? 'cause that one's turning into the biggest battleground right now.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 9:32 AM on October 10, 2008

1. What will be the result of the 40th General Election?
(50 points)

ANSWER: Conservative Minority

Conservative Majority
Conservative Minority
Liberal Minority
Liberal Majority
Other
==========
2. Predict the order the 5 parties will finish, by popular vote (%).
(5 points per correct line, 25 points total)

1. Conservative 32
2. Liberal 29
3. NDP 25
4. Bloc 9
5. Green 5
==========
3. Predict the order the 5 parties will finish, by number of seats.
(5 points per correct line, 25 points total)

1. Conservative 130
2. Liberal 93
3. Bloc 46
4. NDP 32
5. Green 1
==========
4. How many seats will each party get?
(start with 50 points, and lose one point for each seat incorrect)

1. Conservative 130
2. Liberal 93
3. Bloc 46
4. NDP 32
5. Green 1
==========
5. Will the following people win their riding?
(10 points each, 50 points total)

NO Elizabeth May, Green, Central Nova
YES Justin Trudeau, Liberal, Papineau
YES Donna Cadman, Conservative, Surrey North
YES Garth Turner, Liberal, Halton
NO David Orchard, Liberal, Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River
==========
6. Each question is worth 5 points, for a total of 50 points.

A. What party will win the most seats in British Columbia?
CONSERVATIVE
B. Will the Conservatives win every seat in Alberta?
YES
C. Who will win more seats in Saskatchewan, the NDP or the Liberals?
NDP
D. Who will win more seats in Manitoba, the NDP or the Liberals?
LIBERALS
E. What party will win the most seats in Ontario?
LIBERAL
F. What party will win the most seats in Quebec?
BLOC
G. What party will win the most seats in New Brunswick?
LIBERAL
H. What party will win the most seats in Nova Scotia?
LIBERAL
I. What party will win the most seats in Prince Edward Island?
CONSERVATIVE
J. Will the Conservatives be shut out of Newfoundland?
NO
==========
7. Will the Greens win any seats? (8 points)
YES
==========
posted by KokuRyu at 5:12 PM on October 13, 2008

1. Conservative Minority

2.

Conservative
Liberal
NDP
Green
Bloc

3.

Conservative
Liberal
Bloc
NDP
Green

4.

Conservative, 130
Liberal, 103
Bloc, 41
NDP, 33
Green, 1

5.

Elizabeth May, Green, Central Nova: Yes, by a hair.
Justin Trudeau, Liberal, Papineau: Yes.
Donna Cadman, Conservative, Surrey North: No, by a hair.
Garth Turner, Liberal, Halton: Yes.
David Orchard, Liberal, that really long riding name: No.

6.

A. What party will win the most seats in British Columbia? NDP.
B. Will the Conservatives win every seat in Alberta? No.
C. Who will win more seats in Saskatchewan, the NDP or the Liberals? NDP.
D. Who will win more seats in Manitoba, the NDP or the Liberals? NDP.
E. What party will win the most seats in Ontario? Liberals
F. What party will win the most seats in Quebec? Bloc.
G. What party will win the most seats in New Brunswick? Conservatives.
H. What party will win the most seats in Nova Scotia? Liberals.
I. What party will win the most seats in Prince Edward Island? Liberals
J. Will the Conservatives be shut out of Newfoundland? Yes.

7. Will the Greens win any seats? Yes.

posted by thisjax at 5:58 PM on October 13, 2008

1. What will be the result of the 40th General Election? Conservative Minority
==========
2. Predict the order the 5 parties will finish, by popular vote (%).

1. Tories
2. Liberals
3. NDP
4. Green
5. BQ
==========
3. Predict the order the 5 parties will finish, by number of seats.

1. Tories
2. Liberals
3. NDP
4. BQ
5. Green
==========
4. How many seats will each party get?

Bloc: 51
Conservative: 118
Green: 1
Liberal: 100
NDP: 38

==========
5. Will the following people win their riding?

Elizabeth May, Green, Central Nova Yes
Justin Trudeau, Liberal, Papineau Yes
Donna Cadman, Conservative, Surrey North No
Garth Turner, Liberal, Halton No
David Orchard, Liberal, Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River Yes
==========
6. Each question is worth 5 points, for a total of 50 points.

A. What party will win the most seats in British Columbia? Tories
B. Will the Conservatives win every seat in Alberta? No
C. Who will win more seats in Saskatchewan, the NDP or the Liberals? NDP
D. Who will win more seats in Manitoba, the NDP or the Liberals? NDP
E. What party will win the most seats in Ontario? Liberals
F. What party will win the most seats in Quebec? BQ
G. What party will win the most seats in New Brunswick? Liberals
H. What party will win the most seats in Nova Scotia? Tories
I. What party will win the most seats in Prince Edward Island? Liberals
J. Will the Conservatives be shut out of Newfoundland? Yes
==========
7. Will the Greens win any seats? (8 points) Just one, for May
posted by maudlin at 9:53 PM on October 13, 2008

1. What will be the result of the 40th General Election?

Sadness. Depression. Dry mouth. The glimmer of smugness that even with our mini-Bush up here gay marriage will still be legal and (hopefully) the budget will still be balanced.
posted by ~ at 8:25 PM on October 14, 2008

Hey, ssg, I think you won on the seat count.
posted by philfromhavelock at 8:42 PM on October 14, 2008

Oops. It's out of 358 points, not 308. I had forgotten to include the scoring for date of prediction.

Preliminary results indicate that dw won with 292 points; and ssg and philfromhavelock tied for the seat count with 24 out of a possible 50 points.

I'm headed up to the Cariboo first thing tomorrow morning and won't be back until the 22nd. I will post the final results then and mail the fiver.
posted by angrybeaver at 11:09 PM on October 14, 2008

Hmmmm.... 203 points for me, I think, although that depends on how you count 6d (neither party had more seats, so nobody got that right).

Thanks for the fun, angrybeaver. Let's do this again in a year or two!
posted by GhostintheMachine at 5:45 AM on October 15, 2008

Wow, I won?

I'm looking forward to taking my fiver down the forex and trading it in for a dump truck full of USD!
posted by dw at 7:23 AM on October 15, 2008

I'm looking forward to taking my fiver down the forex and trading it in for a dump truck full of USD!

Um, actually, you might want to check the exchange rate. The Loonie's the lowest it's been in five years.

That blueback is now worth approximately US$4.25.

Don't worry, though. It'll probably jump back up once the ink's dry on that new batch of Washingtons.
posted by Sys Rq at 9:01 AM on October 15, 2008

May I suggest making a $5 donation to a local food bank or community support organization in the winner's name? Despite the Prime Minister's claim that "People who work hard, pay their taxes, and play by the rules are getting ahead," food banks have announced a greater demand for their services than ever before.
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 9:19 AM on October 15, 2008

Um, actually, you might want to check the exchange rate. The Loonie's the lowest it's been in five years.

I know, I know. I just miss the days when 1 USD > 1 CDN. Our honeymoon was in Victoria because it was a little cheaper than some of the other local options here in Seattle.
posted by dw at 4:19 PM on October 15, 2008

May I suggest making a $5 donation to a local food bank or community support organization in the winner's name?

I couldn't agree with that more. But please, don't donate it in my name. I don't need the publicity.

Donate it in honor of Stephen Harper's Perfect Hair. Or Jack Layton's Mustache Of Freedom. Or in memory of Stephane Dion's Missing Charisma.

But whatever you do, make some donation. It's going to be a hard winter for a lot of people on either side of the border.
posted by dw at 4:31 PM on October 15, 2008