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What are your odds of winning December's "best post" contest?
January 1, 2009 4:12 PM   Subscribe

What are your odds of winning December's "best post" contest?
posted by Joe Beese to MetaFilter-Related at 4:12 PM (80 comments total)

Exactly the same as my odds of winning the lottery.
posted by ottereroticist at 4:14 PM on January 1, 2009


Well, it would have been a slam dunk if yogurt box cat hadn't been posted already.
posted by dead cousin ted at 4:16 PM on January 1, 2009 [1 favorite]


I had great ideas but no time. Kind of like the rest of the year.
posted by Miko at 4:18 PM on January 1, 2009


About as good as Britney Spears' Guide to Semiconductor Physics.
posted by netbros at 4:18 PM on January 1, 2009 [1 favorite]


What are your odds of winning December's "best post" contest?

One in crapdillion.
posted by nola at 4:19 PM on January 1, 2009 [1 favorite]


They are exactly 1 in (number of total posts made in December).

We're meeting tomorrow to do a podcast and decide the winners, which will be announced along with the podcast writeup. Probably get it online by Monday.
posted by mathowie (staff) at 4:22 PM on January 1, 2009


The odds of anything happening are fifty-fifty. Either it happens, or it doesn't.
posted by sveskemus at 4:23 PM on January 1, 2009 [3 favorites]


I had a superb post lined up but withheld it because competition is so undignified.
Honest.
posted by Abiezer at 4:24 PM on January 1, 2009 [1 favorite]


It depends. How do the judges feel about Zunes?
posted by yellowbinder at 4:32 PM on January 1, 2009 [1 favorite]


I have a feeling I'm not winning.
posted by cortex (staff) at 4:34 PM on January 1, 2009


Contest?
posted by Eideteker at 4:39 PM on January 1, 2009


My odds are zero. Your odds are apparently 8 times what Matt said.
posted by Plutor at 4:42 PM on January 1, 2009


Wait, December?

Oh, holy crap, December happened. Which means I need to increment the last digit of the date field when writing checks. Thanks for the heads-up!
posted by Eideteker at 4:42 PM on January 1, 2009 [1 favorite]


Unless cortex wins I'm calling shenanigans and demanding an investigation by a full committee.
posted by Kattullus at 4:48 PM on January 1, 2009


All depends on if jessamyn and cortex check their paypal account before tomorrow.

Oh, or 0%. I made 7 posts in December. Even the best one wasn't as good many of the other posts I've seen go by.
posted by cjorgensen at 4:49 PM on January 1, 2009


zero. Is zero an odd?
posted by jessamyn (staff) at 4:56 PM on January 1, 2009


I want to be bitter about my Dory Previn post getting no love but everyone else was clearly in it to win it. I was blown away by the quality of some of the posts in December.
posted by The Whelk at 4:58 PM on January 1, 2009


Why do you think I am dating a mod?! I really want an iPod. Other than that, it's a helluva lotta trouble.
posted by not_on_display at 4:59 PM on January 1, 2009



Why do you think I am dating a mod?!


Cortex loves me. Bitch.
posted by The Whelk at 5:10 PM on January 1, 2009


Has the internet changed? It seems like it used to be easy to make a great post and now it just seems so much harder. It seems to me like there are fewer new creative and funky sites exploiting the new medium and more manufactured stuff like viral videos, etc. that rely on sites like MeFi to spread the word for them. People were complaining in another thread about what a bad year 2008 was, well, for MeFi it was pretty lackluster, but that isn't MeFi's fault it seems so much as the internet's. We are just a reflection of the tasty tidbits of the internet, and this year they seemed fewer and less tasty than usual. It's a downer opinion, sorry, but I am feeling it. I miss the individual creativity of many of the pages put up around the time MeFi was just getting started. They lacked the professionalism of many we find today, but they were fun, and the good ones were such bright spots in the sea of people posting their list of favorites as their website.
posted by caddis at 5:10 PM on January 1, 2009


Oh please, my post was the best.
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 5:13 PM on January 1, 2009


I don't know if I agree with you, caddis. The internet has changed, yes, but it's just as full of awesome as it ever was. Not that it's always easy to make a good post. Sometimes I come across tons of stuff in an hour of browsing and sometimes there's nothing good anywhere. A lot of wonderful links came my way via this joint.
posted by Kattullus at 5:17 PM on January 1, 2009


and this year they seemed fewer and less tasty than usual.

No, there's just more crap that's easily accessible, otherwise there's an astonishing amount of interesting pages, podcasts, blogs, and videos on the web and it's growing every goddamn day.

Chill out and drink your rum, grandpa.
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 5:18 PM on January 1, 2009


So screw the odds, what post do you think is gonna win? We had some good ones.
posted by dead cousin ted at 5:23 PM on January 1, 2009


Is zero an odd?

Consensus seems to be that it's an even.
posted by penduluum at 5:23 PM on January 1, 2009


I suck at math but I thought that the concept of odds really didn't mean much in a qualitative contest that is not based on chance. If you made a post in December, then your odds of winning the contest would be 1 in [total posts made in December] only if the contest were a random drawing for the prize - but it isn't. Instead it depends on any number of non-quantifiable factors having to do with the arcane tastes and impenetrable wisdom of the mod elite.

But at the same time, I know you can get "odds" on just about anything, even things like the Oscars, which are similar. But in that case "odds" must just mean how many bets a bookmaker can stack up against how many other bets - right? So someone needs to give odds in that case - they don't exist independently as just a function of having a set of stuff that can be numbered and a set number of final selections, but come about as a result of having people willing to make a bet on a specific outcome and having some means of determining the likelihood of that outcome that's only partially numeric.

I guess the question is actually "do you think your post is a strong contender?"
posted by Miko at 5:27 PM on January 1, 2009


Why do you think I am dating a mod?!

Cause you're not dating me. If you were, you'd be dating a rocker.

*rumbles on beach*
posted by jonmc at 5:38 PM on January 1, 2009 [2 favorites]


I would like to point out that my decision to not make a post in December should be considered, as I would've likely made a craptacular post that required double top-secret deletion. So, by saving the mods that work, I think I made a good non-post.

More seriously, I'm wondering about the overall data from December as opposed to other months - did we have more posts than the usual monthly average? More or less deletions? And so forth.
posted by never used baby shoes at 5:40 PM on January 1, 2009


As a previous winner of a best post competition, I can only say that the poor bastard who wins is in for a whole lot of "WTF??? Why does [username] have a gold star next to his/her username" questions." It can be fun, watching the in-thread chaos that each comment you make creates, but it gets tiring after a while. To the winner, I offer this advice; write an FAQ explaining the star in your profile and then respond to each question with "Read the FAQ in my profile."

FWIW, I had a few posts in December which I think are worthy choices as potential winners (this one is the one I'm most proud of) but I know I won't win because I wasn't willing to go to the same extremes as last time.
posted by Effigy2000 at 5:53 PM on January 1, 2009


Contest?

Indeed. There was a contest?
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 6:27 PM on January 1, 2009


If cashman's homeless beatboxer post doesn't win, there's no justice in this world. At the very least, it should take the best of the SLYT category.
posted by PeterMcDermott at 6:45 PM on January 1, 2009 [2 favorites]


Zero, unless December actually started in November. OK, probably still zero.

I coulda been a contender!
posted by Quietgal at 7:49 PM on January 1, 2009


listen... listen to yourself... deep inside you a tiny sound... it's weeping, moaning, pining... for navattran korma and garlic naan... return to her... return... to Manjula
posted by Ambrosia Voyeur at 7:53 PM on January 1, 2009 [1 favorite]


I got a measly 31 faves for mine. On the other hand, I had totally forgotten about the contest. Had I remembered, I would have come up with something more pandering worthy of favoriting.
posted by Fuzzy Skinner at 7:57 PM on January 1, 2009 [1 favorite]


> It seems to me like there are fewer new creative and funky sites exploiting the new medium and more manufactured stuff like viral videos, etc.

Alternately, we're at a point right now where we're collectively kinda' jaded, and it's harder to find new things that impress without shock.

But it's a good call. The first viral sites were viral without the metanalysis of their viralness and attempts to capitalize on it -- they were put up by people who liked what they were doing and wanted other people to see it, and profit motive wasn't an issue (at the time, server overruns from getting Slashdotted would more than consume whatever you could have earned on web ads). Now it's an industry worth millions of dollars, with its own experts, professional fora, and career tracks.

Amateurs putting up their own stuff can't have both the creative self-awareness necessary to do good, interesting art and lack the self-conscious hope that it gets a million views on YouTube and a writeup in the print media. Anybody discovering something sufficiently detached from the collective consciousness is going to ask, first, what it's intended to advertise.

There's still an awful lot out there worth digging for, but they probably won't be like Hampsterdance, Mahir, the Numa Numa guy, and so on, because that's already been done.
posted by ardgedee at 7:57 PM on January 1, 2009 [1 favorite]


I didn't win Powerball last night, so... baby needs a new pair of shoes! Let it all ride, baby!
posted by Blazecock Pileon at 8:01 PM on January 1, 2009


Can't lose if you don't play....
posted by Floydd at 8:12 PM on January 1, 2009


listen... listen to yourself... deep inside you a tiny sound... it's weeping, moaning, pining... for navattran korma and garlic naan... return to her... return... to Manjula
posted by Ambrosia Voyeur


wow, that is some good weed.
posted by nola at 8:44 PM on January 1, 2009


Let's just say my odd have "A Hazy Shade of Winter" by the Bangles on its soundtrack.
posted by GuyZero at 8:45 PM on January 1, 2009


No, seriously...contest?
posted by kittens for breakfast at 9:25 PM on January 1, 2009


I am proud to have made a niche post that appeals only to hard-core nerds and science fetishists. The rest of you, who will no doubt have "voted with your feet" for the pop culture Cheez Whiz post-of-the-moment, can kindly go hang.
posted by ikkyu2 at 9:35 PM on January 1, 2009 [2 favorites]


Hard-core nerds love Cheez Whiz.
posted by Johnny Porno at 9:45 PM on January 1, 2009


It pays to lurk in MeTa.
posted by Fuzzy Skinner at 9:46 PM on January 1, 2009


MetaFilter: pop culture Cheez Whiz post-of-the-moment
posted by netbros at 10:33 PM on January 1, 2009


My odds would be better if you lot of bastards weren't all against me!

Putting bugs in my food I can tell I'll get the lot of you boil you to make soap bastards
posted by klangklangston at 10:34 PM on January 1, 2009


I know I'm going to win! I know it!

...Wait.. Invisible posts count, right?
posted by Ms. Saint at 10:55 PM on January 1, 2009


I like my posts and wouldn't need validation for them. I'm already a Winner.
posted by Blazecock Pileon at 11:06 PM on January 1, 2009 [2 favorites]


If I don't win outright I am going to complain to the Secretary of State and demand that they review all 3 million votes for double counting, then call them dog fuckers for not overturning the recount process... Oh wait, wrong contest, damn and I thought I had a path to winning it
posted by edgeways at 11:07 PM on January 1, 2009


Do you know, I was planning to make my very first post in ... what, I've been reading this site since 2000 or 2001, so that makes it about a million years, right? ... anyway, I was planning to make my very first post last month. Something that would really hit a home run, flabbergast and amaze everyone. Something so brilliant that none of you could possibly resist adoring and favorite-ing and also prize-awarding.

But the inspiration, it never came. So I guess I'll just have to wait until next year.
posted by brina at 12:20 AM on January 2, 2009


Oh, brina, we must be soul twins. I've been wanting to make a post and I have something in mind but December was not the time for it. I did post something (it got deleted as a double) but I feel that I've popped my cherry anyway so anything from now on couldn't possibly be as traumatic. 2009 is going to be excellent for us! Who cares if we get neither a star or an iPod?
posted by h00py at 1:37 AM on January 2, 2009


zero. Is zero an odd?

Well I'M a zero and I'm certainly odd!

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAH


*Sniff*
posted by Catfry at 2:31 AM on January 2, 2009 [1 favorite]


These are good Odds ... (really)

And they've been getting better in the more than twenty years I've known about them.
posted by woodblock100 at 2:39 AM on January 2, 2009


Do posts on the secret elite metafilter site count in this contest?
posted by qvantamon at 3:39 AM on January 2, 2009


Manjula.
posted by goodnewsfortheinsane at 4:43 AM on January 2, 2009


Hall & Oates don't fail me now!
posted by ND¢ at 5:00 AM on January 2, 2009


By which I mean, when you have your little confab and start discussing which posts are the best and which ones deserve awards and whatnot, there is a little something I would like you to bear in mind.

ND¢ likes to party.
posted by ND¢ at 6:35 AM on January 2, 2009


You see what I'm saying?

You feel me?

PAR-TAY.

Little cone shaped hats, noisemakers, cake. The whole thing.

I like it.

I think you see where I am going with this.
posted by ND¢ at 6:38 AM on January 2, 2009


My odds of winning? Zero. My odds on finding where the winner lives and "encouraging" them to "donate" their prizes to me?

Better than average.
posted by quin at 7:26 AM on January 2, 2009


quin I thought by now you had learned that threats get you nowhere.
posted by Fuzzy Skinner at 7:38 AM on January 2, 2009


Everyone who didn't notice the best post wins a best post.
posted by ersatz at 8:12 AM on January 2, 2009


They say one definition of insanity is trying the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

I say that a better way of spotting it is to look for someone wearing a tutu, hip-waders, and a tiara while singing Danke Schön and shooting a fire-extinguisher people on the subway.

At least that's what they said on review of the video-taped evidence...

But then, I've said too much.

Besides there was no threat here, I obviously meant that they would be "encouraged" by seeing my powerfully sad puppy-dog face, and would feel this overwhelming urge give the prize up to someone clearly not as able as them at making quality posts.

Also, I'm learning to tear up on command, so I've got that in my toolkit as well.

posted by quin at 8:12 AM on January 2, 2009 [1 favorite]


The only thing I've ever won was being voted "most surreal" in high school. There was a costume contest and I managed to affix a fried egg to my shirt with a ziploc bag and a hemostat.

My prize was a pint of Ben and Jerry's ice cream. I proudly took it to the dining hall where I found that the senior class had pulled a prank replacing all of the silverware with chopsticks. Luckily, one of my friends had a spoon in her bag - though why, I have no idea.

The whole thing was totally surreal.

As for the post contest, my odds are way slimmer.
posted by grapefruitmoon at 8:19 AM on January 2, 2009 [1 favorite]


How about nada? My only post this month was a stinker. Two comments - one a derail I think (did Neal Stephenson really mention the Kit-Kat Club in a trilogy?) and no favorites - what a bomb!
posted by tellurian at 8:36 AM on January 2, 2009


December's historically the slowest month here, with the fewest posts & comments. I don't think it's that we're jaded, it's just that we're preoccupied with the holidays.
posted by Pronoiac at 8:54 AM on January 2, 2009


I think it may be a bit harder to make a good FPP post than in the past, since some of the really cool stuff out there has been around for a while. And been linked here already.
posted by cjorgensen at 9:33 AM on January 2, 2009


Yeah. And all the good books have been published already, and all the good music has already been made.
posted by Miko at 9:38 AM on January 2, 2009 [1 favorite]


If cashman's homeless beatboxer post doesn't win, there's no justice in this world.

Aww, thank you.
posted by cashman at 10:01 AM on January 2, 2009


My odds are higher than before I posted this comment.
posted by parudox at 10:21 AM on January 2, 2009


You have already lost the game!
posted by Sailormom at 12:29 PM on January 2, 2009


Also, Neil Gaiman mentioned my one and only post in December.
posted by Sailormom at 12:31 PM on January 2, 2009


The only way to win is not to post.
posted by Faint of Butt at 4:59 PM on January 2, 2009


I win!
posted by maxwelton at 7:40 PM on January 2, 2009


The podcast should be coming out on Monday and we'll announce the winners then, fyi.
posted by jessamyn (staff) at 7:42 PM on January 2, 2009


The cabal hates me. They never send me invitations. They pretend to forget my name. They laugh at my red shoes and sneer at my brownies. I will never win anything while the present cabal is in power, so I'm holding a secret meeting to overthrow the secret cabal. You have to guess whether or not you are invited and where the meeting is being held. Just make sure you guess right, because when the New and Improved (Now with more gravy!) cabal is in power we will be merciless.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 7:59 PM on January 2, 2009


Thanks for the invite; I guess this is my RSVP, I'll be there!!
posted by jessamyn (staff) at 8:23 PM on January 2, 2009


Mmm. I always enjoy gravy with my cabals.

I'll bring the longboat.
posted by grapefruitmoon at 8:54 PM on January 2, 2009


(puts down oars, torches, lute and book of sagas)

No.
posted by The Whelk at 10:24 PM on January 2, 2009


No? What do you mean "No?" Are you denying me access to the longboat? I think you forget that I INVENTED THE LONGBOAT.

bitches.
posted by grapefruitmoon at 5:00 AM on January 3, 2009


Matt sank the longboat. :(
posted by caddis at 5:18 AM on January 3, 2009


What are your odds of winning December's "best post" contest?

See, this kind of thing is exactly what a procrastinator like myself fears. If I hadn't posted and FPP in December, I could tell myself I could potentially have won and thought about that wonderful potential I have that I just have to tap, etc. But I did post three FPPs in December, and though I put a good level of effort in them they were run-of-the-mill. So now I'll be forced to face the fact that I am living up to my potential and it's nothing special.

But you winners enjoy your iPods. Don't mind me. Really.
posted by orange swan at 7:51 AM on January 4, 2009


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