Here comes number 4000

February 28, 2001 7:57 AM

This afternoon or evening, the member with user number 4000 will join MetaFilter. Will they win anything? Should they win anything? Suggestions? (What about one free double post?)
posted by iceberg273 to MetaFilter-related at 7:57 AM (11 comments total)

(grumble, grumble...good prediction wasted...grumble, grumble...where's my prize?...grumble grumble...)
posted by Avogadro at 8:12 AM on February 28, 2001

Wow, go Avogadro!

I think rewarding someone for accidentally triggering an arbitrary state is pretty pointless, especially since user #4000 is more likely to either be a troll or not stick around that to become a valuable contributor. I say give Avogadro the prize (and anyone else who can predict the date and time (within 24 hours or so) of a particular user number 2000 users away)!
posted by daveadams at 8:59 AM on February 28, 2001

Avogadro: good prediction wasted

But very, very close.

I was curious about the growth of Mefi so I made up a little graph of the rate at which members are joining. It looks like the rate has increased since the election hoopla, but I'm not sure it's gone exponential like number of posts: it's just increased to a new stable rate from the old stable rate. If the current 6.2 days for 100 users to join rate is correct (and it might not be, or it night change), then #5000 will be expected on or around the 2nd of May.

'Course maybe we should just ask Avogadro, since he seems to have the gift of future prognostication (with about a one day or so standard error). daveadams: what do you give a man who has a gift for future prognostication? He'll know what's coming.
posted by iceberg273 at 9:11 AM on February 28, 2001

You give him/her a Dr. Manhattan action figure. He/she may know it's coming, but at least it has resonance.

Man, Avogadro. That was spooky.
posted by Skot at 9:34 AM on February 28, 2001

You win a Marvel No-Prize!
posted by redfoxtail at 9:47 AM on February 28, 2001

posted by iceberg273 at 10:12 AM on February 28, 2001

I didn't see thatcoming...

*blush*
posted by Avogadro at 10:47 AM on February 28, 2001

iceberg, that's just awesome.
posted by Skot at 11:43 AM on February 28, 2001

Looks like we have a winner.
posted by Neale at 4:59 PM on February 28, 2001

..but not really, cause while that person does have uid 4000, he/she is not actually the 4000th user. Matt said himself that a large number of sub-100 users were just test accounts, and the front page of mefi right now says 3951 (or something) users and counting. Maybe we should reward user 4049, then..
posted by zempf at 12:01 PM on March 2, 2001

Well, 5000 has now been surpassed (not in actual users though)
posted by Octaviuz at 11:05 AM on March 29, 2001