Iowa! December 30, 2007 12:04 PM   Subscribe

Prognosticate for me, Mefites: what are your best guesses for the results of the Iowa Caucus?

Easy format: for the Republicans and Democrats, predict he order, first to last, that the candidates will come in.

Remember that the Democratic Party only public releases results after voters for "unviable" candidates make a second choice (or chose "Uncommitted"), and state delegates are assigned in an electoral-college like system that gives more weight to smaller, rural districts.

So for the Dems, you're picking the final results in percentages of delegates won.

Harder format: Give percentages or a range of percentages for each candidate.

Bonus: tell us where you'll be watching the returns, and whether you expect any surpises out of Iowa.
posted by orthogonality to MetaFilter-Related at 12:04 PM (61 comments total)

Iowa is a freakin' circus. Since it is a caucus and not a primary there is a whole lot of shuffling around of what could be just a straight vote.

Oh ya, you could make a prediction, but between the train wreck of a system, caucusing, and a three way tie in the polls I am too chicken shit to venture a guess.
posted by munchingzombie at 12:15 PM on December 30, 2007


And so the circus performance begins.

Say, any word on whether the actual election is going to represent the people's choice or the choice of the powers that be? To wit, will real polling machines be used this time, or are you going with the corrupt systems?
posted by five fresh fish at 12:19 PM on December 30, 2007


This is here because...? It doesn't fit in AskMe? It really isn't Mefi-related either.

Meh.

signed,
self-confessed politics junkie.
posted by dash_slot- at 12:19 PM on December 30, 2007


Dems:

1. Gordon Schumway
2. Haywood Jablome
3. Minnie Pearl

GOP:

1. Kodos
2. the bass player from Ugly Kid Joe
3. RuPaul
posted by item at 12:28 PM on December 30, 2007 [1 favorite]


Don't blame me, I voted for Kang.
posted by BitterOldPunk at 12:35 PM on December 30, 2007


democrats - kim phuc

republicans - paris hilton
posted by pyramid termite at 12:47 PM on December 30, 2007 [2 favorites]


Repub: Meh
Dem: Pfft
posted by The Deej at 12:50 PM on December 30, 2007 [1 favorite]


well, ok, i predict hillary clinton for the democrats and mike huckabee for the republicans

yes, it sucks
posted by pyramid termite at 12:50 PM on December 30, 2007


I'm as interested in this topic as anyone, but until there's officially a chatfilter.metafilter.com, it probably belongs at the BBQ.
posted by gerryblog at 12:59 PM on December 30, 2007


it probably belongs at the BBQ.

Nah, it's not that BB of a Q.
posted by The Deej at 1:09 PM on December 30, 2007


Prince Kropotkin will return from the dead and convince an overwhelming majority of Iowans that so-called "democratic" politics is just a sham allowing the prisoners to choose their own warder from among a few interchangeable candidates; they will withdraw from the USA and reconstitute Iowa as a network of free communes. Then I'll move there.
posted by languagehat at 1:14 PM on December 30, 2007 [4 favorites]


Free Iowa!
posted by monju_bosatsu at 1:16 PM on December 30, 2007


Huckabee is a Sith Lord.
posted by homunculus at 1:16 PM on December 30, 2007


He campaigned in order to facilitate the takeover by Prince Kropotkin, and the stunning result:
Dem - languagehat
Rep- languagehat
posted by Cranberry at 1:17 PM on December 30, 2007 [2 favorites]


Republicans: a conservative
Democrats: a conservative
posted by L. Fitzgerald Sjoberg at 1:20 PM on December 30, 2007 [8 favorites]


Republicans: An asshole
Democrats: An asshole

It's not like there are many surprises in American politics anymore.
posted by cmonkey at 1:21 PM on December 30, 2007 [1 favorite]


Most likely outcome:
Good weather:
Huckabee and Clinton.
Bad weather:
Edwards and Huckabee

The real impact of Iowa will be the candidates who do so badly that they drop out and who their supporters then back.
posted by Jahaza at 1:23 PM on December 30, 2007



Dems:

1. Edwards
2. Obama
3. Clinton

GOP:

1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. McCain
posted by wfrgms at 1:29 PM on December 30, 2007


Winner: Evil Hypocrites
Loser: America

It's great how I can be right so often.

Side prediction: Ron Paul does much better than you think he will.
posted by TheOnlyCoolTim at 1:38 PM on December 30, 2007


It'll be Clinton v. Giuliani, simply because Fate likes to fuck around with America and those are the two worst possibilities.

If a spell of Utopian splendor settles upon the country, it'll be Kucinich v. Paul. And mathowie will be the VP candidate for one of 'em, jessamyn the other.
posted by WCityMike at 1:45 PM on December 30, 2007


Edwards and Obama have lower dedication than Clinton, and Edwards has slightly higher 2nd choice appeal.

I'm betting:

1. Clinton
2. Edwards
3. Obama

I'm particularly disappointed by this, since it reverses my personal preferences.

For the Republicans, there's some weird stuff going on with Huckabee's number's so I'm projecting a Romney win.

1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. McCain
posted by anotherpanacea at 1:48 PM on December 30, 2007


If a spell of Utopian splendor settles upon the country, it'll be Kucinich v. Paul. And mathowie will be the VP candidate for one of 'em, jessamyn the other.

Cortex for drug czar.
posted by TheOnlyCoolTim at 1:55 PM on December 30, 2007


1) Clinton with 35%
2) Edwards with 33%
3) Obama with 29%

1) Romney with 29%
2) Huckabee with 28%
3) McCain with 27%
4) Giuliani won't break 10%
posted by Pants! at 2:05 PM on December 30, 2007


Meatbomb for drug czar.
posted by GrammarMoses at 2:09 PM on December 30, 2007 [2 favorites]


Does this really belong in MetaTalk?
posted by Justinian at 2:24 PM on December 30, 2007


Does this really belong in MetaTalk?

I don't know. Do you?
posted by loquacious at 2:33 PM on December 30, 2007


1) Edwards with 35%
2) Obama with 33%
3) Clinton with 29%

Anything short of this and Clinton locks up the nomination early, and we'll be subjected to a summer of hearing ALL of the lurid details of Bill Clinton's dalliances (tacitly approved by Hillary) from 2000-2008. And then, I will buy a shiny new pistol and put a bullet in my brain.
posted by psmealey at 2:37 PM on December 30, 2007 [1 favorite]


I don't know. Do you?

Know? Maybe not, but I have an opinion.

There are a bunch of things I wouldn't mind knowing the average Mefite's opinion of. I'm sure that's true of a lot of other Mefites. If we all started posting them to Metatalk it would quickly turn into a swamp of noise.

I thought Metatalk was for things that had to do specifically with Metafilter, not for things that might be of interest to people on Metafilter.
posted by Justinian at 2:42 PM on December 30, 2007 [1 favorite]


I'd like it to be anyone but Clinton vs anyone but Huckabee, but I get the feeling I'll be sorely disappointed.
posted by danb at 2:43 PM on December 30, 2007


What the hell is this doing here?

Carry on.
posted by CitrusFreak12 at 2:44 PM on December 30, 2007


Edwards and Huckabee
posted by matteo at 2:49 PM on December 30, 2007


What the hell is this doing here?

I think this is a piloting of the open thread concept which was brought up in MeTa a couple of weeks ago. I can see what the objection is, but having one of these once per week or so probably wouldn't be the worst thing in the history of the blue or the gray or the green...

or would it?
posted by psmealey at 2:50 PM on December 30, 2007


Does this really belong in MetaTalk?

No.
posted by timeistight at 3:04 PM on December 30, 2007 [1 favorite]


I don't know much about American politics. I couldn't tell you where Iowa is. I couldn't tell you what a caucus is. But as I was drinking my evening tea and eating a wonderful port-cheddar, I was playing with my new internet radio and by chance tuned into Talk of the Nation on National Public Radio. They had an interview going with senator Maurice Robert Gravel. He sounded like a nice guy. The type of person you'd like to have a cup of tea with. I would respectfully suggest you make him your next president, and these the results of the caucus:

Democrats: Maurice Robert Gravel (100%)

Republicans: -
posted by klue at 3:06 PM on December 30, 2007 [2 favorites]


Chatfilter. Do not want.
posted by kirkaracha at 3:19 PM on December 30, 2007 [1 favorite]


I don't think Iowa means a fucking thing on the (D) side. Three people are going to come out of there essentially tied. As long as obama and edwards don't crater and hillary doesn't get 40%, it's a three way tie.

Please Barack don't 'scream' when you come in third place and you can still take this thing.
posted by empath at 3:23 PM on December 30, 2007


In a surprise win, Ron Paul will win both the Democratic and Republican Primaries unanimously. Also, Iowa caucusers will vote to award all the other states' delegates as well, except Michigan and Florida, who have been stripped of theirs. Bloomberg will run an unsuccessful second party campaign in the national election. The Ron Paul REVOLUTION will edge out a victory over Bloomberg and a powerful "draft Arthur Branch" write-in campaign.
posted by gauchodaspampas at 3:32 PM on December 30, 2007


As long as obama and edwards don't crater and hillary doesn't get 40%, it's a three way tie.

Agreed. South Carolina is the real test.

Although, I will say there's a very real possibility that Hillary craters in Iowa, due to the weird caucus format. There will be three groups of people in each caucus center, and two of them will tell Hillary's camp that she's unelectable in the general election (and IMO, truthfully unelectable). Because of the format, it's very easy to splinter her camp after the first voting phase.
posted by Cool Papa Bell at 3:33 PM on December 30, 2007


I'm betting:

1. Clinton
2. Edwards
3. Obama

I'm particularly disappointed by this, since it reverses my personal preferences.


Hey, one outta three ain't bad.
posted by tepidmonkey at 3:35 PM on December 30, 2007


Hey, one outta three ain't bad.

I can't parse this. Could you elaborate?
posted by anotherpanacea at 3:47 PM on December 30, 2007


anotherpanacea: If you reverse the order of those three, Edwards is still in the #2 spot.
posted by Ryvar at 3:57 PM on December 30, 2007


I can't parse this. Could you elaborate?

Edwards is #2 either way.
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 3:58 PM on December 30, 2007


Dammit.
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 3:59 PM on December 30, 2007


Due to the format, I would want to be Edwards. He's the almost universal second-choice; the best position to be in in a close three-way race.

I think Edwards pulls it out. Followed by Obama. Hillary trounced.
posted by Benny Andajetz at 4:05 PM on December 30, 2007


Oh, and I don't care who wins the Republican side.

And, Virginia Tech beats Kansas. :)
posted by Benny Andajetz at 4:14 PM on December 30, 2007


Edwards 35%
Clinton 29%
Obama 19%
Biden/Richardson 12%
posted by logicpunk at 4:37 PM on December 30, 2007


Pretty much everyone involved will claim a victory of some kind.
posted by box at 4:37 PM on December 30, 2007


No way VT beats Kansas. Have you seen the KU coach? He looks like he's carrying Huckabee's weight loss and yet ate Kucinich for lunch.
As for the predicted finish, I think Hillary and Huckabee win by less than 3%. Also, Ron Paul finishes fourth and ends McCain's campaign.
posted by dw at 4:38 PM on December 30, 2007


WHAT.
THE.
FUCK.
ORTHOGONALITY?
posted by Kwantsar at 4:58 PM on December 30, 2007 [1 favorite]


Yeah, my vote is definitely going to the WHAT. THE. FUCK. ORTHOGONALITY. camp.
posted by tkolar at 5:05 PM on December 30, 2007 [1 favorite]


I think this is a piloting of the open thread concept which was brought up in MeTa a couple of weeks ago. I can see what the objection is, but having one of these once per week or so probably wouldn't be the worst thing in the history of the blue or the gray or the green...

If that were the case you would expect mathowie, jessamyn, or cortex to have posted it.

Hmmm. All lowercase syndrome: mark of an admin?
posted by Justinian at 5:07 PM on December 30, 2007 [1 favorite]


Thanks to everyone who gave serious predictions, and I'd like to see some more. I suppose I could have dressed this up as a FPP, but come, for politcal junkies this is the NCAA playoffs and teh World Series all rolled into one.

My guesses:
Dem: Obama, Clinton, Edwards, but I don't rule out a surprising Edwards win. Dribs and unviable drabs for the rest of the field, give Iowa's process.

I guess I'm saying, I think Clinton doesn't come in first, even though I suspect Richardson is a stalking-horse who tries to throw his support her way where he's "unviable".

Rep: Huckabee, (even though the latest polls give Romney the edge), Romney, McCain, Paul ahead of Thompson (yeah, it's a guess, but Paul's supporters are hyped while Thompson's campaign is Weekend at Bernie's with Thompson in the starring role), and Giuliani cratering in last place.
posted by orthogonality at 5:13 PM on December 30, 2007


Yeah, because when I think "appropriate place for a discussion by political junkies" the first thing I think of is MetaTalk.
posted by tkolar at 5:16 PM on December 30, 2007 [1 favorite]


So anyway, does anyone have any opinions on the current NHL season? Or maybe some nice recipes for pumpkin pie?
posted by Justinian at 5:23 PM on December 30, 2007


ortho: even though I suspect Richardson is a stalking-horse who tries to throw his support her way where he's "unviable".

Think Kucinich'll do the same with Edwards a la 2004?
posted by jtron at 5:28 PM on December 30, 2007


quonsar will win big, and madamjujujive will be his veep. after winning in the general election and ending the iraq war, q will tire of office and madam will become our first female president. she will dominate both the us and the world with her intense charm. these will be glorious and wonderful times. we will pass a constitutional amendment allowing her to rule over us for life, and we will be happy under her reign.
posted by caddis at 5:29 PM on December 30, 2007 [1 favorite]


Prognosticate for me, Mefites: what are your best guesses for the results of the FA Cup 3rd Round?

Easy format: for each tie, predict the order, first to last, that the teams will come in.

Harder format: Predict the scores and scorers for each game.

Bonus: tell us where you'll be watching the games, and whether you expect any surpises out of Luton.
posted by nowonmai at 5:36 PM on December 30, 2007 [1 favorite]


IOKIYAR/D
posted by dash_slot- at 5:47 PM on December 30, 2007


This should not still be here.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 6:16 PM on December 30, 2007 [2 favorites]


To wit, will real polling machines be used this time, or are you going with the corrupt systems?

See, I like these complaints more when they reflect some actual knowledge of what a caucus is, and how it's different from an election.
posted by smackfu at 6:18 PM on December 30, 2007 [1 favorite]


This is really not a MeTa post of any stripe, I'm not sure what it's doing here.
posted by jessamyn (staff) at 6:22 PM on December 30, 2007 [5 favorites]


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