And the winner is...

November 5, 2008 9:17 PM

And the winner of the 2008 MetaFilter Election Prediction Contest is...

Iridic!

Missouri and North Carolina haven't been certified yet, so I'll hold off on awarding the prize until they are. But if they fall in the directions currently projected (Missouri to McCain, North Carolina to Obama), Iridic was one of three participants (the others being rbellon and Dr. Zira) to guess all ten states correctly, and his popular vote guess was the closest of the three (he predicted that Obama would win the popular vote by 5.1%, and according to CNN, Obama is currently believed to have won by 6.2%).

So congratulations, Iridic, and be sure to let us know what charity you'd like the prize money donated to.

posted by gsteff to MetaFilter-Related at 9:17 PM (32 comments total)

Here's the data I'm using, in case anyone else wants to study it (the columns are the row number, username, state prediction score (higher is better), popular vote prediction score (lower is better), state prediction and popular vote prediction (Obama - McCain)).

1    Iridic                                   10    1.1   oooomooooo 5.1
2    rbellon                                  10    2.1   oooomooooo 4.1
3    Dr. Zira                                 10    6.0   oooomooooo 12.2
4    Lemurrhea                                9     0.1   oooomoomoo 6.3
5    stavrogin                                9     0.2   oooomoomoo 6.4
6    starzero                                 9     0.2   oomomooooo 6.4
7    dirtdirt                                 9     0.8   mooomooooo 7.0
8    Hello, Revelers! I am Captain Lavender!  9     0.9   oomomooooo 7.1
9    EarBucket                                9     1.0   oooooooooo 5.2
10   Weebot                                   9     1.2   oooomoomoo 5.0
11   Navelgazer                               9     1.4   oooomoomoo 7.6
12   burnmp3s                                 9     2.1   oomomooooo 4.1
13   empath                                   9     2.3   oomomooooo 3.9
14   schyler523                               9     2.8   oooooooooo 9.0
15   Slarty Bartfast                          9     2.9   oooooooooo 9.1
16   Plutor                                   9     3.1   oooomoomoo 3.1
17   The Light Fantastic                      9     3.2   oooooooooo 3.0
18   Sys Rq                                   9     3.8   oooomomooo 10.0
19   Mach5                                    9     4.3   oomomooooo 1.9
20   qvantamon                                9     5.8   oooooooooo 12.0
21   JaredSeth                                9     6.2   oooooooooo 0.0
22   Neiltupper                               9     6.8   oooooooooo 13.0
23   genghis                                  9     7.3   oooooooooo 13.5
24   Meatbomb                                 9     18.3  oooooooooo 24.5
25   amyms                                    9     18.4  oooooooooo 24.6
26   Item                                     8     0.4   ommomooooo 6.6
27   halcyon_daze                             8     0.5   ommomooooo 6.7
28   Dreamghost                               8     0.7   oomooooooo 6.9
29   Juffo-Wup                                8     0.7   oomomoomoo 5.5
30   DreamerFi                                8     0.7   oomooooooo 5.5
31   R. Mutt                                  8     0.89  oomomoomoo 5.31
32   EndsOfInvention                          8     1.3   ooooooomoo 7.5
33   internet!Hannah                          8     1.4   oomomoomoo 7.6
34   suedehead                                8     1.7   oomomoomoo 4.5
35   adamrice                                 8     1.7   ommomooooo 4.5
36   ignignokt                                8     1.8   ommomooooo 8.0
37   Benny Andajetz                           8     2.1   oomomoomoo 4.1
38   lunasol                                  8     2.1   ommomooooo 4.1
39   DevilsAdvocate                           8     2.2   oomomooomo 4.0
40   jacalata                                 8     2.5   mmoomooooo 8.7
41   suncoursing                              8     2.9   oomomoomoo 9.1
42   jaimev                                   8     2.95  oomomoomoo 3.25
43   Falconetti                               8     3.1   omoomoomoo 3.1
44   Ryvar                                    8     3.6   omoomoomoo 2.6
45   DU                                       8     3.8   oomomoomoo 10.0
46   kyleg                                    8     4.1   oomomoomoo 2.1
47   maryh                                    8     4.9   ooooooomoo 11.1
48   crossoverman                             8     7.8   oomomoooom 14.0
49   sergeant sandwich                        7     0.0   mmmomooooo 6.2
50   tula                                     7     0.1   oomomooomm 6.3
51   wearyaswater                             7     0.4   ommomoomoo 5.8
52   GhostintheMachine                        7     0.5   oomoomoooo 5.7
53   penduluum                                7     0.7   oomommomoo 5.5
54   Quidam                                   7     1.4   oomommomoo 4.8
55   brina                                    7     1.5   oomoooomoo 4.7
56   kittens for breakfast                    7     1.8   omoommomoo 4.4
57   Doublewhiskeycokenoice                   7     1.8   omooooomoo 8.0
58   Rock Steady                              7     1.9   oooommmomo 4.3
59   bjgeiger                                 7     2.0   moooomoooo 4.2
60   Nattie                                   7     2.2   ommomoomoo 4.0
61   Karlos the Jackal                        7     2.5   oomommomooo 3.7
62   Marisa Stole the Precious Thing          7     2.6   omoommomoo 3.6
63   Mister_A                                 7     2.9   oomommomoo 3.3
64   ThePinkSuperhero                         7     3.0   oooommomom 3.2
65   speicus                                  7     3.1   ommomoomoo 3.1
66   afu                                      7     3.4   oomomomomo 2.8
67   Vindaloo                                 7     3.4   omoomommoo 2.8
68   aheckler                                 7     3.7   omoomommoo 2.5
69   scody                                    7     3.9   oomommomoo 2.3
70   carsonb                                  7     4.0   oomommomoo 2.2
71   greta simone                             7     4.2   ommmmooooo 2.0
72   blue mustard                             7     4.2   oomomoommo 2.0
73   so_necessary                             7     4.2   oomommoomo 2.0
74   Harald74                                 7     4.4   omoommomoo 1.8
75   orrnyereg                                7     4.5   ommomoomoo 1.7
76   drjimmy11                                7     4.6   oomoooomoo 10.8
77   Kwine                                    7     4.7   ommomooomo 1.5
78   clockworkjoe                             7     4.9   ommomoooom 1.3
79   beagle                                   7     5.3   ommomoomoo 0.9
80   Stylus Happenstance                      7     5.4   oomomoommo 0.8
81   chrisamiller                             6     0.85  ommomommoo 5.35
82   Solon and Thanks                         6     1.4   oommmmomoo 7.6
83   amarynth                                 6     2.2   oomommommo 4.0
84   Gyan                                     6     2.2   ommooooomo 4.0
85   Kirth Gerson                             6     2.24  oomoomomoo 8.44
86   mattbucher                               6     2.45  omoomomomm 3.75
87   palmcorder_yajna                         6     3.1   mmoomoommo 3.1
88   phrontist                                6     3.2   oomoomoomo 3.0
89   I Foody                                  6     3.2   ommommomoo 3.0
90   evinrude                                 6     3.4   oomommommo 2.8
91   lunit                                    6     3.4   ommomommoo 2.8
92   readery                                  6     3.5   ommomoomom 2.7
93   solipsophistocracy                       6     3.5   ommommooom 2.7
94   gimonca                                  6     3.7   ommomoommo 2.5
95   darth_tedious                            6     4.1   oomommommo 2.1
96   amicamentis                              6     4.3   omommoomom 1.9
97   fizzix                                   6     5.0   ommommomoo 1.2
98   chimaera                                 6     5.0   oomomoommm 1.2
99   thecaddy                                 6     5.5   oomoommooo 0.7
100  Devils Slide                             6     5.85  ommomoomom 0.35
101  kittyprecious                            6     7.3   ommomoomom -1.1
102  cillit bang                              5     2.3   oomoomomom 3.9
103  Justinian                                5     2.5   ommommommo 3.7
104  smackwich                                5     3.8   ommoomomoo 10.0
105  toxic                                    5     4.1   omoooomomm 10.3
106  spaltavian                               5     4.3   ommomoommm 1.9
107  not_on_display                           5     6.5   mmoommmmoo -0.3
108  ejaned8                                  5     7.5   moomoomomo -1.3
109  JParker                                  5     9.1   ommomoommm -2.9
110  davidmsc                                 5     15.2  mmoommomom -9.0
111  infini                                   5     23.8  mmomooomoo 30.0
112  equalpants                               4     2.3   ommommommm 3.9
113  contessa                                 4     2.9   mmmommomom 3.3
114  sadiehawkinstein                         4     3.7   mmmomoommm 2.5
115  dersins                                  4     5.1   ommommommm 1.1
116  diefladermaus                            4     5.3   ommommommm 0.9
117  hangashore                               4     9.2   ommommommm -3.0
118  ob                                       4     10.7  mmmomoommm -4.5
119  Neale                                    4     12.6  mmmommommo -6.4
120  dw                                       3     3.8   mmmmmmmmoo 2.4
121  gubo                                     3     5.2   mmmommommm 1.0
122  jedicus                                  3     6.45  mmmommommm -0.25

posted by gsteff at 9:20 PM on November 5, 2008

mooooooooo

posted by cortex (staff) at 9:27 PM on November 5, 2008

ommmmmmm
posted by Manhasset at 9:39 PM on November 5, 2008

omnomnomnom
posted by Fiasco da Gama at 9:52 PM on November 5, 2008 [4 favorites]

8th worst! Suck it, you seven people I was less crappy than!
posted by dersins at 9:58 PM on November 5, 2008 [2 favorites]

So if N.C. turns out to have gone to McCain, I win?

Like don't get me wrong, I'm sincerely happy that it was a blowout for Obama, but this is fucking bullshit!
posted by Lemurrhea at 10:21 PM on November 5, 2008

WooHoo! 25th!
posted by amyms at 10:58 PM on November 5, 2008

Huh, I was 17th and my prediction was a joke!
posted by The Light Fantastic at 11:09 PM on November 5, 2008

59th!!!
posted by bjgeiger at 3:09 AM on November 6, 2008

didn't make the list!
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 3:52 AM on November 6, 2008

This shit is going RIGHT in my resume.
posted by dirtdirt at 5:29 AM on November 6, 2008

Yeah, sorry Brandon Blatcher- you didn't include a New Hampshire prediction.
posted by gsteff at 5:33 AM on November 6, 2008

Forgot to play!
posted by Manhasset at 5:33 AM on November 6, 2008

should have proof read!
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 5:56 AM on November 6, 2008

I only set NH to red so I could say this, regardless of the outcome:

WHAT THE FUCK NEW HAMPSHIRE?

(It's just fun to say.)

Also, I like how my cheatily vague pop-vote prediction, "by double digits," was interpreted to mean 10 and not, say, 99. That's how you get into the top twenty, folks!

We're! Number! Eighteen! We're! Number! Eighteen!
posted by Sys Rq at 6:05 AM on November 6, 2008 [1 favorite]

I demand a recount.
posted by Meatbomb at 6:36 AM on November 6, 2008

gsteff: "oooomooooo oooomooooo oooomooooo oooomoomoo oooomoomoo oomomooooo mooomooooo oomomooooo oooooooooo oooomoomoo.."

You know, that's a pretty good recap of the forty-month campaign.
posted by Plutor at 6:56 AM on November 6, 2008

A red NH was pretty unlikely given Shaheen's support in the senatorial race. I definitely think that had a trickle up effect. And you know, despite being a staunch supporter of my home state, I totally agree that it is fun to say.

WHAT.
THE.
FUCK.
NEW HAMPSHIRE?
posted by SpiffyRob at 7:42 AM on November 6, 2008

omnomnomnom

damn that nader fellow.
posted by goodnewsfortheinsane at 7:53 AM on November 6, 2008 [2 favorites]

I knew I was taking a pessimistic tack, but with it all laid out this way...well, *whew*.

Glad to be wrong.
posted by kittyprecious at 8:42 AM on November 6, 2008

Yay! 118th! I've never been so happy to be so wrong about anything in my life!
posted by ob at 10:46 AM on November 6, 2008

In your face, ThePinkSuperhero!
posted by Mister_A at 1:18 PM on November 6, 2008

Number 62 out of 122. Man, it's like graduation day all over again.
posted by Marisa Stole the Precious Thing at 1:22 PM on November 6, 2008

Curse you, Captain Lavender! Curse you! We shall meet again, I promise you!
posted by EarBucket at 2:07 PM on November 6, 2008

Holy crow! I never guess anything right - not the number of jawbreakers in a mason jar, not the winner of Best Documentary (Short Subject), and forget about Gonzaga's path through the March brackets. So I'm extremely surprised and gratified right now. Thank you very much, Gsteff, for making it possible.

As to the donation: I like DevilAdvocate's idea. Please direct the purse to the Adler Planetarium.
posted by Iridic at 6:07 PM on November 6, 2008

121st woohoo! I'm glad I was so wrong.
posted by gubo at 8:48 PM on November 6, 2008

oooomooooo!!!!
posted by geos at 3:08 AM on November 7, 2008

/Totally deserved honorable mention.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 10:52 AM on November 7, 2008

Oh wow, 6th, and I'm not even American :p
posted by starzero at 12:04 PM on November 7, 2008

As long as we're talking about predictions.
posted by EarBucket at 12:16 PM on November 7, 2008

Besides, the shocker at the DNC is going to be that Al Sharpton is going to get the nomination. You read it here first.

Give this man a leg-shaped lamp!

Striking thing from that thread: explicit ticket calls for 2012. Is that an back-in-time endorsement of the Inexperience! argument, or just a presumption that there's no way Edwards or Clinton wouldn't be the nom in 08?

Or, wait, that's mid-04, of course. So maybe I guess the presumption that Kerry would take it in '04 and two-term it with Obama as the next up?
posted by cortex (staff) at 12:25 PM on November 7, 2008

As long as we're talking about predictions.

Nice! Honorary mention to swift!
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 1:57 PM on November 7, 2008