2012 Presidential Prediction Contest Winner

November 12, 2012 11:06 AM

Now that Florida has finished counting votes (always a challenge for us), the 2012 presidential election results are 332 electoral votes for Obama and 206 for Romney -- barring faithless electors. The popular vote is 50.6% Obama, 47.9% Romney and 1.5% other. The Nate Silver Medal for Political Prognostication goes to JKevinKing. J. Kevin was one of 15 people to tie for first in the electoral half of the contest with a perfect prediction. He finished third in the popular vote half, ahead of I am the Walrus and UrineSoakedRube who tied for ninth. The $50 Threadless gift certificate and life-size cardboard Joe Biden are on the way to JKevinKing as soon as I send them. Please keep Joe in the lifestyle to which he has become accustomed.

Special mentions: If Florida had gone to Romney, goodnewsfortheinsane would have gotten the entire contest right on the nose. The Karl Rove award for last place goes to St. Alia of the Bunnies.

The full results table is online. (Tried posting it here, but the formatting was crazier than Dick Morris.)

posted by rcade to MetaFilter-Related at 11:06 AM (26 comments total)

The original post, for those who missed it.

And I'm awarding myself the prestigious Wrong But Quick prize for getting pretty close in the laziest way possible before anybody else did likewise.
posted by cortex (staff) at 11:13 AM on November 12, 2012 [1 favorite]

What exactly is the prize for the Karl Rove award?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 11:14 AM on November 12, 2012 [1 favorite]

EmpressCallipygos: What exactly is the prize for the Karl Rove award?

Karl Rove.
posted by Rock Steady at 11:17 AM on November 12, 2012 [20 favorites]

It's clearly too early to call the Karl Rove prize before all the votes are in, for example California's absentee ballots. This is irresponsible journalism and I demand an explanation
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 11:18 AM on November 12, 2012 [2 favorites]

What exactly is the prize for the Karl Rove award?

Four long years in the political wilderness.
posted by rcade at 11:46 AM on November 12, 2012

Cardboard or 3-D?
posted by St. Alia of the Bunnies at 12:01 PM on November 12, 2012 [1 favorite]

rcade: "Four long years in the political wilderness."

Preferably 16.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:02 PM on November 12, 2012

With the outstanding votes in California still uncounted, Nate Silver himself would have picked Ironmouth as the winner (see 7th paragraph from the bottom).
posted by yellowcandy at 12:28 PM on November 12, 2012

life-size cardboard Joe Biden
Probably the most sought-after campaign artifact. Lucky JKevin.
posted by Cranberry at 1:09 PM on November 12, 2012

I find it somewhat fitting that, in the related purchases, the life-size Romney is more expensive than all the other life-size cutouts and also only has one review.

If Jill Stein stages a coup in the next two months, I expect the winner to forward that cutout to me.
posted by backseatpilot at 1:34 PM on November 12, 2012

Yeah I think we have a DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN situation here. Count the votes!
posted by Justinian at 2:16 PM on November 12, 2012

Joint 18th in the Electoral College forecast; off to a new exciting career as a political pundit.
posted by arcticseal at 2:56 PM on November 12, 2012

Yay, congrats JKevinKing!

Thanks for humouring our psephological prognostications once more, rcade.
posted by goodnewsfortheinsane (staff) at 4:13 PM on November 12, 2012

Damn; I really want the J-Bide. Go Delaware! (I guess I should have entered the contest).
posted by JMOZ at 4:36 PM on November 12, 2012

> Cardboard or 3-D?

Cardboard is a physical object; it has three dimensions.
posted by heyho at 4:41 PM on November 12, 2012

Thanks a lot, rcade.
posted by undue influence at 5:37 PM on November 12, 2012

(Checks the table) Yes! I made it into the top 150 MetaFilter predictors! Stick that in your pipe and smoke it, Mr Nate "I've got a spreadsheet" Silver!
posted by Wordshore at 6:14 PM on November 12, 2012

Cardboard is a physical object; it has three dimensions.

You're not thinking fourth-dimensionally, Marty.
posted by shakespeherian at 6:35 PM on November 12, 2012 [1 favorite]

Maybe there could be another contest, to guess the day when they finally finish counting all the votes for the various elections e.g. Senate, from Arizona.

Because they are still being counted, and there's still a lot to count, and innumerable disputes. Reuters. Huff.

I'm a Brit, so it doesn't seem right for me to criticise the US democratic process (our own has major problems). But ... it's been six days now since polling stations closed in Arizona ... come on ...
posted by Wordshore at 7:32 PM on November 12, 2012 [1 favorite]

Too early to call a winner; there are a lot of outstanding votes. Obama's margin is going to increase.
posted by spaltavian at 5:57 AM on November 13, 2012 [1 favorite]

I made the top 100; time for a cornbread muffin!
posted by Renoroc at 9:12 AM on November 13, 2012

Too early to call a winner; there are a lot of outstanding votes. Obama's margin is going to increase.

The popular vote percentages haven't moved in five days. It doesn't look like they will move enough to change the winner, but if vote counting ever ends I'll take another look.

This is what happens when you let a Floridian report election results.
posted by rcade at 12:06 PM on November 13, 2012

I laughingly told Ralph about my Karl Rove award and he posted it on Facebook.....and people congratulated me.


*facepalm*
posted by St. Alia of the Bunnies at 3:02 PM on November 13, 2012 [2 favorites]

This is neat.

Here's a couple of 'wisdom of the crowd' observations, based on averages of all the predictions.

Actual result - Obama 332 EV, Romney 206 EV

MeFi prediction - Obama 303.7 EV (- 28.3 EV), Romney 234.2 EV (+ 28.2 EV)

One interpretation is that Mefi seems to have thought that Romney would win Florida.

Actual result (Wikipedia version) - Obama 50.61237283%, Romney 47.80192827%, Other 1.585698902%

MeFi prediction - Obama 50.42327184% (-0.18910099%), Romney 48.27779381% (+0.47586554%), Other 1.311592576% (-0.274106326)

Romney was overestimated more than Obama was underestimated, but pretty close, all in all.
posted by carter at 7:40 PM on November 13, 2012

I must live in a rather special world. I only know one person who voted for Obama. Where they are I don't know. They're outside my ken. But sometimes when I'm in a co-op grocery store I can feel them
posted by lstanley at 9:58 AM on November 14, 2012

I can't believe I won! I'd like to thank Nate Silver, Sam Wang, the folks at Pollster.com, my wife and daughter for their unending support, President Obama and his team, and, most of all, I'd like to thank Mitt Romney, for being such a douche!
posted by JKevinKing at 3:34 PM on November 18, 2012 [4 favorites]