Election 2012: Domo Arigato, Larry Sabato

November 5, 2012 9:01 AM

The pundits and psychics have already weighed in. Now it's your turn in MetaFilter's (mostly) quadrennial presidential prediction contest. The winner will receive a $50 Threadless gift certificate and a life-size cardboard Joe Biden. To enter, predict the percentage of the vote that President Obama, Mitt Romney and Everybody Else will receive and the number of electoral votes that Obama, Romney and Everybody Else will receive. Entries must be submitted before Dixville Notch, N.H., reports its vote early Tuesday morning.

Post your prediction as a comment. If two people make the same prediction the first to post will be the winner. Winner may not refuse to accept Joe Biden. Offer not valid in places the offer would not be valid.

posted by rcade to MetaFilter-Related at 9:01 AM (368 comments total)

50% Obama, 49% Romney.
posted by charred husk at 9:03 AM on November 5, 2012

49% Obama, 47% Romney, 4% Other/No Vote.

294 EV for Obama, 244 EV for Romney
posted by the man of twists and turns at 9:06 AM on November 5, 2012

Is this for real?

Can I make a side prediction about the outcome of this thread?
posted by iamkimiam at 9:07 AM on November 5, 2012

I'm jessamyn and I approve this message.

yes, this is for real
posted by jessamyn (staff) at 9:09 AM on November 5, 2012 [23 favorites]

51/49 o/r, 330 Ev's for Obama.
posted by empath at 9:09 AM on November 5, 2012

52% Obama, 46% Romney, 2% Other

310 EV Obama, 228 EV Romney
posted by giantfist at 9:10 AM on November 5, 2012

52% Obama, 47% Romney, 1% other.
posted by MuffinMan at 9:12 AM on November 5, 2012

49.2% Obama, 40.7% Romney, 8.4% Perot.
posted by Sys Rq at 9:12 AM on November 5, 2012 [8 favorites]

popular vote:
49.9% Obama
49.6% Romney
0.5% everyone else

EC:
307 Obama
231 Romney
posted by xbonesgt at 9:13 AM on November 5, 2012

50% Obama, 49.5% Romney, 0.5% other

303 Obama
posted by griphus at 9:14 AM on November 5, 2012

Is this for real?

How could you doubt me? I ran the quadrennial in 2000 and 2004. I've been here so long I used to ridicule Mathowie for being a noob.
posted by rcade at 9:14 AM on November 5, 2012 [16 favorites]

Electoral College:

297 Obama, 241 Romney, 0 Everyone else

Popular Vote:
Obama 50%, Romeny 49%, 1% Other
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 9:16 AM on November 5, 2012

Obama 51%, 330 EV
Romney 48%, 208 EV
Other 1%, 0 EV

I'm using a system called "whatever 538 has right now, favor the mode for EV".
posted by cortex (staff) at 9:16 AM on November 5, 2012 [25 favorites]

Popular Vote:
Obama 50.3
Romney 49.4
Everyone Else 0.3


EC:
Obama: 303
Romney: 235
posted by ThePinkSuperhero at 9:16 AM on November 5, 2012 [1 favorite]

51% Obama, 49% Romney

EC: 308 Obama 230 Romney
posted by ShawnString at 9:17 AM on November 5, 2012

Popular vote: 50.6% Obama, 48.5% Romney, 0.9% everyone else
EC: 318 Obama, 220 Romney
posted by beagle at 9:17 AM on November 5, 2012

(And I feel like rounding error is going to be decisive on this since e.g. 538 saying Obama at 50.6%, even if it turns out to be stunningly on the mark, could still easy slip a couple tenths and make 51% the wrong choice. Damn, damn and blast!)
posted by cortex (staff) at 9:18 AM on November 5, 2012

%: 49.8 O, 49.5 R, 0.7 E
EV: 306 O, 232 R, 0 E
posted by audi alteram partem at 9:19 AM on November 5, 2012

Damn, too late use the edit window to add decimal points to my prediction. Can I redo it out to six decimal places to ensure accuracy?
posted by charred husk at 9:23 AM on November 5, 2012

Yep, sorry...didn't realise this was a thing. First impression was that it wasn't really metafilter related (and/or would be ok by mods). I'll have a think about it and join in on the fin with some numbers later!
posted by iamkimiam at 9:24 AM on November 5, 2012

49% Romney 49% Obama, Obama with 298 EVs to Romney's 240.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 9:24 AM on November 5, 2012

Obama: crowned God-Emperor
Romney: stuffed into a wicker man
posted by elizardbits at 9:24 AM on November 5, 2012 [46 favorites]

You can post a new prediction to replace the earlier one. I'm liberal about this contest (and everything else).
posted by rcade at 9:24 AM on November 5, 2012 [1 favorite]

Obama 52, Romney 47; Obama 303, Romney 235.
posted by norm at 9:24 AM on November 5, 2012

50.5% Obama, 48% Romney, 1.5% Others
328 Obama, 210 Romney
posted by hariya at 9:25 AM on November 5, 2012

Winner may not refuse to accept Joe Biden.

Nobody who could refuse to accept Joe Biden is really a winner.
posted by headnsouth at 9:26 AM on November 5, 2012 [26 favorites]

50.2% O, 49.6 % R, .2% everyone else
EV: 294/244/0
posted by logicpunk at 9:26 AM on November 5, 2012

Could you post links to the past contests? I forgot what I said last time. I remember I missed low on Obama's EV total.
posted by norm at 9:27 AM on November 5, 2012

Obama - 50.15 % popular vote / 307 Electoral votes
Romney - 48.55% popular vote / 230 Electoral votes
Other - 1.3% popular vote / 0 Electoral votes
posted by COD at 9:27 AM on November 5, 2012

Obama 50.333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333%
Romney 49.666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666%
posted by charred husk at 9:28 AM on November 5, 2012 [6 favorites]

O: 50.5
R: 49.1
Scrubs: 0.4

EC:
Obama: 298
Romney: 240
posted by dirtdirt at 9:28 AM on November 5, 2012

Popular Vote:
Obama 49
Romney 48
Everyone Else 3


EC:
Obama: 332
Romney: 206
posted by onya at 9:29 AM on November 5, 2012 [2 favorites]

Past contest link that I found was here. I think the older one goes to a dead link on rcade's site.
posted by jessamyn (staff) at 9:29 AM on November 5, 2012 [1 favorite]

O 51 : R 48 : Oth 1
O 334: R 204

(based on I think if we're betting Florida's worth a punt but NC isn't)

Also, Senate D 52 R 47 Ind 1.
posted by genghis at 9:31 AM on November 5, 2012

There should be a thread here with the entries from 2000, since they were submitted as comments. Gsteff ran the event in 2008.
posted by rcade at 9:32 AM on November 5, 2012

51.9% Obama, 46.7% Romney, 1.4% others.

Obama 346, Romney 192

These predictions are purely hypothetical, because I refuse to accept Joe Biden.
posted by beryllium at 9:35 AM on November 5, 2012

Popular Vote:
Obama 48
Romney 49

EC:
Obama 303
Romney 235

But even if I don't win I'm buying that Biden standee.
posted by ferociouskitty at 9:35 AM on November 5, 2012

Obama 48% popular, 330 ev
Romney 53% popular 208 ev
Other 1% popular, 0 ev
posted by Jahaza at 9:36 AM on November 5, 2012

I did not want to be reminded of a) what I said (damn you Ohio) or b) what happened (damn you Ohio) in 2004.
posted by norm at 9:36 AM on November 5, 2012 [1 favorite]

EV: Obama-303 Romney-235
Popular: Obama-50.1 Romney-49.6 Other-0.3
posted by Benny Andajetz at 9:37 AM on November 5, 2012

O: 51.3 R: 48.5 Rest:0.2

EV: O: 332 R: 206
posted by ersatz at 9:38 AM on November 5, 2012

Obama 53, 293
Romney 46, 245
Other 1, 0
posted by SweetTeaAndABiscuit at 9:38 AM on November 5, 2012

Popular Vote:
Obama 52.5%
Romney 47%
Others 0.5%

EC:
Obama 303
Romney 235
posted by ndfine at 9:40 AM on November 5, 2012

Lich Queen Madonna victory at the last moment via necromantic spell, per other thread.
posted by Artw at 9:41 AM on November 5, 2012

Obama 48% popular, 330 ev
Romney 51% popular 208 ev
Other 1% popular, 0 ev

This one actually ads up to 100%
posted by Jahaza at 9:41 AM on November 5, 2012

This really isn't the same without Rod Roddy :(
posted by griphus at 9:42 AM on November 5, 2012 [2 favorites]

Based on a guess that the difference between state and national polls is due to underestimating the change from land-line to mobile phones (particularly in the north):

Obama: 52.3, Romney 47.3, Others: 0.4%. EC would be 347 to Obama, 191 to Romney.
posted by Baron Humbert von Gikkingen at 9:42 AM on November 5, 2012

Obama 49% / 347 EV
Romney 49% / 191 EV
other 2% / 0 EV
posted by Eumachia L F at 9:42 AM on November 5, 2012

Obama - 50.2% -- 308 EV
Mittens - 49.5% -- 230 EV
Other - .3% -- 0 EV
posted by Jacob G at 9:46 AM on November 5, 2012

Obama: 49% 290 EV
Romney: 50% 248 EV
Other: <1>
Romney wins popular vote, mainly due to voter suppression :-(
Obama wins electoral college.
If it's any closer than this, the GOP is going to take it to the courts.
posted by thecjm at 9:48 AM on November 5, 2012

Obama: 51% / 303 EV
Rmoney: 48% / 235 EV
Other: 1%
posted by m0nm0n at 9:50 AM on November 5, 2012

Obama 281 electoral votes
Romney 257 electoral votes

Obama 49.5%, Romney 49%, other 1.5%
posted by cashman at 9:53 AM on November 5, 2012

Forget the votes, what's the over/under on the number of comments in the election thread by midnight?
posted by ceribus peribus at 9:57 AM on November 5, 2012 [3 favorites]

Obama: 50.7%, 303 EC
Romney: 48.4%, 235 EC
Other: 0.9%, 0 EC
posted by mskyle at 9:57 AM on November 5, 2012

I predict a riot.
posted by srboisvert at 9:58 AM on November 5, 2012

EC:
Obama 294
Romney 244
Other 0

PV:
Obama 50.1%, Romney 49.0%, other 0.9%
posted by saturday_morning at 9:59 AM on November 5, 2012

Obama 51% 308 EC
Romney 48% 230 EC

thanks 538!
posted by leotrotsky at 10:01 AM on November 5, 2012

Romney 51% w/ 295 EV
Obama 48% w/ 243 EV
posted by lstanley at 10:01 AM on November 5, 2012

Obama holds Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Virginia, and New Hampshire, while Romney takes Colorado, North Carolina, and Florida.

52-48 Obama, 294 EVs and the White House.
posted by Rhaomi at 10:02 AM on November 5, 2012

How many significant digits should be in the percentages? 51% covers a multitude of sins revealed by 50.7%. Is it our choice?
posted by OmieWise at 10:03 AM on November 5, 2012

Obama - 49.0 % popular vote / 276 Electoral votes
Romney - 50.0% popular vote / 262 Electoral votes
Other - 1.0% popular vote / 0 Electoral votes
posted by JeffL at 10:05 AM on November 5, 2012

O52 R47 X1
O290 R248 X0
posted by fleacircus at 10:08 AM on November 5, 2012

OmieWise: can't you just assume 51% = 51.0%?
posted by leotrotsky at 10:08 AM on November 5, 2012

A tie; 270/270 split in EV.
Romney 50%, Obama 48%.
posted by These Premises Are Alarmed at 10:08 AM on November 5, 2012

OmieWise: can't you just assume 51% = 51.0%?

I'm not sure. I see an awful lot of predictions here that assume a .0% then, which seems dubious to me. There's not just the question of what we're predicting, there is also the question of what we're looking at to get the data. Will the results be rounded, and at how many significant digits? That's all I'm asking. (I'm not gonna win anyway.)
posted by OmieWise at 10:11 AM on November 5, 2012

Oh, and Other = 1%
posted by leotrotsky at 10:11 AM on November 5, 2012

Popular Vote: Obama -- 50.6% || Romney -- 48.5%

Electoral Vote: Obama -- 307 || 231
posted by ericb at 10:12 AM on November 5, 2012

Obama 50.9, Romney 48.4, other 0.7

Obama 294, Romney 244
posted by Area Man at 10:14 AM on November 5, 2012

I so very badly want Romney to get 47% of the vote.
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 10:15 AM on November 5, 2012 [40 favorites]

I was just thinking that when looking at last year's numbers; I think it's totally believable that Romney could get around 1.3% more than McCain, which would be the magic number.
posted by MCMikeNamara at 10:18 AM on November 5, 2012

Obama 49.4% (EC: 303)
Mittens 49.0% (EC: 235)
Others 1.6%

(Whoops, fixed the "Others" percentage via edit)
posted by Hairy Lobster at 10:20 AM on November 5, 2012

President John Boehner
posted by homunculus at 10:20 AM on November 5, 2012

O:50
R:48
EV:330 Obama
posted by longtime_lurker at 10:21 AM on November 5, 2012

Popular Vote:
Obama 99.99999%
Romney 00.000009%
Everyone Else 00.000001%

EC:
Obama: 535
Romney: 3

But the GOP will figure some way to get the Supreme Court to award it to Romney.
posted by lampshade at 10:22 AM on November 5, 2012 [8 favorites]

O: 48% R: 45% Other/None: 7%

O: 295 R: 248
posted by cmoj at 10:23 AM on November 5, 2012

Obama: 341 EV w/ 51.6%

Romney: 197 EV w/ 47.0%

Other: 0 EV w 1.4%
posted by MCMikeNamara at 10:23 AM on November 5, 2012

Obama 51.06%, 309 EV
Romney 47.94%, 229 EV
Other 1%, 0 EV
posted by Potomac Avenue at 10:28 AM on November 5, 2012

Obama: 303 49.9%
Romney: 235 48.8%

Other: 1.3%
posted by Beardsley Klamm at 10:29 AM on November 5, 2012

Obummer: 332 EV, 50.9%
Romnoms: 206 EV, 47.4%
Lol: 0 EV, 1.7%
posted by showbiz_liz at 10:34 AM on November 5, 2012

Obama: 330 50.5%
Romney: 208 48.8%
Other 0.7%
posted by Navelgazer at 10:35 AM on November 5, 2012

Obama: 303 53.1%
Romney: 235 46.5%
Other: 0.4%
posted by Lemurrhea at 10:41 AM on November 5, 2012

whatever Nate Silver says
posted by one more dead town's last parade at 10:42 AM on November 5, 2012 [2 favorites]

O 51.3
R 48.5

303:235

Senate: 53(includ 2 Ind)/47
House: D 168 R 237
posted by edgeways at 10:44 AM on November 5, 2012

Obamabot 50.1 % 330 EV
Rombot 48.1 % 208 EV
Humans 1.8 % 0 EV
posted by rocket88 at 10:44 AM on November 5, 2012

Romney: 270 EV, 49.0%
Obama: 268 EV, 48.5%
Other: 0 EV, 2.5%

State-by-state breakdown. And prediction from a year ago.

Also:
- No definite presidential election result until this Friday (9th November) at the earliest.
- If the EVs end up as predicted, continued speculation about any "sleeper" Ron Paul delegates flipping their vote.
- Chicago, New Orleans and Los Angeles may not be the best places to be for a while.

Returns to self-imposed social media exile.
posted by Wordshore at 10:46 AM on November 5, 2012 [1 favorite]

One does not simply guess the result.

It's stats are pondered by more than wonks. There are mods there that do not sleep. Nate Silver is ever watchful. It is a barren pastime, riddled with grar, angst and worse. The very blogs we breathe are a poisonous spume. Not with ten thousand Mefites could we do this. It is folly.
posted by philipy at 10:46 AM on November 5, 2012 [3 favorites]

At least one of the state's elections on 6 November will eventually be declared invalid. That's my prediction.
posted by Jehan at 10:47 AM on November 5, 2012

my bet makes no sense lol, just threw some random numbers in there.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 10:48 AM on November 5, 2012

Obama 50.6%, 303 EV
Romney 47.9%, 235 EV
Other 1.5%, 0 EV

Good luck, folks.
posted by goodnewsfortheinsane (staff) at 10:49 AM on November 5, 2012

At least one of the state's elections on 6 November will eventually be declared invalid. That's my prediction.

Do you want to bet on that?
posted by Potomac Avenue at 10:49 AM on November 5, 2012

Obama 51.9 % — 287 EV
Romney 47.2 % — 251 EV
Other 0.9%

And Romney catches the snitch.
posted by Mister_A at 10:50 AM on November 5, 2012 [1 favorite]

Here is my "blowout" guess which would be similar to 2008 where Obama outperforms the polls and wins all of the competitive states:

Obama: 347 EV - 52.5%
Romney: 191 EV - 46.7%
Everyone Else: 0 EV - 0.8%
posted by burnmp3s at 10:51 AM on November 5, 2012

Here's my actual prediction, feel free to not count either one in the contest for me voting twice. (TRADITION!)

Obama 50.01%, 285 EV
Romney 49.08%, 253 EV
posted by Potomac Avenue at 10:52 AM on November 5, 2012

Politics As Usual: 1
US Citizens: 0
posted by Greg_Ace at 10:53 AM on November 5, 2012 [8 favorites]

Obama: 51.5%, 303 EV
Romney: 47.3% 235 EV
posted by Blazecock Pileon at 10:53 AM on November 5, 2012

How many significant digits should be in the percentages?

You can be as precise as you want. Entries are ranked from first to last in popular vote and electoral vote, based on how far they are off the mark. The winner has the best average of those two ranks.
posted by rcade at 10:59 AM on November 5, 2012

In 2008 there was a prediction contest that started in October and a winner was declared in a separate thread.
posted by burnmp3s at 11:02 AM on November 5, 2012

Widespread but unproven "voting irregularities" in democratic districts of Ohio and Florida.
posted by ook at 11:07 AM on November 5, 2012 [1 favorite]

Obama 290 / 48.7%
Romney 248 / 47.3%
other 0 / 4.0%
posted by GhostintheMachine at 11:07 AM on November 5, 2012

Obama: 50.9%, 303 EV
Romney: 47.7%, 235 EV
Others: 1.4%, 0 EV

I am also disappointed in the lack of Customer Action Shots on the Amazon listing for Cardboard Biden.
posted by sparklemotion at 11:10 AM on November 5, 2012 [1 favorite]

The winner has the best average of those two ranks.

Okay, but if there's an even tie, I demand open combat.

I also demand the same of the candidates.
posted by griphus at 11:12 AM on November 5, 2012 [1 favorite]

Obama: 332 EV (50.8%)
Romney: 206 EV (48.1%)
posted by I am the Walrus at 11:13 AM on November 5, 2012

Bronco Bama: 284/51%
Romney: 254/48%
Other: 0/1%
posted by Sailormom at 11:14 AM on November 5, 2012 [3 favorites]

Obama: 49.8%, 283 EV
Romney: 48.4%, 255 EV
Other: 1.8%, 0 EV
posted by Golden Eternity at 11:18 AM on November 5, 2012

Obama: 290 / 50.2%
(R)Money: 248 / 47.7%
John Galt, et al.: 0 / 2.1%
posted by scody at 11:20 AM on November 5, 2012 [1 favorite]

Just curious, how are you going to analyze the data? Are you using a screen scraper or are you going to manually do it?
posted by hariya at 11:20 AM on November 5, 2012

Obama: 50.9%, 314EV
Romney: 48.2% 224EV
Other: .9%, 0EV
posted by zug at 11:23 AM on November 5, 2012

I don't have any predictions (c'mon Obama and Elizabeth Warren!), but I'm as tightly wound as a fucking spring, and I fully expect to be wasted tomorrow night no matter which way this goes.

I cannot wait for this to be over.
posted by Admiral Haddock at 11:26 AM on November 5, 2012 [15 favorites]

Obama - 55% popular vote / 304 Electoral votes
Romney - 44% popular vote / 229 Electoral votes

What can I say ... this is the best of all possible worlds.
posted by Surfurrus at 11:27 AM on November 5, 2012

Obama: 347
Romney: 191
Obama takes 51.4% of the vote, Romney gets 46.2% of the vote. Others take the balance.
posted by humanfont at 11:29 AM on November 5, 2012

Obama: 50.65%, 307 EV
Romney: 48.45%, 231 EV
Others: .9%, 0 EV
posted by craven_morhead at 11:29 AM on November 5, 2012

Obama 51, R 48.

Obama 332 EV to 206 EV.
posted by Ironmouth at 11:32 AM on November 5, 2012

surfurrus - you forgot Alaska (or another 3EV state). Or you're just a rebel.
posted by zug at 11:32 AM on November 5, 2012 [1 favorite]

Pop. Vote
Obama 50.6
Romney 48.5
Electoral
Obama 330
Romney 208
posted by Bonzai at 11:35 AM on November 5, 2012

Obama: 49.3%, 327 EV
Romney: 49.3%, 211 EV
Others: 1.4%, 0 EV
posted by box at 11:38 AM on November 5, 2012

Obama 49.9, 303 EV
Romney 49.2, 235 EV
posted by Theta States at 11:39 AM on November 5, 2012

Ah, hell, let's just forget about my above prediction.
posted by box at 11:41 AM on November 5, 2012

Obama 51%, 308 EV
Romney 48%, 230 EV
posted by asra at 11:44 AM on November 5, 2012

Do you want to bet on that?

What do you have in mind, good sir?
posted by Jehan at 11:50 AM on November 5, 2012

surfurrus - you forgot Alaska (or another 3EV state). Or you're just a rebel.

Oh, I'd like to forget Alaska -- just bad math (rebel against the EV?? moi??)

Revised:

Obama - 55% popular vote / 308 Electoral votes
Romney - 44% popular vote / 230 Electoral votes

What can I say ... this is the best of all possible worlds.

posted by Surfurrus at 11:52 AM on November 5, 2012

Obama 50.2% 332 EV
Romney 49.6% 206 EV
posted by localhuman at 11:53 AM on November 5, 2012

I was going to leave this to you politically minded folks but CARDBOARD JOE BIDEN CUTOUT

Obama 50.2%, 303 EV
Romney 49.0%, 235 EV
Other 0.8%
posted by rhythm and booze at 11:53 AM on November 5, 2012

Obama 49.2%
Romney 49.8%

EV: Romney 280

No, I don't actually think Obama will lose, but without a single guess for Romney from anybody else, I like my odds. Call it the Price is Right "$1" strategy
posted by jpdoane at 11:55 AM on November 5, 2012 [6 favorites]

What do you have in mind, good sir?

I think 0 state's elections on 6 November will eventually be declared invalid.

At least in terms of the presidential race.

Memail me if you'd like to discuss terms.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 11:55 AM on November 5, 2012

Popular vote:

Obama 50.9%
Romney 48.0%
Other 1.1%

Electoral vote:

Obama 332
Romney 206
Other 0
posted by UrineSoakedRube at 11:56 AM on November 5, 2012

Romney: 49.4%, EV 269
Obama: 48.8%, EV 269
Other: 1.8%

Let us all welcome President Romney and Vice President Biden.
posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 11:57 AM on November 5, 2012 [3 favorites]

Don't blame me, I voted Obama/Lizardman.
posted by griphus at 12:00 PM on November 5, 2012

Popular: 50.8% Obama, 48.3% Romney, 0.9% Everyone Else
Electoral: 320 Obama, 218 Romney, 0 Everyone Else.
posted by ignignokt at 12:00 PM on November 5, 2012

Obama: 50.1%, 307 EV
Romney: 48.0%, 231 EV.
Other: 1.9%
posted by no relation at 12:00 PM on November 5, 2012

Popular: Obama 46.9
Romney 48.2
The Rest 3.9

Electoral: Romney 289
Obama 246
posted by St. Alia of the Bunnies at 12:02 PM on November 5, 2012

Obama: 50.8% popular, 308 EV
Romney: 48.2% popular, 230 EV
Other: 1.0%

(Alternately: Cain makes a last-ditch write-in effort running with Sandra Day O'Connor, attempting to capitalize on his instantly relevant "HermanCain Sandy" campaign. Obama is still president, but Cain wins the 4 electoral votes of New Hampshire, because why not?)
posted by Turkey Glue at 12:04 PM on November 5, 2012 [1 favorite]

Do people really see 'other' collecting 4% of the votes or are you just hoping to stake out a position on a weird outlier?
posted by Mister_A at 12:05 PM on November 5, 2012

but without a single guess for Romney from anybody else, I like my odds. Call it the Price is Right "$1" strategy

Ahem.

Romney 51% w/ 295 EV
Obama 48% w/ 243 EV
posted by lstanley at 10:01 AM on November 5 [+] [!]

(slayer fingers)
posted by lstanley at 12:05 PM on November 5, 2012

Quick question: is anybody predicting that the person you DON'T want to win will actually win? And doing so not out of gamesmanship but conviction that the other candidate really will win? It's weird how it's so partisan.
posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 12:06 PM on November 5, 2012 [1 favorite]

Somebody else upthread called Romney higher than Obama, but I like my odds.
posted by St. Alia of the Bunnies at 12:07 PM on November 5, 2012

I know YOU like your odds, you're a Romney supporter. I'm wondering if any Obama supporters share your sentiment, or vice-versa.
posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 12:08 PM on November 5, 2012

I was responding to a comment that it looks like was deleted. But carry on.
posted by St. Alia of the Bunnies at 12:09 PM on November 5, 2012

Obama: 332 EV (50.75%)
Romney: 206 EV (47.75%)
Other: 0 EV (1.5%)
posted by JKevinKing at 12:10 PM on November 5, 2012

Quick question: is anybody predicting that the person you DON'T want to win will actually win? And doing so not out of gamesmanship but conviction that the other candidate really will win? It's weird how it's so partisan.

Well, we're all internet nerds who obsessively read 538- I think that's the reason most of these are for Obama. If I thought Romney'd win, I'd say so, because I like Threadless!
posted by showbiz_liz at 12:10 PM on November 5, 2012 [3 favorites]

Electoral: Romney 289
Obama 246
posted by St. Alia of the Bunnies at 12:02 PM on November 5
[+] [!]

Unless an independent party manages to win a few EVs, your math don't add up.
posted by Blazecock Pileon at 12:11 PM on November 5, 2012

O: 303 EV 51.1% PV
R: 235 EV 48.9% PV

And, in the case my entry ties with many others, allow me to unfairly influence the judges by saying I will never ever leave home without Lifesize Cardboard Biden and I will take pictures of his many adventures.
posted by honestcoyote at 12:11 PM on November 5, 2012 [5 favorites]

47% Obama, 48% Romney, 5% Other

291 EV for Obama, 247 EV for Romney
posted by Doleful Creature at 12:11 PM on November 5, 2012

Hey, I'm counting on some Ron Paul worshipers to make my day. That and I stink at math.
posted by St. Alia of the Bunnies at 12:12 PM on November 5, 2012 [7 favorites]

jill stein will take it all in a surprise hail mary
posted by backseatpilot at 12:13 PM on November 5, 2012 [2 favorites]

This is my favorite "Whaaaa" scenario. Obama loses everything he's supposed to win and wins Iowa and Florida and scrapes out a V.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 12:19 PM on November 5, 2012

Obama 51%, 294 EV
Romney 48.1%, 244 EV
Other .9%
posted by diogenes at 12:22 PM on November 5, 2012

Wow, it's like 100% prediction for Obama here.

Would love to what a similar thread on a decidedly right leaning community would say.
posted by eas98 at 12:22 PM on November 5, 2012

Potomac Avenue, that is a cool tool!! BTW, here is my 269/269 map.
posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 12:22 PM on November 5, 2012 [1 favorite]

Here's what's Dick Morris' looks like at 11pm tomorrow. Add your own teardrops.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 12:25 PM on November 5, 2012

If Nate Silver's methodology holds up, this is basically a contest of who can guess the Other percentage to the closest tenth of a percent.
posted by diogenes at 12:29 PM on November 5, 2012 [3 favorites]

Briefly returns

(Looks at lots and lots and lots of people predicting an Obama win.

So it looks like if Romney narrowly wins then I can console my disappointment at the result by crying on the shoulder of a lifesize cut-out of Joe Biden.

I guess that'll be some consolation.

Goes away, tries to ignore social media and politics. Fails.
posted by Wordshore at 12:35 PM on November 5, 2012

Obama: 50%; 255 EV
Romney: 49%; 283 EV
Other: 1%; 0 EV
posted by exogenous at 12:35 PM on November 5, 2012

If Nate Silver's methodology holds up, this is basically a contest of who can guess the Other percentage to the closest tenth of a percent.

His methodology is awesome at aggregating polls and comparing to past data/trends. The question I have is whether the polls this cycle are going to be good at predicting the outcome. I don't buy the hate directed toward Silver, because he does awesome work. But that doesn't mean that the polls that are being released are more accurate this cycle than they were last cycle.

On preview: exogenous definitely has the Obama wins popular vote, loses EC vote tied up. Not sure I've seen that one yet.
posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 12:39 PM on November 5, 2012

I think his predictions will be off in a big way, in one state. He himself has said they could be way off in certain very volatile states where polls are historically wobbly predictors: Ohio, NH, Iowa. One of those will go red. But it won't make that big of a difference.

I seriously think it's possible Florida goes blue though, on some oddball whiplash shit. Prove me right Floridians!
posted by Potomac Avenue at 12:41 PM on November 5, 2012

My faith in the US electoral system is limitless!

Popular vote:
Obama - 49.1%
Romney - 49.3%
Other - 1.6%

Electoral vote:
Obama - 271
Romney - 267
posted by vasi at 12:46 PM on November 5, 2012

I think his predictions will be off in a big way, in one state. He himself has said they could be way off in certain very volatile states where polls are historically wobbly predictors: Ohio, NH, Iowa. One of those will go red. But it won't make that big of a difference.

I seriously think it's possible Florida goes blue though, on some oddball whiplash shit. Prove me right Floridians!

Florida is actually the most probable flip on Nate's map. It's only 55.5% Romney.

If Ohio, NH, or Iowa went red, that wouldn't make his predictions off in a big way. He's got them at around a 1 in 5 chance for Romney.
posted by diogenes at 12:49 PM on November 5, 2012

Remember, if Nate Silver's methodology holds up, there's still a roughly one in six chance Romney wins.
posted by Mister_A at 12:50 PM on November 5, 2012

But that doesn't mean that the polls that are being released are more accurate this cycle than they were last cycle.

His probabilities account for the average accuracy of the polls historically.
posted by diogenes at 12:52 PM on November 5, 2012

More like 1 in 10, now.
posted by empath at 12:52 PM on November 5, 2012 [1 favorite]

Obama- 272 (49.2%)
Romney- 266 (49.6%)

others 1.2%
posted by droomoord at 12:53 PM on November 5, 2012

Do people really see 'other' collecting 4% of the votes or are you just hoping to stake out a position on a weird outlier?

"None-of-the-above" votes: Jill Stein in safe Democratic states, Ron Paul in safe Republican states. Or vice-versa (Jill Stein in safe R, Ron Paul in safe D)
posted by the man of twists and turns at 12:53 PM on November 5, 2012

Jim Cramer is my favorite. He predicts obama wins with close to 50-50 pop / 290 EC, so everybody buy Dollar Store stock because they take food stamps! Hilars.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 12:54 PM on November 5, 2012

Remember, if Nate Silver's methodology holds up, there's still a roughly one in six chance Romney wins.

True, I should have said if his methodology holds up, and one of the more likely outcomes occurs...
posted by diogenes at 12:55 PM on November 5, 2012

What is the map for 330 electoral votes? All of Nate Silver's blue states minus Virginia plus Florida and Indiana?
posted by invitapriore at 12:58 PM on November 5, 2012

Jim Cramer has Obama winning with 440 electoral votes. I think everyone except Alaska and Texas goes Barry. It's daffy, obviously, but I now sort of like Jim Cramer.
posted by dirtdirt at 12:59 PM on November 5, 2012 [1 favorite]

I guess Arizona instead of Indiana is another technical possibility. I'm going to go ahead and say that it's safe to bet against Tennessee being the one.
posted by invitapriore at 1:00 PM on November 5, 2012

Head fake? Why release them today?
posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 1:01 PM on November 5, 2012

Has everyone seen Josh Whedon's take on what happens if the Prez isn't reelected? Sort of an anti-Cramer scenario . . .
posted by bearwife at 1:04 PM on November 5, 2012

Why would that be a head fake? Isn't it standard operating procedure to claim confidence just before election day?
posted by diogenes at 1:05 PM on November 5, 2012

Green Party and the Lib party need to wise up, stop nominating boring politicians to run and get like a Jesse Ventura/Woody Harrelson type to actually generate some buzz and get people talking about real issues like the drug war and how do we get more drugs we have run out of drugs, someone go to the guy and get some more drugs.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 1:05 PM on November 5, 2012 [4 favorites]

Maybe, diogenes. Did the McCain camp do that in 2008, Kerry in 2004, etc? And anyway, expressing false confidence is a head fake, no?
posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 1:06 PM on November 5, 2012

50.0 Obama 46.0 Romney 4.0 Other

Obama 300 EV Romney 238 EV
posted by schyler523 at 1:06 PM on November 5, 2012

Jim Cramer has Obama winning with 440 electoral votes.

As a professional predictor of things, that's an awesome bet. He throws down a wildly positive number in some random article, if he misses he still says he knew Obama would win and if he's right he looks like a genius for knowing it would be a landslide. Smart.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 1:07 PM on November 5, 2012 [3 favorites]

To put it simply, the Republican Machine will deliver Romney the White House.

Obama may eke out a Gore-like narrow popular vote - 49.8% to 49.4% with .6% to others, even after maximum GOP vote suppression and vote fraud - but the true Powers That Be will ensure that Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia will be delivered to their masters, resulting in a 282 to 256 Romney Electoral Win. But that may not be finalized until the Supreme Court gets to decide that Bush Vs. Gore does indeed set a precedent.

I just hope I'm wrong.
posted by oneswellfoop at 1:07 PM on November 5, 2012

Here's a scenario for 330.
posted by diogenes at 1:07 PM on November 5, 2012

The Romney campaign believes that both Florida, Virginia and North Carolina - all of which Obama won in 2008 - are 'done' for the Democratic incumbent, as one senior adviser put it.

Gotta love the Daily Fail.
posted by Mister_A at 1:08 PM on November 5, 2012

OBAMA: 50.13%
ROMNEY: 48.85%
OTHER: 1.02%
posted by FJT at 1:08 PM on November 5, 2012

Maybe, diogenes. Did the McCain camp do that in 2008, Kerry in 2004, etc?
posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates

"These numbers don't look good for Obama"
Karl Rove, 7pm, November 4th 2008
posted by Potomac Avenue at 1:09 PM on November 5, 2012 [2 favorites]

As a North Carolina Democrat it would make me so, so very happy if NC went for Obama again.
posted by SweetTeaAndABiscuit at 1:11 PM on November 5, 2012 [1 favorite]

EV: Obama 304/Romney 229
Popular: Obama 50.4%/Romney 49.2%/Other .4%
posted by likeatoaster at 1:12 PM on November 5, 2012

Hey, rcade, not so sure about the Threadless prize, since the best political t-shirt design today (as well as one that fits perfectly with the life-sized cardboard Joe Biden) comes from MeFi's Own clango's shirt store.
posted by oneswellfoop at 1:13 PM on November 5, 2012 [3 favorites]

And anyway, expressing false confidence is a head fake, no?

I guess it depends on what you mean by head fake. I think of a head fake as doing something that is counter to expectations.
posted by diogenes at 1:14 PM on November 5, 2012

51.5% Romney
48% Obama
.5% Other

I don't understand how the electoral college works but I think Romney will get 11 more "colleges" (is that what they are called?) than Obama.
posted by saucysault at 1:15 PM on November 5, 2012

Oh. No, that's not really how I was using it. A head fake is a deliberate misdirection (at least in basketball!)
posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 1:16 PM on November 5, 2012

Obama 50.3%
Romney 48.8%
Other .9%

Obama 297 EV
Romney 241 EV
posted by mcmile at 1:16 PM on November 5, 2012

saucysault: one can not win the electoral college by 11.
posted by Mister_A at 1:17 PM on November 5, 2012

(Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates> I know YOU like your odds, you're a Romney supporter. I'm wondering if any Obama supporters share your sentiment, or vice-versa.

I like St. Alia's odds as well: even though I think that Obama is likely to win the popular and electoral votes, she's staking out a claim in a relatively open area of the betting space. In other words, she's doing what I do in ESPN's March Madness bracket challenge: picking an unlikely outcome where other contestants aren't choosing to stake their claims. If Romney wins the popular and electoral votes (which I don't think will happen but I can't rule out), she's a big favorite to take it all.
posted by UrineSoakedRube at 1:17 PM on November 5, 2012 [2 favorites]

I'm trying to find a link for the Rove quote and having no luck. :( Video would be awesome.
posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 1:18 PM on November 5, 2012

Romney 277, 50.8%
Obama 261 47.4%
Others 1.8%

[see if Obama loses, then I could console myself with a Biden cut-out !]
posted by fizzix at 1:20 PM on November 5, 2012

Yeah full disclosure that Rove quote might be an urban legend but I read it in a thread on Sean Hannity's forum (don't ask), posted BY a disappointed Romney supporter admitting defeat looks pretty sure for his party this year.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 1:23 PM on November 5, 2012

(it actually looks like Rove was predicting an Obama blowout on 11/3/08)
posted by edgeways at 1:23 PM on November 5, 2012

NBC accidentally released an early mock-up page of results ... no one here has claimed their numbers yet. Just sayin'...
posted by saucysault at 1:23 PM on November 5, 2012

if Obama loses, then I could console myself with a Biden cut-out

The Biden cut-out automatically consoles you with a cardboard hamburger and gruff swearing. But it's a kind gruff-ness.
posted by Turkey Glue at 1:24 PM on November 5, 2012 [1 favorite]

As a professional predictor of things, that's an awesome bet. He throws down a wildly positive number in some random article, if he misses he still says he knew Obama would win and if he's right he looks like a genius for knowing it would be a landslide. Smart.

On the other hand, if you want to bet on stocks, and you can either take advice from flipping a fair coin or interviewing a caffeinated Jim Cramer, pick the coin for better odds.
posted by Blazecock Pileon at 1:24 PM on November 5, 2012

Re: saucysault's link: Obama loses popular vote by 12% AND wins EC. That would be so hella sweet. (well, mostly strange)
posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 1:25 PM on November 5, 2012

Obama 51.2%, 330 EV
Romney 47.8%, 208 EV
Other 1%, 0 EV

I'd like a cardboard cutout of Hilary.
posted by arcticseal at 1:26 PM on November 5, 2012 [1 favorite]

Going back to the internal polls thing, I'm just curious because isn't it typically the case that there is bluster in the days before the campaign (but numbers are never actually discussed), then AFTER the campaign the losing side releases the internals, saying, "well, yeah, we sort of knew we were going to lose." I'm trying to find an example of the underdog releasing internals the day before the election, and am coming up short. I will say that the giveaway that the story is bogus is the whole "Virginia is so wrapped up!" -- meanwhile, Romney is currently campaigning there.

And I am posting a lot in this thread! Too much! It should just be a prediction thread! Sorry everyone, a little ON EDGE you know! About tomorrow! That's all!
posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 1:31 PM on November 5, 2012 [2 favorites]

I can see a campaign saying "we're not going to win this swing state, but we can't publicly give up on it because that'll become a story unto itself and depress turnout elsewhere."
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 1:33 PM on November 5, 2012

Popular vote:
Obama: 50.2%
Romney: 48.8%
Everybody else: 1%

Electoral college:
Obama: 303
Romney: 235
Everybody else: 0
posted by googly at 1:36 PM on November 5, 2012

Is this competition open to international players? Not that I fully grok the numbers, but hey, if I work on an average of everyone else's I've got to be in the ballpark, right?
posted by b33j at 1:47 PM on November 5, 2012

Obama 307
Romney 230
Rcade's ego: 1
posted by terrapin at 1:48 PM on November 5, 2012

50.8% Obama, 48.8% Romney, 0.4% Other/No Vote.

304 EV for Obama, 234 EV for Romney
posted by Coffeemate at 1:50 PM on November 5, 2012

Popular Vote %:
Obama 50.3%
Romney 49.3%
Everyone Else/Lizard People 0.4%

Electoral Votes:
Obama 303
Romney 235
posted by troika at 1:50 PM on November 5, 2012

Popular Vote:
Obama 51.2%, Romney 48.4%

Electoral Vote:
Obama 290, Romney 248

Tiebreaker:
I Will Put a Fez On Joe Biden And Rub Him With Fish So My Cats Lick His Face And I Will Take Video Of This
posted by Greg Nog at 2:01 PM on November 5, 2012

"Lizard People" is going to last forever isn't it?
posted by edgeways at 2:06 PM on November 5, 2012

It'll be a dead heat by all accounts, with a recount giving it to Romney.

Just you wait.

I'd love to be wrong, though (exactly as much as I'd like a Joe Biden cutout!).
posted by Chutzler at 2:06 PM on November 5, 2012

As long as there are lizard people, there will be Lizard People.
posted by troika at 2:07 PM on November 5, 2012 [5 favorites]

Obama: 49.578%
Romney: 49.012%
Other: 1.410%

Electoral vote:
Obama: 303
Romney: 235
posted by caseusvelox at 2:23 PM on November 5, 2012

Re: saucysault's link: Obama loses popular vote by 12% AND wins EC. That would be so hella sweet.

I don't get the upside of this scenario. If anything, this would only serve to legitimize Republican attempts at obstructionism during the next four years.

If Obama is to have any effectiveness in a second term, he will need more than 50% of the popular vote in order to lay claim to a "clear-cut mandate" from the electorate, like Bush did after barely squeaking past Kerry in 2004.
posted by Atom Eyes at 2:23 PM on November 5, 2012

I don't get the upside of this scenario. If anything, this would only serve to legitimize Republican attempts at obstructionism during the next four years.

That'll happen anyway - not enough white people voted for him, or what the fuck ever. The only thing that will prevent pathetic whiny obstructionism is a GOP defeat in the midterm.
posted by Artw at 2:29 PM on November 5, 2012

(Wait my electoral college votes don't add up; I meant 304 O/ 234 R)
posted by likeatoaster at 2:32 PM on November 5, 2012

332 Obama /206 Romney

50/48/2 Vote percentages but let's be honest that shit doesn't matter.
posted by vuron at 2:38 PM on November 5, 2012

Obama 1
Romney 0

This is going to be a pitcher's duel, with Obama scoring on Biden's sacrifice fly in the bottom of the 9th.
posted by Slarty Bartfast at 2:40 PM on November 5, 2012 [18 favorites]

Obama/Biden: 332 EV 51.05%
R/R: 206 EV 47.30%
Other: 0 EV 1.65%
posted by Bukvoed at 2:44 PM on November 5, 2012

The blue team: 308 EV, 50.72395083%
The red team: 230 EV, 48.23942183%
The other team(s): 0 EV, 1.03662734%

(If I am required to round my percentages: 50.7 / 48.2 / 1.1 or 51 / 48 / 1.)
posted by andreaazure at 2:55 PM on November 5, 2012

50.7% Obama
48.1% Romney
1.2% Other

Obama 303 EV
Romney 235 EV
posted by Stynxno at 2:59 PM on November 5, 2012

332 Obama EV; 206 Romney
50.2% Obama, 48.5% Romney, 1.3% other
posted by Rumple at 3:05 PM on November 5, 2012

Obama 50.8% : 303 EV
Romney 47.9% : 235 EV
Other/Lizard 1.3% : 0 EV

Hopefully I don't jinx this election like I did when I bet against a friend in 2004. Sorry about that one everybody, I thought Kerry was a lock & needed the $10
posted by churl at 3:06 PM on November 5, 2012

I read today how wall street is financially backing Romney over Obama, by about 5:1, so it could be that all the media bombardment will work.

Is it just the president tomorrow, or is it the senate/house as well, or are they staying as they are?

I wish it wasn't, because, as the same paper as above said, Cameron would love a Romney win as Romney will be a "deficit hawk" but I think too many people believe the Republicans lies.

Romney 51.2%
Obama 47.5%
Other 1.3%

I don't know how the Electoral college works but it adds up to 538, so

Romney 275
Obama 260
Other 3

Good Luck you USAians, we're all counting on you. Christ if Romney wins, it'll be bonfire of the welfare state everywhere.
posted by marienbad at 3:09 PM on November 5, 2012

Hey you kooky foreigners: go to this website and play around with which states you think Obama and/or Romney will win. Even though the Electoral College votes add up to 538, you can't just randomly pick two numbers that add up to 538. Well, you could, but you won't have much of a shot to hit the jackpot. Pick your states, then look at the tally at the top. That will tell you how many EC votes you think each candidate will get.
posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 3:13 PM on November 5, 2012

Myself: 212 EV (55% general vote)
That Napoleon in Rags, Mr. McClellan: 12 EV

I'll show you a battleground state, Mr. Slowpoke.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 3:18 PM on November 5, 2012

Obama wins with 303 EV to Romney's 235.
Obama: 49.8%
Romney: 47.2%
Everyone else: 3.0%
posted by qnarf at 3:19 PM on November 5, 2012

Obama's EV: 308
Romney's EV: 231

POpular vote: Obama with 50.8 and ROmney 48.3, everyone else with .9.
posted by ShawnStruck at 3:35 PM on November 5, 2012

Obama takes OH, NV, CO, VA, PA, NH and good night R-money.

3003 EV's Obama. X Suckass EV's for Mitty Mitty Bang Bang.
posted by Skygazer at 3:42 PM on November 5, 2012

Thanks, (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates.

OK so using your handy predicting tool gives:

Romney 285
Obama 253

It all came down to Ohio...
posted by marienbad at 3:46 PM on November 5, 2012

Romney squeaks out a 270/268 victory, but we don't know it for days or weeks after tomorrow due to recounts and lawsuits. The relevant battleground states are Ohio and Florida.
posted by 2bucksplus at 3:52 PM on November 5, 2012 [1 favorite]

Obama 52%
Clinton 25%
Romney 23%

Shit, I hope I get it right this year. That would be so rad.
posted by heyho at 3:58 PM on November 5, 2012 [3 favorites]

ugh all the good predictions are taken. I actually think probably O303, O294, O290, O281 in that order.

but okay, for the one that counts, let's be more pessimistic: O275, R263.

Popular vote will be O: 48.5%, R 47.1%.
posted by en forme de poire at 4:05 PM on November 5, 2012

to be clear, my actual "wager" is O: 275, 48.5%, R: 263, 47.1%, EE/NV: 0, 4.4%
posted by en forme de poire at 4:06 PM on November 5, 2012

Popular vote: Obama 49.4 % / Romney 47.8% / Other 2.8 %
Electoral vote: Obama 298 / Romney 240
posted by marylynn at 4:19 PM on November 5, 2012

I think Xi Jinping will win out with 1 Hu Jintao, narrowly beating his closest competitor who will only be able to muster 0 Hu Jintaos.

Wait, which election are we predicting again?
posted by Serial Killer Slumber Party at 4:20 PM on November 5, 2012 [2 favorites]

EV: 337 Obama, 201 Romney
Pop vote: 51.2% Obama, 44.6% Romney
posted by iamkimiam at 4:27 PM on November 5, 2012

(yes, I *do* live in a fantasy land, why do you ask?)
posted by iamkimiam at 4:28 PM on November 5, 2012

Obama 306 51.4%
Romney 232, 47.9%
Others 0.7%
posted by Hardcore Poser at 4:29 PM on November 5, 2012

Not competing here but thought it is interesting to note that Intrade, which had a really impressive ability to call the 2008 election, overall and state by state, is now strongly predicting Obama wins, by a better than .5% edge in the popular vote, with 303 electoral votes.
posted by bearwife at 4:31 PM on November 5, 2012

What I think is also interesting is that Intrade is wayyy more conservative than the statistical predictions (Princeton Election Consortium, 538, Simon Jackman). If I had any money to burn...
posted by en forme de poire at 4:37 PM on November 5, 2012 [1 favorite]

Insomniac (I hate these meds) counting of things in this MetaTalk thread.

Up to and including comment 236, the score is:

MetaFilter "Nate's" predicting Obama EV win = 109 - 90.1%
MetaFilter "Karl's" predicting Romney EV win = 10 - 8.3% [A]
MetaFilter people predicting an EV tie = 2 - 1.6% [B]

A = comments 85, 123, 130, 133, 152, 174, 189, 219, 225, 226.
B = comments 64, 126.
posted by Wordshore at 4:39 PM on November 5, 2012 [1 favorite]

Although I was the second person to pick a tie, I was the only person to call a tie and actually get the EC vote count correct!! (noted for posterity . . . I want the Biden cutout)
posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 4:43 PM on November 5, 2012

What I think is also interesting is that Intrade is wayyy more conservative than the statistical predictions (Princeton Election Consortium, 538, Simon Jackman). If I had any money to burn...

Yeah, I saw Intrade's price for Obama a couple days ago (and realized I don't have money to burn/wouldn't be able to fund my account in time anyway), and it reminded me of when Vegas had BJ Penn at only 3:1 over Diego Sanchez. A rare reliable bet.
posted by ignignokt at 4:57 PM on November 5, 2012 [2 favorites]

ignignokt: There's a reason for that cheap price on Intrade. Thanks SuperPACs!
posted by Potomac Avenue at 5:03 PM on November 5, 2012 [1 favorite]

Obama will win Ohio and Virginia, Colorado will go to Romney, and Florida will end in a recount, but it won't matter. The electoral vote will go to Obama. The popular vote will be really close, but Obama will get it. Those are my predictions.
posted by Afroblanco at 5:19 PM on November 5, 2012 [1 favorite]

PA: cui bono, though?
posted by en forme de poire at 5:28 PM on November 5, 2012

Obama: 301 electoral votes; % of popular vote Obama: 51.99%
Romney: 237 electoral votes; % of popular vote Romney: 47.01%
Stein: 0 electoral votes: % of popular vote Stein: 1.00%
posted by Renoroc at 5:30 PM on November 5, 2012

Or, more succinctly :

Electoral :

Obama : 294
Romney : 244

Popular :

Obama : 51%
Romney : 48.25%
Other : 0.75%
posted by Afroblanco at 5:36 PM on November 5, 2012

Candidate - Electoral / Popular

Obama - 284 / 50.2%
Romney - 254 / 48.8%
Other - 0 / 1%
posted by Nomiconic at 5:47 PM on November 5, 2012

Pulling this out of my posterior

Popular Vote Obama 50.8% Romney 47.6% all the rest 1.6%

EV breakdown: Obama 302 Romney 236
posted by cmfletcher at 5:47 PM on November 5, 2012

Obama: 310 EV, 50.8% PV
Romney: 228 EV, 48.4% PV

There's my overly-optimistic whistling-in-the-dark prediction. I'll go back to making up snarky election-themed cocktail recipes now.
posted by KathrynT at 5:56 PM on November 5, 2012

All the good numbers are already taken...

Obama: 49.7%, 286 EV
Romney: 49.1%, 252 EV
Other: 1.2%
posted by cabingirl at 6:00 PM on November 5, 2012

Obama: 303 EV, 51.2%
Romney: 235 EV, 48%
Other: 0 EV, .8%
posted by allen.spaulding at 6:04 PM on November 5, 2012

Obama: 12 donuts.
Romney: No donuts.
posted by Skygazer at 6:09 PM on November 5, 2012 [1 favorite]

200% Obama, 0% Everybody Else, Negative Infinity % Mitt Romney

Joe Biden gets all 666 Electrical College votes.
posted by swift at 6:10 PM on November 5, 2012 [3 favorites]

Negative infinity, eh? Bold prediction, friend!
posted by Mister_A at 6:12 PM on November 5, 2012

Obama 281-49.7%
Romney 257-49.1%
Other.0.1.2%
posted by brent at 6:13 PM on November 5, 2012

Thanks to Wordshare's stats, I was inspired to see how the numbers broke down and to have something to measure against the actual results.

I omitted obvious joke entries but included jokey entries which had reasonable numbers. In cases of the user either not including the EV's for both sides or not being able to add to 538, I adjusted their entry (by adding votes to the losing side) to get the total to 538.

I only counted EV entries.

So, with 123 entries (up to and including allen.spaulding @ 6:04pm), here's the summary:

Obama: mean=304.3033, std deviation=22.2091, median=303 EV, low=243, high=347

Romney: mean=233.6557, std dev=22.21311, median=235, low=191, high= 295

Obama EV minus Romney EV: mean=70.64754, std dev=44.41974, median=68, low=-52, high=156

Now, off to study for that statistics test. Whee.
posted by honestcoyote at 6:15 PM on November 5, 2012 [4 favorites]

Obama: 51.2%, 303 EV
Romney: 47.7%, 235 EV
Other: 1.1%, 0 EV
posted by waitingtoderail at 6:20 PM on November 5, 2012

Obama: 51.1%, 307 EV
Romney: 47.5%, 231 EV
Other: 1.4%, 0 EV
posted by barnacles at 6:22 PM on November 5, 2012

Obama 328
Rommney 193

It's not a popular vote.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:25 PM on November 5, 2012 [1 favorite]

And those numbers don't add up to 538.
posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 6:30 PM on November 5, 2012

Dewey beats Truman!

Truman - 303 - 49.5%
Dewey - 189 - 45.1%
Thurmond - 0 - 2.4%


What's that? Why are you laughing?
posted by Nanukthedog at 6:34 PM on November 5, 2012

Obama: 277 - 49.1%
Romney: 261 - 49.3%
Oth: 0 - 1.6%

To be contrarian.
posted by Neale at 6:34 PM on November 5, 2012

Obama 269, 49.3%
Romney 269, 49.3%
Others 0, 1.4%

To be equitable.
posted by gubenuj at 6:41 PM on November 5, 2012

Romney: 281 - 50%
Obama: 257 - 49%

I'm thinking Ohio voters have been suppressed sufficiently for Rmoney to win there.
posted by Slackermagee at 6:41 PM on November 5, 2012

O: 51.4%
R: 47.8%
Other: .8%

O: 303 EV
R: 235 EV
Other: 0 EV

Obama takes Ohio and Pennsylvania by 4+ points, and though the networks refuse to actually say it before 8PM PST, Obama has it locked up 30 minutes after the east coast polls close. Colorado goes blue, Virginia squeaks blue by <.5% (and the GOP predictably flips out and tries to force some sort of procedural recount dickery), North Carolina flips to red but it's not enough to matter.

Please oh please oh please
posted by Mayor West at 6:42 PM on November 5, 2012 [2 favorites]

And those numbers don't add up to 538.

Forgot about Alaska. Fuck 'em.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:43 PM on November 5, 2012 [2 favorites]

O: 50.6%
R: 48.8%
Other: 0.6%

O: 293 EV
R: 243 EV
posted by meinvt at 6:49 PM on November 5, 2012

Obama 49.2
Romney 47.7
Other 3.1

Obama 303 EV
Romney 235 EV
posted by gaspode at 6:55 PM on November 5, 2012

oh man i want the giant joe biden

Obama 51.5%, 330 EV
Romney 46.5%, 208 EV
posted by insectosaurus at 7:08 PM on November 5, 2012

Popular:
O: 49.7%
R: 49.6%
Other: .7%

EV:
O: 294
R: 244
Other: 0
posted by jaksemas at 7:14 PM on November 5, 2012

O: 51%, 303 EV
R: 48%, 235 EV
posted by ancillary at 7:20 PM on November 5, 2012

O: 51.5%/332 EV
R: 47.8%/206 EV
Other: .7%
posted by carrienation at 7:23 PM on November 5, 2012

Whatever 538 is predicting right now, reversed. That's exactly the structure of every GOP lie so far. And they're going to steal it, so that's the lie they'll tell.

(so 51% R, 48% D)
((that's the popular vote. don't care about the college.))
(((take a picture of yourself packing up that hilarious Joe Biden with your vacant, hollow eyes)))
posted by clarknova at 7:25 PM on November 5, 2012

en forme, I have no idea how one would find out for sure, but my guess is that good showings on Intrade inspire confidence in some people, and some Super PAC or individual had more money than they knew what to do with.

Anecdata: I was working in an Obama for America office a couple days before the 2008 election, and I overheard people talking about buying skywriting. They said something to the effect of "use it or lose it, and we've got the other bases well-covered." So, I think something like that is at least in the outlandishness ballpark.
posted by ignignokt at 7:38 PM on November 5, 2012 [1 favorite]

Nightmare scenario.

Popular vote:

Obama: 48.6 percent
Romney: 50.4 percent
Other: 1 percent

Electoral vote:

Obama: 271
Romney: 267
posted by brina at 7:44 PM on November 5, 2012 [1 favorite]

301 Obama
237 Romney

51.5% Obama
47.9% Romney
posted by Brian B. at 7:48 PM on November 5, 2012

O: 49.4%
R: 49.0%
Other: 1.6%

O: 303 EV
R: 235 EV
posted by mazola at 7:51 PM on November 5, 2012

Obama 297, Romney 240, Other 1 (Ron Paul faithless elector).

Obama 50.7%, Romney 48.2%, Other 1.1%.
posted by rcade at 8:00 PM on November 5, 2012

http://isnatesilverawitch.com/
posted by Skygazer at 8:06 PM on November 5, 2012 [2 favorites]

O: 303, 50.8%
R: 235, 48.9%

Other: .3%
posted by spaltavian at 8:08 PM on November 5, 2012

Baker just called, so I need to revise:

Obama: 13 Donuts

Romney: O_o Donuts
posted by Skygazer at 8:10 PM on November 5, 2012

Noda will cling to power until February, when the tenth random scandal involving a DPJ minister sharing a hot tub with a member of yet another heavily tattooed, missing-finger group. An election will be called. Young people, who mostly live in large metropolitan areas will, once again, realize that the vote of a 78 year-old farmer in the furthest hinterlands is actually worth 178% of their own measley city vote, and just not vote.

The DPJ will squeak lose seats, but somehow manage to convince Ozawa's new party to join in with a large, fractious coalition. Realizing that the coalition has zero chance of doing anything (because any action it takes would alienate a member party, causing the balance of power to shift to the LDP/New Komeito alliance), and that the only possible result is gridlock ending in a loss to the LDP, the next Prime Minister will be a sacrificial lamb, and most likely be older than 70, with all the dynamic leadership potential of Shelly Levine or Hans Moleman. They will accomplish nothing.

Meanwhile, China and South Korea will capitalize on the stagnation of Japanese leadership. Nationalism will rise in Japan in response. Assholes like Ishihara and the Osaka mayor will get a bump. Life will continue to be unpleasant. The economy will continue to suck.
posted by Ghidorah at 8:22 PM on November 5, 2012 [1 favorite]

Obama 53.8% (328)
Romney 46% (193)
posted by unreasonable at 8:31 PM on November 5, 2012

After adding in the latest numbers, I discovered the collective subconscious hivemind of Metafilter has decided to send Romney a one-fingered message.
posted by honestcoyote at 8:34 PM on November 5, 2012 [3 favorites]

Subconscious?
posted by the man of twists and turns at 8:46 PM on November 5, 2012 [2 favorites]

My prediction is the 90s feel good edition:

Listen guys, however Obama wins, it doesn't matter. We all win because that crazy fascist who will do anything for a vote didn't win. And that means a lot more to me than a $50 coupon.

Cue hugs and saxophone solo...
posted by tripping daisy at 8:50 PM on November 5, 2012 [2 favorites]

Popular vote:
Obama: 51.2%
Romney: 49.8%
Everybody else: 1%

Electoral college:
Obama: 304
Romney: 234
Everybody else: 0

I have no idea what any of these numbers represent and the above is purely a wild guess mainly informed by the bottle of red wine shared with a colleague in her office while the social people were off doing Melbourne Cup things with each other.
posted by dg at 8:52 PM on November 5, 2012

Popular vote:
Obama -- 49.9%
Romney -- 49.7%
everyone else -- 0.4%

Electoral College:
Obama -- 281
Romney -- 257
Everyone Else -- 0
posted by dw at 9:03 PM on November 5, 2012

Obama - Romney - Other

 51%     47%     2%
 332     206     0

posted by nangar at 9:08 PM on November 5, 2012

I can't decide if I should put down my most optimistic or most pessimistic forecast... If the pessimistic scenario comes true, I'll have bigger problems to worry about, so here's the optimistic one:

Obama: 51% of the popular vote and 333 EVs.
Rmoney: 48% and 205 EVs.
Other: 1% and 0 EVs.

(I'm afraid Obama might drop to 291 EVs and 49% - we'll never hear the end of that, but if that's what it takes to get real electoral college reform...)
posted by RedOrGreen at 9:16 PM on November 5, 2012

Obama: 51% and 315 electoral votes
Mittens 48% and 223 electoral votes
Other: 1% and no ev
posted by The Wrong Kind of Cheese at 9:27 PM on November 5, 2012

Obama: 53% of the Beedog vote
Romney: 10% of the Beedog vote
Sting: 27% of the Beedog vote
Lil' Bow Wow: 10% of the Beedog vote
posted by Beedogs for Obama at 9:30 PM on November 5, 2012 [1 favorite]

R 48.1% 293ev
O 47.9% 245ev
Other 4% 0ev

My over under for final vote tally from Ohio is Friday.
posted by JohnnyGunn at 9:32 PM on November 5, 2012

I've no idea what electoral votes are but LET'S PLAY

Obama: 52.7% and 312
Mittens: 47.3% and 226
Other: 0%
posted by zennish at 9:34 PM on November 5, 2012

I've no idea what electoral votes are but LET'S PLAY

When a presidential candidate wins a state, they don't count the votes in a final tally, but rather the amount of congress members that state has (a minimum of three for the smallest state: two senators and one representative). A few states split the electoral votes according to a method, but most deliver them whole for the winner.
posted by Brian B. at 9:41 PM on November 5, 2012

Romney: 5
Obama: 4
posted by Tsuga at 9:45 PM on November 5, 2012 [3 favorites]

(at least that's my nightmare scenario)
posted by Tsuga at 9:45 PM on November 5, 2012 [1 favorite]

Romney: 48.1% PV x 273 EV
Obama: 47.925% PV x 265 EV
Other: 3.975% PV x 0 EV

(if this doomsday comes to pass, we won't know the official numbers until after New Year and/or a Supreme Court ruling - that prediction is a bonus)
posted by stbalbach at 9:59 PM on November 5, 2012

Here's a useful primer on our 18th-century appeasement of slave-owners the Electoral College from Al-Jazeera.
posted by scody at 10:07 PM on November 5, 2012 [3 favorites]

Obama: crowned God-Emperor
Romney: stuffed into a wicker man
posted by elizardbits

Ooo, ooo, do we get to be Ordo Hereticus? Perhaps the Cult Mechanicus?
posted by Slackermagee at 10:17 PM on November 5, 2012

Dixville Notch has voted, y'all.

SPOILER ALERT: it's a tie!
posted by lalex at 10:20 PM on November 5, 2012

Obama 51.1% 315 EV
Romney 48% 223 EV
Other: whatever's left

Romney/Paul hurt/comfort slashfic: Rule 34
posted by casarkos at 10:21 PM on November 5, 2012 [1 favorite]

All the good numbers are indeed taken. I'll take O 329 / R 209, the weird-ass scenario in which Unspeakable Ballot Tampering Horrors are committed in Ohio but it turns out not to matter. Popular vote oh I dunno what the hell let's say 51% / 58%.
posted by nebulawindphone at 10:24 PM on November 5, 2012

Wait, no, let's not say that. 51% / 48%.
posted by nebulawindphone at 10:24 PM on November 5, 2012 [1 favorite]

Obama- 51.25% - 332 EVs
Romney- 48.15% - 206 EVs
Other/None - 0.6%

Florida will be within 0.5%, but Romney will waive right to recount when Ohio comes in giving Obama more than 1.5% advantage, Wisconsin over 2.5%, and no viable path for Romney appears even with recounts. North Carolina will be within 1% but the Obama campaign will not push the issue after Romney's concession.

NBC will call the election for Obama after Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin are confirmed Obama and he is leading significantly in Iowa and Nevada after most precincts report in. FOX will not call the election until Romney concedes. At least one pundit will be going on about how Ohio will have to be a recount.

Joe Biden will make a passionate comment about kicking Romney's ass. Several newspapers will run the headline "We Kicked His Ass!" on Wednesday morning. At least one conservative columnist will use the phrase "Ass Kicks" referring to the Democratic party use of a donkey.

Paul Ryan will win his House race by the narrowest of margins.

The Senate will have few surprises. McCaskill will defeat Akin handily. Donnelly will beat Mourdock by a wider margin than anticipated. He will be the new Ben Nelson of the Senate, the single most conservative member and only moderately to the left of where Lugar was. Warren will defeat Brown in a close race. They will make a good show of civility. The most contested race will be in Montana. The initial count will be within 1,000 votes of each other and while the lawsuits will not be as intense as Coleman-Franken, we won't know who won that race for at least two weeks.

The biggest surprise of the night will be when Richard Carmona wins his Arizona Senate race. While Heidi Heitkamp winning in North Dakota would be a bigger surprise, she will lose by a modest margin due to having far too much ground to make up.

At least one liberal small circulation paper will refer to Akin and Mourdock as having been aborted.

This comment will be too late, but I will post it anyway.

In the vein of Adult Swim, my Stone Cold Lock Of The Century Of The Election is that tomorrow will be the single largest whisky and bourbon consumption day for Metafilter since November of 2010.
posted by Saydur at 10:28 PM on November 5, 2012 [8 favorites]

Oh and national voter turnout 66% and that's being optimistic.
posted by casarkos at 10:32 PM on November 5, 2012 [1 favorite]

O: 50.2%
R: 49.3%
Other: 0.5%

O: 328 EV
R: 210 EV
posted by readery at 10:40 PM on November 5, 2012

Obama 50%, 303 EV
Romney 48%, 235 EV
posted by speicus at 11:07 PM on November 5, 2012

Damn counting errors. I want to revise.

I said: 50.5% Obama, 48% Romney, 1.5% Others; 328 Obama, 210 Romney
when I meant to say:

50.5% Obama, 48% Romney, 1.5% Others
329 Obama, 209 Romney
posted by hariya at 11:11 PM on November 5, 2012

Dixville Notch has voted, y'all.
SPOILER ALERT: it's a tie!
Wait, what? They start counting votes and announcing the results before everyone has voted?
posted by dg at 11:22 PM on November 5, 2012 [1 favorite]

... the Great American Tug-of-War has begun!
posted by russilwvong at 12:03 AM on November 6, 2012

Obama: 58.4% / 332
Romney: 40.9% / 206
Other: 0.7%
posted by 0127661 at 1:27 AM on November 6, 2012

Popular vote: Obama 52.5%, 1.5% to schmoes, remainder to Romney
Electoral College: 306 Obama 232 Romney

I feel bad about using the edit function for a brain-o rather than a type-o. Mods, please don't hurt me
posted by zippy at 1:37 AM on November 6, 2012

The Dixville Notch story, from USA Today:

2:11AM EST November 6. 2012 - Maybe this will be a close election: President Obama and Mitt Romney tied in Dixville Notch, one of two tiny New Hampshire villages that get to cast the first votes of the presidential election on Election Day.

Each candidate received five votes -- the first tie in Dixville Notch history. In 2008, Obama received 15 of the 21 votes cast.

In Hart's Location, the other New Hampshire town that enjoys first-vote status, Obama won with 23 votes, Romney received 9 and Libertarian Gary Johnson received 1 vote. In 2008, Obama received 17 of the 29 votes cast.

The towns have proudly held their first-vote status since 1948.

posted by Skygazer at 1:42 AM on November 6, 2012

I'm cool as long as Bush doesn't win.
posted by johnpowell at 1:43 AM on November 6, 2012

Damn. I guess I just missed the deadline. But:

Obama: 51% pop/352 EC
Romney: 48% pop/186 EC
Others: 1% pop/0 EC
And then a strange glowing craft will rise from a meteorite crater in Dixville Notch, N.H.
posted by pracowity at 1:51 AM on November 6, 2012

My prediction is: ALL OF THEM. ALL OF THE VOTES.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 2:05 AM on November 6, 2012 [2 favorites]

Bears by 6!

Oh wait.

Obama by 3.
posted by spitbull at 2:09 AM on November 6, 2012

Dead heat in the EC because 'shenanigans'. Romney via the House. Constitutional crisis. Blood in the streets. (please, please, let me be wrong.)
posted by j_curiouser at 2:37 AM on November 6, 2012

Obama 51% 300
Romney 48% 235
Other Really, does anyone even care?
posted by cthuljew at 3:05 AM on November 6, 2012

Obama - 272 (51%)
Romney - 266 (49%)
posted by crossoverman at 3:19 AM on November 6, 2012

All predictions above this comment will be accepted. Dixville Notch voted earlier than I expected. Instead, the deadline was when Joe Biden voted in Greenville, Delaware.

When asked if this was the last time he'd vote for himself, Biden said, "No, I don't think so."

BIDEN/WARREN 2016!
posted by rcade at 5:26 AM on November 6, 2012 [2 favorites]

Blood in the streets.

There are too many good shows on television for there to be blood on the streets.
posted by rcade at 5:29 AM on November 6, 2012

Updated this to give MetaFilter figures up to comment 319.

MetaFilter "Axelrods" predicting Obama EV win = 90.4% (151)
MetaFilter "Limbaughs" predicting Romney EV win = 7.8% (13) [A]
MetaFilter people predicting an EV tie = 1.8% (3) [B]

A = comments 85, 123, 130, 133, 152, 174, 189, 219, 225, 226, 262, 291, 296.
B = comments 64, 126, 261.

This represents a slight movement towards Obama overnight in the MetaFilter community, which is in line with Nate Silver's latest Excel spreadsheet.

I'll do the final "2012: MetaFilter Decides" tally at 6pm tonight, when the first major polling station close.
posted by Wordshore at 5:35 AM on November 6, 2012 [1 favorite]

That's 6pm Easter USA time, not 6pm MetaFilter time or 6pm Her Majesty's United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland time.
posted by Wordshore at 5:43 AM on November 6, 2012

Catholic or Eastern Orthodox?
posted by hariya at 5:48 AM on November 6, 2012 [1 favorite]

Now that all of the predictions are posted, my prediction is that the election will be called at 11PM EST, but the fight over the Joe Biden cardboard cutout will drag out for weeks. After recounts, lawsuits, and an eventual Supreme Court split decision (Sotomayor abstains obviously), mathowie will unilaterally declare that the winner will be decided by a no-holds-barred fight to the death in the Thunderdome. While one mefite will eventually emerge victorious, the Joe Biden cutout will have been destroyed in the melee, teaching everyone a valuable lesson about not storing things inside the Thunderdome while there is a deathmatch going on.
posted by burnmp3s at 5:49 AM on November 6, 2012 [3 favorites]

Wordshore: Are you entering all of the predictions in a spreadsheet?
posted by rcade at 5:56 AM on November 6, 2012

Obama: crowned God-Emperor
Romney: stuffed into a wicker man

What kind of harvest do you think you're going to get with that sacrifice? Nicholas Cage was a wash, and Romney is not even Nicholas Cage.

Additionally, whatever the American Electorate says, the winner, in this case, is clearly Big Thread.
posted by GenjiandProust at 6:32 AM on November 6, 2012

Romney: stuffed into a wicker man

THE BEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSS!!!
posted by Beedogs for Obama at 7:03 AM on November 6, 2012

THE BEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSS!!!

OK, big thread and big bees. Happy now?
posted by GenjiandProust at 7:25 AM on November 6, 2012

Okay, I was sure I was getting the two confused, but I checked and Dixville and Gobbler's are both a Notch. What is it with weirdly folksy small-town rituals and Notches?
posted by nebulawindphone at 8:09 AM on November 6, 2012

My guess is the Biden cutout could also win a debate with Paul Ryan.
posted by Existential Dread at 9:23 AM on November 6, 2012 [3 favorites]

The first time MeFi did this contest, Stewart Butterfield won, and a few years later STARTED FLICKR.

Not saying one guaranteed the other, but it could happen to you too!
posted by mathowie (staff) at 10:46 AM on November 6, 2012 [9 favorites]

Obama: 49.8
Romney: 47.3
NOTA: 2.9

If I'm incorrect then it's indisputable proof that I didn't fix the results DO YOU HEAR THAT FEC AND FBI IT WASN'T ME
posted by item at 10:59 AM on November 6, 2012

but it could happen to you too!

If I'd known that, I'd have entered!

As it was, I just don't have anywhere to put a life-size Joe Biden.
posted by philipy at 11:02 AM on November 6, 2012 [1 favorite]

The first time MeFi did this contest, Stewart Butterfield won, and a few years later STARTED FLICKR.

Not saying one guaranteed the other, but it could happen to you too!

Someone create a porn site, call it Quickr!
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 11:08 AM on November 6, 2012

Looks like a lot of people are going with an Obama win at 303. This is not suprising; this map would be Obama's 2008 win minus North Carolina, Florida, Indiana and the Nebraska 2nd. Romney leads or is deadlocked in all of those places. I would think the next most likely result is Obama with 332 by pulling off a win in Florida (538 gives Obama a 50.2% chance in Florida.)

The mostly likely scenario for a Romeny win, in my view, would give him 275 votes. This would involve 1) he wins the Florida coin flip, 2) a systemic error in Ohio polls giving him a narrow win there and 3) come from behind wins in Virgina and Colorado.
posted by spaltavian at 11:36 AM on November 6, 2012

Popular: 50.1% BO - 48.9% MR - 1.0% Other

Electoral: 290 BO - 248 MR
posted by yeti at 12:26 PM on November 6, 2012

Popular Vote: Obama 50.4%, Romney 48.9%, Others 0.7%

Electoral Vote: Obama 303, Romney 235
posted by Cash4Lead at 12:47 PM on November 6, 2012 [1 favorite]

%
Obama: 50.1
Romney: 49.3
Everyone Else: 0.6


EC
Obama: 290
Rom: 258
posted by cman at 12:49 PM on November 6, 2012

Came here for the 1% that were voting for Roseanne Barr.

Left disappointed. (Clearly those who wish not to be blessed with the Biden doth protest too much)
posted by Blue_Villain at 12:54 PM on November 6, 2012

Someone create a porn site, call it Quickr!

Fuckr, surely.
posted by crossoverman at 1:14 PM on November 6, 2012

MetaFilter calls it for Obama

With the first major polling station closures, MetaFilter users have overwhelmingly predicted that Mr Barack Obama will win a majority of the Electoral College Votes. The figures:

MetaFilter "Bidens" predicting Obama EV win = 90.6% (154 predictions)
MetaFilter "Ryans" predicting Romney EV win = 7.6% (13 predictions) [A]
MetaFilter people predicting an EV tie = 1.8% (3 predictions) [B]

A = comments 85, 123, 130, 133, 152, 174, 189, 219, 225, 226, 262, 291, 296.
B = comments 64, 126, 261.
posted by Wordshore at 3:07 PM on November 6, 2012 [2 favorites]

Ok, my bet is the Canada Party wins 100% of the ridings.

But only after winning are they called ridings. Until then they are called whatever americans call them.
posted by chapps at 3:43 PM on November 6, 2012 [1 favorite]

Someone create a porn site, call it Quickr!
Finally, a porn site that bears some resemblance to my own sex life!
posted by dg at 6:07 PM on November 6, 2012

Fortunately for me, I bet on Nate Silver across the board with real money. Sad I didn't just go with him exactly for this too. Congrats Cortex!
posted by Potomac Avenue at 6:41 AM on November 7, 2012

I'd like to update my prediction given the results of the election.
posted by leotrotsky at 8:21 AM on November 7, 2012 [4 favorites]

Florida is going to come through with an official count very soon now that gives the state's votes to President Obama, too. Yay!

So glad everyone went to all the trouble (and they made it damned troublesome) to wait in line and vote here, and thankful for the volunteers, especially those who stayed on to make sure everyone in line at closing time was able to vote.
posted by misha at 12:06 PM on November 7, 2012

Florida is going to come through with an official count very soon now that gives the state's votes to President Obama, too. Yay!

But that's not what I guessed :( Is it sad to hope Mitt Romney gets them to keep myself in the running? Yes? Ok.
posted by ThePinkSuperhero at 3:47 PM on November 7, 2012 [1 favorite]

I have been driving myself crazy trying to figure out how my prediction of 341 was off by 9 from the final result because I was sure that I'd nailed all the states exactly right.

I had. Except that in using the tool at 270towin, I'd accidentally made South Carolina blue and not realized it. :(
posted by MCMikeNamara at 7:53 AM on November 8, 2012

And speaking of, the Romney campaign has conceded Florida, so congrats to everyone who had 332 (like I should have)

I mentioned this in another thread, but I made a deal with the universe as the presidential motorcade went by on Tuesday that if Obama won all the states I thought he would, that I'd quit smoking immediately. (I saw the motorcade because I had gone downstairs to smoke.) So even though I put 341 in my guess, I meant that deal to mean that he'd win all the states I thought he'd win, so despite the fact that I could get really rules-lawyery about how I phrased it earlier, I don't think you should get rules-lawyery with the universe when the other option is increased cancer risk.

What I'm saying is, I'm about 18 hours into quitting nicotine cold turkey (again) so apologies if I get snippy around here. (It probably just means I won't be commenting as much.)
posted by MCMikeNamara at 12:51 PM on November 8, 2012 [9 favorites]

Let's see: everyone with Obama 332 and Obama/Romney/Others popular vote predictions (a percentage in italics is calculated, because it was not directly specified) before Dixville Notch reported results:

onya: 49/48/3
ersatz: 51.3/48.5/0.2
showbiz_liz: 50.9/47.4/1.7
I am the Walrus: 50.8/48.1/1.1
Ironmouth: 51/48/1
localhuman: 50.2/49.6/0.2
UrineSoakedRube: 50.9/48.0/1.1
JKevinKing: 50.75/47.75/1.5
vuron: 50/48/2
Bukvoed: 51.05/47.30/1.65
Rumple: 50.2/48.5/1.3
carrienation: 51.5/47.8/0.7
nangar: 51/47/2
Saydur: 51.25/48.15/0.6
0127661: 58.4/40.9/0.7

Let me know if I missed anyone.
posted by UrineSoakedRube at 1:42 PM on November 8, 2012

I think I went too high on the third parties, but still. Thanks, Nate Silver!
posted by showbiz_liz at 1:50 PM on November 8, 2012

Note that I just looked at Nate Silver's highest outcome and went with that. Its been 332-206 for months.
posted by Ironmouth at 2:26 PM on November 8, 2012

Ironmouth> Note that I just looked at Nate Silver's highest outcome and went with that. Its been 332-206 for months.

Just to clarify: highest probability outcome (as in occurring most often in the multiple runs of his simulations). He did have NC and FL change several times as to lean blue or lean red. His final leans gave 332.

Incidentally, Google Elections gives the percentages as 50.5/48.0/1.5; absentee and provisional ballots probably won't change these values much, as these values have only changed about 0.1% in the past day. I assume this means that JKevinKing is the winner, but I'll leave it to Rogers Cadenhead to make a declaration and open the floor for gloating.
posted by UrineSoakedRube at 3:32 PM on November 8, 2012

I still hold out hope for North Carolina to magically flip for Obama.
posted by humanfont at 7:17 PM on November 8, 2012 [3 favorites]

Is there a porn site called cum.com? And if not, why not?
posted by Paul Slade at 4:47 AM on November 9, 2012

With webcams hosted on cam.cum.com...
posted by nebulawindphone at 8:29 AM on November 9, 2012 [1 favorite]

...and cem.cam.cum.com for Ottoman history cosplay fetishists...
posted by nebulawindphone at 8:31 AM on November 9, 2012 [1 favorite]

I'm working on the contest results using 332 EVs for Obama, 206 for Romney, 0 others; 50.5% Obama, 48.0% Romney, 1.5% others. When that's done I'll see if faithless electors or a potential percentage shift could alter the outcome.
posted by rcade at 9:23 AM on November 9, 2012

Incidentally, Google Elections gives the percentages as 50.5/48.0/1.5; absentee and provisional ballots probably won't change these values much, as these values have only changed about 0.1% in the past day. I assume this means that JKevinKing is the winner, but I'll leave it to Rogers Cadenhead to make a declaration and open the floor for gloating.

30% of California is still out, 45% of Washington State, 25% of Oregon and 14% of New York. There are millions more non-provisional ballots to be counted and with every one, Obama's lead will grow.
posted by Ironmouth at 11:39 AM on November 9, 2012

Ironmouth> 30% of California is still out, 45% of Washington State, 25% of Oregon and 14% of New York. There are millions more non-provisional ballots to be counted and with every one, Obama's lead will grow.

I didn't know the West Coast numbers were so low (New York isn't surprising, for obvious reasons). Still looks good for JKevinKing, but I guess we'll see in a few weeks.
posted by UrineSoakedRube at 2:22 PM on November 9, 2012

/adds "2012: Outpredicted Karl Rove" in CV.
posted by ersatz at 4:41 AM on November 10, 2012 [3 favorites]

This site seems to have real-time results as they come in. Right now, 50.5 for Obama and 47.9 for Romney. Also interesting to note is that Florida shows more and more separation for Obama as remaining ballots come in.
posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 10:00 AM on November 10, 2012

332 to 206, says AP.
posted by brina at 10:17 AM on November 10, 2012

brina, your link redirects to some survey site for me. Here's the WaPo post of AP's Florida results.
posted by filthy light thief at 12:59 PM on November 10, 2012

showbiz_liz> I think I went too high on the third parties, but still. Thanks, Nate Silver!

As of now, the popular vote is at 50.80%/47.50%/1.70% (source). I'm not sure what formula Rogers Cadenhead will use to determine the winner, but it seems as if you're now ahead of Bukvoed and JKevinKing.
posted by UrineSoakedRube at 12:13 PM on November 23, 2012 [1 favorite]

By the way,Romney just dropped to 47.49 on that spreadsheet. That's from Larry Sabato's site, if I'm not mistaken. Most people would call this a 51%-47 win now.
posted by Ironmouth at 9:34 AM on November 26, 2012

I feel so Al Gore right now
posted by showbiz_liz at 9:48 AM on November 26, 2012