MetaFilter 2016 Election Prediction Demolition Derby January 31, 2016 12:38 PM   Subscribe

It's been an unbelievably unpredictable primary season this year, and the Iowa caucuses are less than 30 hours away. So why not get ahead of the curve with a TRUMP-SIZED election prediction contest? I'm thinking Iowa (Dem/GOP), New Hampshire (Dem/GOP), Super Tuesday (Dem/GOP), final nominee (Dem/GOP), and general election winner, with ties broken by House/Senate control, Veepstakes speculation, and as much analysis/rationalization/weeping as you feel appropriate. Prize: One (1) $50 ($fifty) donation to the charity of your choice (split equally if necessary), and eternal bragging rights over the ruins of the punditocracy. Deadline is 8:00 PM Eastern time Monday, when the caucuses start. (Feel free to enter after Iowa or New Hampshire vote, but be advised that your prediction for those states will not count!) See inside for entry form.

Please copy-paste for easier tabulation:
<b>USERNAME — </b>
<b>IOWA DEM — </b>
<b>IOWA GOP — </b>
<b>NH DEM — </b>
<b>NH GOP — </b>
<b>SUPER TUESDAY DEM — </b>
<b>SUPER TUESDAY GOP — </b>
<b>DEM NOMINEE — </b>
<b>GOP NOMINEE — </b>
<b>FINAL WINNER — </b>

<b>HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — </b>
<b>SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — </b>
<b>DEM VP — </b>
<b>GOP VP — </b>

<b>ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — </b>

Previous presidential prognostications:
2000 (results)
2004 (results)
2006 midterms (results)
2008 (results)
2008 - Canadian edition (results)
2012 (results)
posted by Rhaomi to MetaFilter-Related at 12:38 PM (147 comments total) 9 users marked this as a favorite

USERNAME — 0xFCAF
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Trump
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Trump
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
DEM VP — Julian Castro
GOP VP — Kasich

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — All of the above.

Seriously though, I'm just taking the top bets from the prediction markets, because that's what Nate Silver would do. My personal belief is that a brokered convention chooses Rubio, though that's just mostly wishful thinking because I can't even entertain the idea that Trump will be nominated, let alone elected.
posted by 0xFCAF at 12:57 PM on January 31, 2016 [1 favorite]


USERNAME — Rangi
IOWA DEM — Hillary Clinton
IOWA GOP — Donald Trump
NH DEM — Bernie Sanders
NH GOP — Donald Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Hillary Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Donald Trump
DEM NOMINEE — Hillary Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Donald Trump
FINAL WINNER — Hillary Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — Republican
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Republican
DEM VP — Julián Castro
GOP VP — Ted Cruz

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — I'm going off of PredictWise's figures for the primaries. For the party nominees, the only real Democratic choices are Clinton or Sanders, and I think an experienced Secretary of State with a familiar name will be more popular than someone vulnerable to being called a socialist. Months ago I thought Jeb! would be the Republican nominee for the same reason, brand recognition, but he's doing badly now; and this RealClearPolitics article makes a good case for Trump. I don't know enough about the House and Senate dynamics to make an informed prediction, so the safe bet is whatever's already the case (Republican majorities). As for VP picks, I have no idea, though I do expect Trump to pick someone more appealing to party conservatives instead of his own base.
posted by Rangi at 1:00 PM on January 31, 2016


USERNAME — gerryblog
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Trump
DEM NOMINEE — Biden
GOP NOMINEE — Trump
FINAL WINNER — Biden

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
DEM VP — Elizabeth Warren
GOP VP — Sarah Palin

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — Since the points don't matter I'll take "Clinton gets indicted and/or forced out after mass resignations at the FBI" just so it's in the mix. Part of me thinks I should take "brokered convention shenanigans lead to Romney" too but it seems like the party has actually committed itself to Trump at this point, come hell or high water.
posted by gerryblog at 1:01 PM on January 31, 2016 [4 favorites]


I have no idea who the winner will be, but I'm pretty sure all Americans will be the losers.
posted by eriko at 1:10 PM on January 31, 2016 [23 favorites]


But wait! There's no place to enter Mr. Michael Bloomberg running as a third party candidate! And if Mr. Donald Trump doesn't get the GOP nomination, Trump running as a fourth party candidate! Maximum improbability! Expect the unexpected!
posted by Sir Rinse at 1:10 PM on January 31, 2016 [2 favorites]


USERNAME — ArbitraryandCapricious
IOWA DEM — Clinton by a hair
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Trump
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Trump
FINAL WINNER — Clinton (God, I hope it's not Trump)

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Democrat
DEM VP — I have no idea
GOP VP — Jeff Probst

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — I still think there's a good chance that Trump is going to die in a mysterious, convenient accident, clearing the way for the nominee whom the Republicans actually want.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 1:15 PM on January 31, 2016 [3 favorites]


USERNAME — kimberussell
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Rubio
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Trump
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — Republican
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Republican
DEM VP — Bernie Sanders
GOP VP — Nikki Haley

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — Rubio takes Super Tuesday but Trump takes the rest. There will be money, bribery, and weeping to get Sanders on Clinton's ticket. Nikki Haley is Southern-ish and attractive-ish enough to catch Trump's eye. Read that as you will.
posted by kimberussell at 1:18 PM on January 31, 2016


USERNAME — Roger Dodger
IOWA DEM — Hillary Clinton
IOWA GOP — Ted Cruz
*In intervening days, email scandal finally matters*
NH DEM — Bernie Sanders
NH GOP — John Kasich
*Trump, Cruz implode, Republicans come to their senses*
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Sanders
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Rubio
DEM NOMINEE — Sanders
GOP NOMINEE — Rubio
FINAL WINNER — Sanders

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Dem
DEM VP — Elizabeth Warren
GOP VP — Kasich

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — Predict the world you'd like to see.
posted by Roger Dodger at 1:27 PM on January 31, 2016 [6 favorites]


USERNAME — quidnunc kid
ETC — see #1
posted by the quidnunc kid at 1:38 PM on January 31, 2016 [90 favorites]


I ate the paste
posted by clavdivs at 1:46 PM on January 31, 2016 [4 favorites]


USERNAME — dersins
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Rubio
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Rubio
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Rubio
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — Republican
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Republican
DEM VP — Sanders
GOP VP — Kasich

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — I used my Tardis. Is that cheating?
posted by dersins at 1:55 PM on January 31, 2016


USERNAME — octothorpe
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Cruz
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Trump
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Trump
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — Republican
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Democratic
DEM VP — Cory Booker
GOP VP — Rubio

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — I put Clinton in as the eventual winner because my brain just won't acknowledge the possibility of Trump winning.
posted by octothorpe at 2:45 PM on January 31, 2016 [1 favorite]


USERNAME — Pater Aletheias
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Sanders
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Trump
DEM NOMINEE — Sanders
GOP NOMINEE — Trump
FINAL WINNER — Sanders

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — Republican
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Republican
DEM VP — O'Malley
GOP VP — Huckabee

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — Clinton has the lead right now, but I think Sanders basically has the same path to the nomination that Obama took--excite younger voters with promise of something new, lay out some popular proposals (free college, etc.), that can rally the base, show that he was right on the Iraq War when Clinton was wrong. Then he picks up a few early primaries to show that he's a viable alternative, and momentum shifts his way. A Sanders nomination is much more likely than it looked a few months ago. Yes, he has the socialist label, but I think that is significantly countered by the reality that the GOP has called every Dem, especially Obama, "socialist" for the past eight years. That word has been defanged. It's hard for them to now say "No, but this one is really, really a socialist!" Too late, dudes. No idea who Sanders would pick for VP, but O'Malley wants it and he'd be a solid choice.

It's getting harder and harder to see how anyone but Trump gets the GOP nomination. He's been leading for months. The party, even Fox News, is fighting hard against Ted Cruz, who seemed like the second most likely bet. At the same time, they are making peace with the idea of Trump as their nominee, at least in some circles. Rubio is flaming out; JEB is toast; Christie is barely there. Unless they winnow the field quickly to one plausible anti-Trump, the Donald is getting the nomination. No idea who he would pick as VP, but I think he wants to play up his evangelical cred, and Huckabee just appeared with him at the Trump rally for vets thing, so that's my guess. Huck has been increasingingly radical since he first appeared on the national scene, to the point where he would fit in with a Trump administration.
posted by Pater Aletheias at 2:52 PM on January 31, 2016 [2 favorites]


USERNAME — Room 641-A
IOWA DEM — Sanders
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Sanders
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Trump
DEM NOMINEE — Sanders
GOP NOMINEE — Trump
FINAL WINNER — Sanders

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — Republican
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Democrat
DEM VP — Elizabeth Warren
GOP VP — Ben Carson

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — Maybe this really will be "outsider" election, and a Sanders win is the only way I get to add Elizabeth Warren to the list.
posted by Room 641-A at 3:08 PM on January 31, 2016 [3 favorites]


Elizabeth Warren needs to stay right where she is, so that she can keep doing good.
posted by tzikeh at 3:10 PM on January 31, 2016 [12 favorites]


USERNAME — gsteff
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Cruz
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Cruz
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Cruz
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Dem
DEM VP — Sherrod Brown
GOP VP — Fiorina

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING —

Trump is not actually competent at running organizations and has the least reliable supporters, so he'll underperform in Iowa. Rubio will also underperform, turning it into a two man race, which Trump will do much worse at, and in which Cruz consolidates the non-Trump support. He'll win, then pick Fiorina as running mate to attempt to blunt Clinton's advantage among women.

On the dem side, Sanders doesn't have and has never had the slightest chance due to Clinton's superdelegate dominance (superdelegates are roughly 20% of Dem delegates). She'll pick Sherrod Brown as running mate, because she'll want someone she's worked with before, who will be acceptable to Sanders supporters and help with the most important state. She wins the election in a historic blowout that again causes the Dems to win more popular votes in aggregated House races, but still lose the chamber due to inefficient vote distribution.
posted by gsteff at 3:14 PM on January 31, 2016 [3 favorites]


I'm just praying Sanders will win Iowa. It could give him the momentum he needs, as it did for Obama, back when Hillary was inevitable in 2008.
And yes, if he gets the nomination, the Republicans will attack him for being a socialist. And he'll stand up and say "You're God damn right I'm a socialist, and here's why, and if you have a problem with it, you need to take a good long look in the mirror, because you're why we can't have nice things in this country!"
Sorry...I'm just feeling the Bern pretty hard lately.
posted by uosuaq at 3:16 PM on January 31, 2016 [5 favorites]


Elizabeth Warren needs to stay right where she is, so that she can keep doing good.

I agree that it would be a loss to the Senate, but she would unite and excite the base like no one else could, and could bring enough disgruntled Dems to the voting booth to make the difference between a win and a loss in a close race. This is also the fastest way to President Warren.
posted by Room 641-A at 3:24 PM on January 31, 2016 [1 favorite]


USERNAME — sallybrown
IOWA DEM — Sanders
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Trump
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Trump
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Democrats
DEM VP — Julián Castro
GOP VP — Omarosa Manigault (YES I DID)

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — ready to drive around blasting "Run the World (Girls)" next November. my soft spot for underdogs would love a Bernie nomination or a Clinton/Sanders ticket but I just don't see it.
posted by sallybrown at 3:31 PM on January 31, 2016 [3 favorites]


Elizabeth Warren needs to stay right where she is, so that she can keep doing good.

Elizabeth Warren needs to get appointed Secretary of the Treasury
posted by showbiz_liz at 3:37 PM on January 31, 2016 [9 favorites]


USERNAME — equalpants
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Rubio
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Rubio
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — R
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — D
DEM VP — Cory Booker
GOP VP — Nikki Haley

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — There will be plenty on all sides but lord I hope the Trump brownshirts are weeping the most. Can't wait to see them bawling their eyes out on CNN.
posted by equalpants at 3:38 PM on January 31, 2016 [1 favorite]


DEM NOMINEE — Limberbutt McCubbins
GOP NOMINEE — Vincent Adultman (Bojack Horseman)
FINAL WINNER — Limberbutt McCubbins

DEM VP — Deez Nuts
GOP VP — An underwatered fern

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING —
(´;︵;`)
posted by sylvanshine at 3:42 PM on January 31, 2016 [7 favorites]


PRESIDENT
homunculus


VICE PRESIDENT
a lungful of dragon


ANALYSIS
Dreaming is free.
posted by four panels at 4:00 PM on January 31, 2016


USERNAME — You
IOWA — Denial
NH — Anger
SUPER TUESDAY — Bargaining
NOMINEES — Depression
FINAL WINNER — Acceptance

ANALYSIS — Begin your day with healthful choices. Climb a stair and listen to the voices.
posted by Freelance Demiurge at 4:22 PM on January 31, 2016 [21 favorites]


sylvanshine, Limberbutt McCubbins is British and therefore even less eligible than Ted Cruz, and anyway, he's busy filming the next season of Sherlock.
posted by uosuaq at 4:23 PM on January 31, 2016 [1 favorite]


USERNAME — double block and bleed
IOWA DEM — Sanders
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Trump
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Trump
FINAL WINNER — Trump

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — Republican
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Republican
DEM VP — O'Malley
GOP VP — Santorum

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — Welcome to the cyberpunk future. Sorry there's no flying cars. I don't have time to analyze. I have a bomb shelter to build and food, water, and supplies to stockpile. It was nice knowing all of you.
posted by double block and bleed at 5:05 PM on January 31, 2016 [5 favorites]


USERNAME — Drinky Die
IOWA DEM — Hillary
IOWA GOP — Cruz
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Hillary
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Trump
DEM NOMINEE — Hillary
GOP NOMINEE — Trump
FINAL WINNER — Hillary

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — Rep
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Rep
DEM VP — Julian Castro
GOP VP — Marco Rubio

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — This could all fall apart in Iowa if Trump does lose and defeat pops the bubble that tricks people into thinking he is a winner. If so, Rubio is in the game but I think we end up with Cruz in that scenario. Trump still feels most likely to me, but I'm far from sure. Hillary I'm sure about.
posted by Drinky Die at 5:11 PM on January 31, 2016 [1 favorite]


USERNAME — AugustWest
IOWA DEM — Sanders
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Rubio
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Rubio
DEM NOMINEE — Sanders
GOP NOMINEE — Rubio
FINAL WINNER — Rubio

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — Republican
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Republican
DEM VP — No Idea, but young from California or young from midwest.
GOP VP — Walker

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — No weeping. I think Clinton is forced to withdraw either for health reasons or email. If she says health reasons, it is email. If she says email it is health related. Sanders has proven to be a good alternative to the establishment Clinton. If you are a democrat, how can you not vote for a little old Jewish man from Brooklyn (who reminds me of my grandfather)? I happen to think Trump doesn't actually want the job and will also bow out in some way after getting concessions from the Republican party to have at least two insane ideas on the platform. I'm not even sure Trump can get a security clearance high enough to see the intel he needs to be President.
posted by AugustWest at 5:14 PM on January 31, 2016


"Let the Games of the 57th Quadrennial Elections for President of the United States begin!"

*grabs enough popcorn to last the next 280 days*
posted by crossoverman at 5:14 PM on January 31, 2016 [3 favorites]


DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Trump
FINAL WINNER — Wacka Flocka Flame
posted by Itaxpica at 5:22 PM on January 31, 2016


USERNAME — anotherpanacea
IOWA DEM — Sanders
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Cruz
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Rubio
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Rubio
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
DEM VP — Castro
GOP VP — Kasich

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — Establishment will hold on. The party decides.
posted by anotherpanacea at 5:25 PM on January 31, 2016


USERNAME — Etrigan
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Cruz
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Trump
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Trump
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — Republican
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Republican
DEM VP — Locke
GOP VP — Haley

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — Mostly just spitballin'.
posted by Etrigan at 5:40 PM on January 31, 2016


USERNAME — duffell
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Cruz
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Cruz
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Cruz
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — Republican
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Republican
DEM VP — Julian Castro
GOP VP — Carly Fiorina

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — I mean, they're all guesses at this point. A lot can happen between now and the conventions. But I do believe that Trump's support is going to collapse, and when it does, it'll happen fast. I also believe that a lot of Sanders supporters aren't going to bother to show up to vote if Clinton is nominated--not even for House and Senate races (which are the races that will really determine whether a president is able to get anything done). The broad prediction is that a Democrat wins the White House and is able to accomplish next to nothing because Republicans will control the legislature. Meet the new bosses, same as the old bosses.
posted by duffell at 6:01 PM on January 31, 2016


USERNAME — Eyebrows McGee
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Rubio
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Rubio
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
DEM VP — Julian Castro
GOP VP — Bruce Rauner

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — My gut kinda says Vilsack over Castro but Vilsack just doesn't bring a very balanced ticket. Bruce Rauner is CLEARLY running for the VP nod on the GOP side and positioning himself with policy in IL and staying clean w/r/t the scrum of the primary so he'll be a nice blank candidate when a frontrunner emerges. Might be a long shot but if I'm right I'll kick everyone else's butt.
posted by Eyebrows McGee (staff) at 6:40 PM on January 31, 2016 [1 favorite]


USERNAME- Clavdivs
IOWA DEM-Clinton
IOWA GOP-Cruz
NH DEM-Sanders
NH GOP-Cruz
SUPER TUESDAY DEM-Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP-Cruz
DEM NOMINEE-Clinton
GOP NOMINEE-Cruz
FINAL WINNER-Cruz

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY-GOP
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY-DEM
DEM VP-Salazar
GOP VP-Carson

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — all the above. I'm ruling out Castro as the Clintons have had a bad track record with a previous HUD secretary from Texas.
posted by clavdivs at 7:11 PM on January 31, 2016 [1 favorite]


USERNAME — Joseph Gurl
IOWA DEM — John Gilmore
IOWA GOP — Rahsaan Roland Kirk
NH DEM — Julio Cortazar
NH GOP — Otomo Yoshihide
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Blaster Al Ackerman
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — JoJo Hiroshige
DEM NOMINEE — Ju Suk Reet Meate
GOP NOMINEE — Valerie Solanas
FINAL WINNER — John W. Shattuck

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — Nation of Islam
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — The Ant Hill Kids
DEM VP — Father Yod
GOP VP — Daveed Diggs
posted by Joseph Gurl at 7:43 PM on January 31, 2016


USERNAME — teponaztli
IOWA DEM — Sanders
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Clinton
NH GOP — Rubio
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Rubio
DEM NOMINEE — Kang
GOP NOMINEE — Kodos
FINAL WINNER — Kang

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — Either way, your planet is doomed...
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — DOOMED!
DEM VP — None
GOP VP — None

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — I think Clinton's policy positions are actually much more solid than she gets credit for, but she's not very good at being a politician in the sense of interacting with the public. She just doesn't seem to know how to make herself likable or at all relatable. Rubio, on the other hand, holds some terrible positions, but might be a little more personable. It's a tough call either way. I am a huge Sanders fan, but I think even he isn't expecting to win too much. With him eliminated, Clinton will try to tack more center-right, as the Democrats often do when they feel the slightest bit threatened, and it will shoot her in the foot because she'll wind up coming across as more opportunistic and less principled than even Rubio. Still, Rubio is not exactly a wonderful candidate, either. He looks more professional than the rest of the Republicans, but that's a really, really low bar.
posted by teponaztli at 7:47 PM on January 31, 2016 [1 favorite]


fizzix
clinton
Trump
sanders
Rubio
Clinton
Rubio
Clinton
Rubio
Rubio

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY R
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY D
DEM VP - (Wesley) Clark
GOP VP — Haley

I'd love to be proven wrong.
posted by fizzix at 8:32 PM on January 31, 2016


ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — And now was acknowledged the presence of the Red Death. He had come like a thief in the night. And one by one dropped the revellers in the blood-bedewed halls of their revel, and died each in the despairing posture of his fall. And the life of the ebony clock went out with that of the last of the gay. And the flames of the tripods expired. And Darkness and Decay and the Red Death held illimitable dominion over all.
posted by save alive nothing that breatheth at 8:34 PM on January 31, 2016 [3 favorites]




Stay tuned kids and remember to watch for the big giveaway!
posted by clavdivs at 8:56 PM on January 31, 2016


USERNAME — Going To Maine
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Rubio
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Rubio
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — ?
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — ?
DEM VP — Julian Castro
GOP VP — Susana Martinez

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING538 and Ann Selzer for the primaries, random guesses for the rest.
posted by Going To Maine at 11:51 PM on January 31, 2016


USERNAME — zippy
IOWA DEM — Sanders
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Sanders
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Trump
DEM NOMINEE — Sanders
GOP NOMINEE — Trump
FINAL WINNER — Sanders

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — Dem
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Repub
DEM VP — Warren
GOP VP — Palin

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — I think Sanders has a decent shot at Iowa, and a serious chance in NH. If he takes those I think Clinton will have a hard fight ahead. Trump will be the republican nominee and good luck with that, Republican party.
posted by zippy at 12:20 AM on February 1, 2016 [1 favorite]


USERNAME — FJT
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM —Sanders
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Trump
DEM NOMINEE — Sanders
GOP NOMINEE — Trump
FINAL WINNER — Trump

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
DEM VP — Tulsi Gabbard
GOP VP — Marco Rubio

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — This is total fantasy political drama, but if I'm gonna guess about both the VP and the winner of the general, I might as well have a little fun with it, right?

So, I think the mood of the country can be captured in two phrases:
1) "reject the establishment"
2) "f*** the other side up".

Yes, Clinton wins Iowa, but Sanders is so close and as a result gets the majority of national media coverage. Americans are actually paying attention to the race at this point, and likes what they learn about Sanders that he manages to sweep the remaining Dem races.

In the general, Trump blunts Sanders' appeal by basically agreeing with him that the American people deserve a fair shake. Trump starts wooing American workers with promises of protectionist measures, more infrastructure, and better border security. And he also "softens" a bit on his anti-immigrant stance, by saying all undocumented immigrants will be given time to make arrangements here and be "humanely" deported.

Sanders runs a good campaign, but is caught in an awkward position of having to be both a continuation of Obama's policies, yet remain an anti-establishment force. He never quite escapes this contradiction, even after distancing himself from Obama (Obama's own approval ratings towards the end doesn't help either).
posted by FJT at 1:16 AM on February 1, 2016 [2 favorites]


USERNAME — Huffy Puffy
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Cruz
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Trump
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Dems (tiebreaker)
DEM VP — Al Franken
GOP VP — Kasich

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — I wanted to put Cruz in as VP candidate, but then I remembered that at some point Republican leaders would need to campaign for, or at least vote for ticket, and in a possibly-close convention the Maximum Asshol Alienation strategy doesn't work. (As much as I'd enjoy watching the GOP senators lose their will to live at the prospect of President of the Senate Ted Cruz.) I also assume Hillary is unable to convince Diamond Joe to stick around for another term or two.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 4:54 AM on February 1, 2016


USERNAME — Benway
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Trump
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Cruz
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — Republican
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Democrats
DEM VP — Sanders
GOP VP — Palin

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — Due to Trump's disdain for anything rational, the GOP tries to save face and nominates Ted Cruz. Cruz chooses Sarah Palin as his running mate, to try to lure the female vote, ala McCain. Trump runs as a third party and splits the Repub vote, thus clearing the way for a decisive Clinton victory.
posted by Benway at 6:38 AM on February 1, 2016 [1 favorite]


USERNAME — graymouser
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Cruz
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Cruz
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — Democrat
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Republican
DEM VP — O'Malley
GOP VP — Rubio

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — Sanders can't pull it off in Iowa and his disadvantage in states outside of New England slams him by Super Tuesday. The turning point is South Carolina which Clinton wins handily, and Clinton wins a decisive advantage. Trump wins the first two primaries / caucuses on sheer personality and the GOP goes into a panic but is unable to anoint Rubio in time. Trump's high negatives eat him alive (he is unable to expand beyond his current band of support) and Cruz is the only person in position to take advantage. This does him no good in the general as Clinton tacks to the center, while Republicans go into frothing fits of rage but are unable to convince middle America to buy Ted Cruz. Gerrymandering keeps the House a near 50/50 split but just in favor of the Dems, leaving the balance of power in the Senate.
posted by graymouser at 7:06 AM on February 1, 2016 [1 favorite]


USERNAME — zarq
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Cruz
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Trump
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Rubio
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Democrats
DEM VP — Castro
GOP VP — Haley

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING —
I think it's still way too early to make accurate predictions, but this is a fun exercise. Keeping in mind the dangers of tempting fate....

In 2008, John McCain won no Republican primaries through Super Tuesday. But he became the GOP nominee thanks in part to 14 states with open primaries, which allow moderates and independent voters to cast their ballots for a party's nominee, without being one of its registered members. Before he chose Palin to be his running mate, McCain was a far more palatable choice to folks on the fence than Romney or Huckabee.

Open primaries provide an opportunity and possible point of voter manipulation for candidates. In Mississippi in 2014, Senator Thad Cochran won the Republican primary runoff against Republican state Senator Chris McDaniel. Before the runoff, Cochran begged African American Mississippians (who traditionally overwhelmingly vote Democrat) to cross party lines and vote for him in the state primary. Voter turnout in majority-African American districts exploded.

Back in '08, activists on both sides asked their own bases to vote in the other party's primary, and choose the candidate they thought their party's candidate was more likely to defeat. The most well-known is Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos," which asked his dittoheads to vote for candidate Clinton (who was in the middle of losing eleven straight primary contests to Barack Obama,) in the hope that they could prevent Obama from clinching the nomination early and wooing Clinton's funders and superdelegates. At the time Limbaugh -- predictably -- declared that it had worked. Clinton won the Texas and Indiana primaries thanks to support from traditionally Republican districts.

Limbaugh's already raising the specter of "Operation Chaos 2" on his show: Voting for Sanders to either help him win, help knock Clinton out of the running or just delay her from clinching the nomination early. What effect his influence could have on primary elections is unclear.

It's doubtful that Trump will win a nomination. Too uncontrollable. Too petulant and revenge-prone. Even less of a filter than Biden, and that's saying something.
Cruz won't win a nomination. He's widely disliked by senior members of his own party.
So it's Bush or Rubio.
As for Sanders and Clinton, I have serious doubts that this country will vote in a proudly socialist Jewish guy from the North East, even though he's more ethically-worthy of the Office.
posted by zarq at 7:21 AM on February 1, 2016


Everyone needs a hug.
posted by Sophie1 at 7:37 AM on February 1, 2016 [6 favorites]


USERNAME — nat
IOWA DEM — Sanders
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Cruz
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Sanders
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Trump
DEM NOMINEE — Sanders
GOP NOMINEE — Trump
FINAL WINNER — Bloomberg

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — Republicans
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Republicans
DEM VP — O'Malley
GOP VP — Huckabee

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — Republicans start liking ranked preference voting.

I already live in Denmark (and mailed off my overseas voter form today!) so I can't claim I'll stomp off to another country to sulk if Trump does win. Plus I don't think that's a responsible or reasonable response. That having been said -- I've got a guest room, should any of you be needing it in 2017.
posted by nat at 7:43 AM on February 1, 2016 [1 favorite]


USERNAME — sparklemotion
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Cruz
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Rubio
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Rubio
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — Republicans
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Democrats
DEM VP — Castro
GOP VP — Christie

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — This is really a best case scenario I think for the GOP. Cruz and Trump split the crazy-people states, and fold during Super Tuesday (especially as the non-cruz/trump candidates who perform poorly in Iowa and NH are forced to drop out, and support coalesces around someone who isn't quite so polarizing). In an attempt to heal the republican image in the eyes of the country, Rubio will choose a relatively centrist VP candidate instead of going full conservative. The move won't be enough to pull away support from Clinton fans.

On the Dem side, I just don't think that states besides New Hampshire and Vermont are really going to feel the Bern. Which is fine. Clinton has learned a lot about organizing a ground game from her loss to Obama and won't make the same mistakes again.
posted by sparklemotion at 7:57 AM on February 1, 2016 [1 favorite]


USERNAME — Potomac Ave
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Clinton
NH GOP — Rubio
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Rubio
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Rubio
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — R
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — D
DEM VP — Corey Booker
GOP VP — John Kaish

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — Zzzzzz
posted by Potomac Avenue at 7:57 AM on February 1, 2016


DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMP

On MSNBC this morning Andrea Mitchell predicted that the Dem Iowa caucus would be so close as to result in litigation.
posted by Sockpuppet Liberation Front at 8:09 AM on February 1, 2016


I should probably check 538 predictions before I predict Hillary to win NH haha.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 8:12 AM on February 1, 2016 [1 favorite]


Having caucused during primary season (okay, once) (okay, in 2004) (okay, not in Iowa) (okay, I'm hardly an expert on the Iowa caucuses) it's clear the interpersonal dynamics of caucusgoers, and their ranked candidate preferences, play a much larger role than in a primary election. Trump may be a lot of Republicans' first choice, but I really, really doubt he's many people's second choice. Also, I feel like there will be much greater social pressure in the caucuses against Trump than against any other candidate. AND, his ground game in Iowa is pretty fucked; considering how many of his self-declared supporters are first-time caucusgoers, he's not doing a whole lot to educate them on the process or get them to the caucuses.

I might eat my hat tomorrow, but I feel like Trump's going to tank tonight in Iowa. He may still win in New Hampshire, but I think it'll be a pretty swift fall from grace for The Donald.
posted by duffell at 8:52 AM on February 1, 2016


USERNAME — bgal81
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Cruz (by less than 2%)
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Cruz
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Cruz (Trump goes third party)
FINAL WINNER — Slagathor

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — R
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — D
DEM VP — Julian Castro
GOP VP — John Kasich
ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
posted by bgal81 at 8:55 AM on February 1, 2016 [2 favorites]


USERNAME — Fizz
IOWA DEM — Sanders
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Cruz
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Trump
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Trump
FINAL WINNER — Corporations and Big Oil

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — R
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — D
DEM VP — Cory Booker
GOP VP — Nikki Haley
ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — 🙇
posted by Fizz at 9:18 AM on February 1, 2016 [2 favorites]


USERNAME — Rock Steady
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Cruz
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Rubio
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Rubio
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — R
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — R
DEM VP — Castro
GOP VP — Haley

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — A brokered GOP convention and a pretty close general election.
posted by Rock Steady at 9:48 AM on February 1, 2016 [1 favorite]


Okay, why not.

USERNAME — RedOrGreen
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Trump
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Romney
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — "Too close to call" for at least 3 months.
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — D
DEM VP — Cory Booker
GOP VP — Carly Fiorina

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — The D story is straightforward. On the R side, Trump cruises to a delegate lead but not a crushing majority, and superdelegates dig their heels in (have their heels dug in for them by cold hard cash) and refuse to endorse the will of the voters. Romney is called back by acclamation, and picks Fiorina to insulate him from sexism charges as the negative ad barrage starts against Clinton.

Trump takes his ball and goes home, runs fourth party. Bloomberg withdraws his third party bid but can't be removed from the ballot in several states. Oddly enough, those states just happen to be the ones where he hurts Clinton more than Romney / Trump. The GOP splits into its corporate and populist factions, evangelicals attempt to rally around a fifth horseman of the apocalypse, rains of frogs and beetles spread across the land.

In spite of all that, Clinton ekes out a squeaker. But the House is thrown into chaos because of lawsuits and counter-suits over the outcomes of over a dozen seats. The new president is inaugurated, but the House cannot elect a Speaker. Since all spending bills have to originate in the House, no bills can be paid come 21st Jan 2017. The United States defaults on all its obligations. The world financial system collapses from the shock, the economy grinds to a standstill, the elderly can no longer afford cat food because Social Security checks are not coming, the medical system shuts down in the absence of Medicare and Medicaid payments.

On the plus side, oil is cheap, and the weather is particularly nice in the Bahamas this season if your private jet can fly out of a private airport.

I ... I think I need a drink.
posted by RedOrGreen at 9:52 AM on February 1, 2016


USERNAME — klarck
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Cruz
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Sanders
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Trump
DEM NOMINEE — Sanders
GOP NOMINEE — Trump
FINAL WINNER — Sanders

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — Republican
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Democrat
DEM VP — O'Malley
GOP VP — Dennis Rodman

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — Trump feels disrespected in brokered convention, decides to teach GOP establishment a lesson, usurps R party. Sanders squeaks in.
posted by klarck at 10:01 AM on February 1, 2016


I suspect it will be fascism vs socialism in a battle for the very soul of America.

But, then, depending on who you are asking for, this describes every election.
posted by maxsparber at 10:13 AM on February 1, 2016 [2 favorites]


Addendum to my rationalization: I wanted to pick Palin as the Republican VP, but then I realized Trump would not choose someone who has their own agenda and is likely to steal attention from him. He'll name someone who knows where the bodies are or someone who can attend all the functions he doesn't care to attend, and can do so without commanding attention.
posted by zippy at 10:21 AM on February 1, 2016 [1 favorite]


USERNAME — Cash4Lead
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Cruz
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Trump
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Trump
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — R
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — D
DEM VP — Tim Kaine
GOP VP — Chris Christie

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — Sanders will put up a good fight, but Clinton's superior organization, support from African-Americans, and lock on the superdelegates will carry her through. If there are ill feelings among Dems, they are quickly put aside as they realize it's up to them to save the Republic from Donald J. Trump. The GOP elites talk themselves into accepting Trump as the nominee, thinking they can control him. (They also realize a brokered convention that didn't yield Trump as the nominee would destroy the party. So they decide this bomb, Major Kong-style, all the way down. Trump throws them a bone and picks Christie as his running mate, which was nice of him.)

As expected, Trump drives Latinos en masse into the Democratic column, but Clinton avoids going full Rainbow Coalition and picks Kaine, who has good ties to both Latinos and religious voters thanks to his background as a Catholic missionary. (The latter turns out to be surprisingly helpful as Christian conservatives who see Trump as Antichrist hold their noses and support Clinton.) The economy is rattled by the slowdown in China and the collapse of oil prices, but we don't see a replay of 2008, or anything close to it. As for terrorism, ISIS continues to implode and can manage only a few one-off attacks in Europe. The Zika virus fails to incite mass panic in the way that Ebola did in 2014, Fox News notwithstanding.

The Clinton-Trump debate reminds a lot of people of Clinton before the Benghazi committee, as Trump's bluster compares unfavorably with Clinton's poise. Christie roughs up Kaine in the VP debate, but you can tell his heart's not in it.

Clinton will win, but will lose a formerly reliable Blue state from the upper Midwest.
posted by Cash4Lead at 10:24 AM on February 1, 2016 [6 favorites]


USERNAME — desjardins
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Rubio
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Rubio
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Rubio
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — Repub
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Dem
DEM VP — Elizabeth Warren
GOP VP — Paul Ryan

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — I'm voting for Sanders but I just can't see him winning the nomination; he's too anti-establishment. Rubio is kind of wishful thinking on my part. I don't like him but I hate him slightly less than Trump and Cruz. Plus I think the GOP will find some way to undermine Trump even if he does win enough votes. My Dem VP pick is totally pie-in-the-sky, but boy would I like to see two women in the White House.
posted by desjardins at 10:24 AM on February 1, 2016 [1 favorite]


Aside: If Trump somehow wins, I will be looking for a Canadian to marry. I'm a gay man but will consider all offers.
posted by desjardins at 10:29 AM on February 1, 2016 [4 favorites]


desjardins, I want to be the first to wish you & Ted Cruz many happy years…

What? What, you guys?
posted by wenestvedt at 10:39 AM on February 1, 2016 [13 favorites]


USERNAME — logicpunk
IOWA DEM — Sanders
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Larval Reagan
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Pupal Reagan
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Reagan-Aleph
FINAL WINNER — REAGAN-TAV

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
DEM VP — Father Davide Moretti
GOP VP — Ted Cruz

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — Both Sanders and Trump outperform expectations in Iowa by a large margin. Sanders rides the momentum through New Hampshire. The Republican leadership, in an attempt to regain control of the party, hastily assemble at midnight after the Iowa caucuses. No records of what occurred on that hilltop in Simi Valley are known to exist, but shortly thereafter a re-energized Jeb Bush surges in NH, eking out a narrow win. During a speech on the night of the New Hampshire primaries, a visibly uncomfortable Bush, jerking and twitching in obvious pain, is heard to speak in two distinct voices. The speech is cut short when the candidate appears to suffer a grand mal seizure. Bush is rushed out of the room and for the rest of the primary season only communicates with the press through crudely executed pictograms that emphasize his commitment to the Second Amendment. Excited by this bold new direction in Bush's previously moribund campaign, voters flock to the booths on Super Tuesday to express their approval, and he coasts through the rest of the country. Meanwhile, Democratic voters, sensing a potential threat from the invigorated Bush campaign, rush to support Clinton as the safe choice. At the GOP convention, a sense of unease pervades: not only has no one seen the candidate for 6 months, but several prominent members of the party are nowhere to be found. The tension comes to a head the day of the candidate's acceptance speech, and running battles between Tea Partiers and more moderate Republicans occur in the streets of Cleveland. At last, Bush appears to accept his party's nomination. A trio of white-clad attendants wheel the nominee, grotesquely swollen and barely conscious, onstage. After a few moments of silence, Bush emits a hideous screech, and his body splits down the middle. Out of the human wreckage steps a quivering figure which, although covered in offal, is instantly recognizable as Ronald Reagan. The crowd goes wild. Reagan spreads his wings and flies through the Quicken Loans Arena, dropping to feed on his eager followers at will. The response from Clinton is immediate and decisive as she enlists the aid of the Catholic Church, who agree to help on the condition that one of their own is installed as the vice presidential candidate. Despite Clinton's claim that only her administration stands a chance of driving back the ravening hellspawn that have begun terrorizing the east coast, "Bush" easily wins the election on a platform of lower taxes and safer borders. The results are immediately contested by the Clinton campaign, which claims that "Jeb Bush" is clearly a reanimated Ronald Reagan, and is therefore ineligible under the 22nd amendment. In a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court decides in favor of Bush. Writing for the majority, Justice Scalia states that term limits do not apply to individuals that have been "reanimated, reincarnated, or whose soul has migrated between bodies."
posted by logicpunk at 11:03 AM on February 1, 2016 [18 favorites]


USERNAME — Toubab
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Cruz
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Rubio
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Rubio
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Rubio
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — Republicans
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Republicans
DEM VP — Julian Castro
GOP VP — Nikki Haley

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — Trump is a mirage propped up by the media exposure. Once the voting gets started, he will disappear into the night.
posted by Toubab at 11:04 AM on February 1, 2016


USERNAME — Ironmouth
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Cruz
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Cruz
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Cruz
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — Dems
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Dems
DEM VP — Castro
GOP VP — Fiorina

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — Trump's Iowa ground game is weak. Cruz rallies evangelicals, Sanders strength in Iowa too concentrated in a few places, can't break through firewall of post NH states. Trump runs into trouble eventually in the South where Cruz connects with evangelicals
posted by Ironmouth at 11:06 AM on February 1, 2016


After a few moments of silence, Bush emits a hideous screech, and his body splits down the middle. Out of the human wreckage steps a quivering figure which, although covered in offal, is instantly recognizable as Ronald Reagan. The crowd goes wild. Reagan spreads his wings and flies through the Quicken Loans Arena, dropping to feed on his eager followers at will.

GOP VP — Entity known as SCP-1981-1
posted by Rock Steady at 11:09 AM on February 1, 2016 [5 favorites]


Not in the running for my own contest, but for the record here is my (pessimistic) prediction:

IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Cruz
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Rubio
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Rubio
FINAL WINNER — Rubio

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
DEM VP — Julian Castro
GOP VP — Nikki Haley

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — Narrow outsider victories in Iowa and New Hampshire cause the GOP establishment to finally wake the f*ck up. The clown car mostly empties out and all party resources converge on Rubio, the best-performing "moderate" candidate. Trump is finally taken down by vicious Super PAC ads pointing to past liberal statements, weak debate performances, and splitting the crazy fringe vote with Cruz. Meanwhile, Clinton narrowly defeats Sanders in Iowa but loses New Hampshire as expected. She manages to finish him off by Super Tuesday, but not without alienating his most ardent supporters. Rubio goes with Haley to help wipe the Trump taint from the party image, Clinton picks Castro to counter Rubio's Latino and youth appeal. Lacking the energy of the activist base and faced with relatively charismatic and likable opponents, Clinton narrowly loses in November. Minor GOP loses in both houses, with slim control over both. Hopefully Senate Dems can hold the line until Senator Professor Elizabeth Warren saves us all in 2020.
posted by Rhaomi at 11:43 AM on February 1, 2016 [2 favorites]


USERNAME Lynsey
IOWA DEM Hillary
IOWA GOP The Donald
NH DEM Bernie
NH GOP Marco
SUPER TUESDAY DEM Hillary
SUPER TUESDAY GOP The Donald
DEM NOMINEE Hillary
GOP NOMINEE The Cruz
FINAL WINNER Opus from Bloom County , VP Bill the Cat from Bloom County

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY Dem
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY Dem
DEM VP Queen Elizabeth the Warren
GOP VP Marco

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING Argh, if only Opus and Bill had a wider
constituency than fb!

posted by Lynsey at 11:43 AM on February 1, 2016 [3 favorites]


ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING Argh, if only Opus and Bill had a wider
constituency than fb!


Ack. Oop. PTHBPBPBPTHTTT!
posted by zarq at 11:50 AM on February 1, 2016 [2 favorites]


USERNAME — thefoxgod
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Rubio
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Rubio
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
DEM VP — Martin Heinrich
GOP VP — Nikki Haley

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — It may be Trump, but I have a secret fantasy that after a few Trump wins the GOP will come to its senses, but still lose to Hillary. On the other hand, if Trump does manage to get the nomination the Dems may also take the Senate.
posted by thefoxgod at 11:52 AM on February 1, 2016


OK, I'm updating my earlier prediction after reading about Cruz's last-minute strategic clusterfuck in Iowa. I forgot to account for how his arrogant fuckwaddishness makes him his own worst enemy.

Trump, despite high polling numbers in Iowa, fails to lock down the state due to his high disapproval ratings and the inner-workings of the caucus system. He snags the NH primary and maybe a handful of others, but he collapses quickly. Cruz and his aforementioned fuckwaddishness put him in 2nd-4th in most state contests until he finally, bitterly, bows out. Voters looking for an alternative to Trump settle on Marco Rubio. Maybe Jeb! sees a momentary spike too, but it's too little, too late.

IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Rubio
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Rubio
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Rubio
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — Republican
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Republican
DEM VP — Julian Castro
GOP VP — John Kasich


Also switching my GOP VP prediction. The hamfistedness of picking a female VP candidate to try and woo female voters from Clinton feels like more of a Cruz move. Anyway, Rubio will want to balance his fresh-faced image with that of a craggy swing-state governor with gravitas. Enter the seemingly level-headed John Kasich.
posted by duffell at 12:19 PM on February 1, 2016


> If Trump does manage to get the nomination the Dems may also take the Senate.

If Trump is the nominee, even the *House* is in play. The Senate is rather likely to flip, because the Republican wave of 2010 (the Tea Party wave) is up for re-election.

(But the House is so gerrymandered that it probably won't flip until after President Clinton manages the 2020 census.)
posted by RedOrGreen at 12:21 PM on February 1, 2016


USERNAME — Hairy Lobster
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Rubio
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Rubio
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Rubio
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — DEM
DEM VP — Castro
GOP VP — Kasich

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — It can not be Greg Stillson Donald Trump. It must not be Greg Stillson Donald Trump.
posted by Hairy Lobster at 12:27 PM on February 1, 2016


USERNAME —bearwife
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Clinton
NH GOP — Kasich
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Kasich
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Kasich
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — Republican
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Democrat
DEM VP — Julian Castro
GOP VP — Nikki Haley

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING: I believe voters generally make sensible choices. Hillary is the obvious choice for the Ds and the country -- she is deeply qualified and has a core of steel, and she has a track record of bipartisanship. And that she would be the first woman president is truly exciting. Julian Castro would pull the key Latino vote and maybe, maybe, Texas. Kasich is the only even close to sensible GOP candidate besides Jeb, who just seems to have no pizzazz at all, and brings a huge electoral state with him if nominated. I think Nikki Haley would be a smart choice for him. I think the electoral demographics mean Hillary will win comfortably nationally. If the Ds were a half way competent party, that would mean they took both houses of Congress too, but I think they have really forgotten about grass roots, local politics and have been intensely gerrymandered too, so probably they barely keep the Senate.
posted by bearwife at 12:50 PM on February 1, 2016 [1 favorite]


USERNAME — melissasaurus
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Sanders
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Trump
DEM NOMINEE — Sanders
GOP NOMINEE — Trump
FINAL WINNER — Sanders

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
DEM VP — Cory Booker
GOP VP — Sarah Palin

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — I like Clinton, but I'm to the left of Sanders, so I'm holding out hope for a true progressive president. Trump/Palin because I keep thinking "it can't get worse than this, right?" and then it does. Also, I don't think his ego would allow him to share the stage with another man; he wouldn't consider a woman to be encroaching on "his" territory; then again, I don't know if he'd accept having a woman as second-in-line to the presidency (but would he even contemplate his own death? and/or care about the country after he's no longer alive?). I love Cory Booker, so a Sanders/Booker ticket would be pretty much the most amazing thing ever, though they probably wouldn't do a full tri-state-area ticket. Kirsten Gillibrand is great, but again, the too much NY on the ticket, and dems can't afford to lose a progressive woman in the Senate. Wendy Davis would be awesome. Tulsi Gabbard is my rep now, and she's generally ok, but she did vote in favor of the no-Syrian-refugees thing, which is BS; she would diversify a Sanders ticket in many ways though (state, gender, military service, religion, age).
posted by melissasaurus at 12:58 PM on February 1, 2016 [1 favorite]


USERNAME — sebmojo
IOWA DEM — clinton
IOWA GOP — trump
NH DEM — clinton
NH GOP — trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — trump
DEM NOMINEE — clinton
GOP NOMINEE — trump
FINAL WINNER — clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — republican
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — republican
DEM VP — sanders
GOP VP — big bird

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — trump is playing the deranged calliope of us politics too well to lose the gop race, I hope Clinton can beat him with substance but tbh I'm only 30% convinced she can
posted by Sebmojo at 1:28 PM on February 1, 2016


USERNAME — prize bull octorok
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Rubio
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Supreme Leader Snoke
FINAL WINNER — Can anyone truly be said to have won this cruel game the American experiment has become

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Diet GOP
DEM VP — Biden
GOP VP — Richard Straker

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — Trump is running for his own personal amusement and will escalate his demagoguery to absurd new heights until he finally decides he's bored with this and drops out of the race, leaving the GOP to thrash about blindly for whatever spent, hollow also-ran seems the most "electable" and that will be Marco Rubio, Jeb! having descended into bitter apathy and Cruz having been cast back into Tartarus after a group of plucky, adventurous youngsters find the ancient scroll that summoned him into this world in the first place and read it backwards. Democratic voters, despite "feeling the Bern" in several states, will decide it might be fun to actually elect back to back Democrat presidents and coalesce around Hillary Clinton after realizing that half the nation has the political sensibilities of your asshole cousin on Facebook and that folks who think Jesus invented poverty as an earthly punishment for lazy people are not going to send a Socialist to the White House.

Clinton will lock the election when she holds a press conference to announce her VP selection, Aerosmith's "Back in the Saddle" starts playing over the PA, and Joe Biden pulls up in a red, white, and blue '69 Camaro. Rubio attempts a scathing takedown of Clinton over Benghazi/her email server in the final debate, but he will remind American voters of nothing so much as their whiny little brother ardently trying to rules lawyer them out of building that extra Monopoly hotel after he'd been bugging them for hours to play it with him and they really didn't want to but OKAY FINE and then he was such a little shit about it the whole time, and they will decide that whatever ambitious venality they perceive in Clinton really is pretty quintessentially American after all, and prepare to elect her President.

But they will never get the chance, because of what will become known as the Great Mongolian Death Worm Awakening of October 2016 in tales passed on by oral tradition in a ravaged, post-apocalyptic world ruled by cycle gangs and paint-huffing messianic cults. Happy Election Year, everybody!
posted by prize bull octorok at 1:28 PM on February 1, 2016 [27 favorites]


Cruz having been cast back into Tartarus after a group of plucky, adventurous youngsters find the ancient scroll that summoned him into this world in the first place and read it backward

That whole comment is pretty great, prize bull octorok, but I had to pull out this choice morsel, which made me chortle. I think we have found a quote that both the GOP and Democrats can savor.
posted by bearwife at 1:39 PM on February 1, 2016 [1 favorite]


USERNAME — psoas
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Rubio
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Rubio
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — Republicans
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Democrats
DEM VP — Castro
GOP VP — Kasich

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — The house always wins.
posted by psoas at 2:43 PM on February 1, 2016


USERNAME — jeather
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Trump
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Trump
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — D
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — D
DEM VP — O'Malley
GOP VP — Palin

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — Canadian ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
posted by jeather at 2:57 PM on February 1, 2016 [1 favorite]


I'm gonna post my Iowa predictions now while I still can, and I'll come back to predict the rest of the race when I've had time to think about things beyond Iowa and New Hampshire.

USERNAME — kevinbelt
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Cruz
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
posted by kevinbelt at 3:02 PM on February 1, 2016


USERNAME — mightygodking
IOWA DEM — Sanders
IOWA GOP — Cruz
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Trump
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Trump
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Dem
DEM VP — Julien Castro
GOP VP — Marco Rubio
posted by mightygodking at 3:04 PM on February 1, 2016


kevinbelt, it's all or nothing! You can submit an updated prediction after Iowa/NH, but then your Iowa/NH slots will be marked as wrong. It's best to make your guess now.
posted by Rhaomi at 3:07 PM on February 1, 2016 [1 favorite]


USERNAME — slmorri
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Trump
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Trump
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — Republican
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Democrat
DEM VP — Warren
GOP VP — Kasich

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — I have nothing smart to say about this process....the voting hasn't even started and already I'm tapped out.
posted by slmorri at 3:11 PM on February 1, 2016 [1 favorite]


USERNAME — Gotanda
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Nobody
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Cruz
FINAL WINNER — Ryan

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — Republican
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Republican
DEM VP — Cory Booker
GOP VP — Fiorina

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — Clinton gets hobbled by revelations that fall just short of indictment so she can plausibly stay in but also not win. Super Tuesday is a GOP knife fight that leaves them all bleeding, but deflates Trump. Bloomberg jumps in. Nobody reaches 270, and the House finally picks Paul Ryan.
posted by Gotanda at 3:18 PM on February 1, 2016


USERNAME — Automocar
IOWA DEM — Sanders
IOWA GOP — Cruz
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Trump
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Trump
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — Republican
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Republican
DEM VP — Biden ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
GOP VP — Ivanka Trump ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — I think the caucus system is going to work for Sanders and against Trump. But Clinton will win SC, NC, and Florida and Trump will win NH and voters will split between Rubio and Cruz in later contests, leaving Trump ascendant. Demographic and electoral college trends will put Clinton in the White House.
posted by Automocar at 3:19 PM on February 1, 2016 [1 favorite]


Ivanka would never.
posted by bgal81 at 3:23 PM on February 1, 2016


USERNAME — Navelgazer
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Cruz
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Cruz
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
DEM VP — Booker
GOP VP — Pawlenty

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — Cynicism, mostly.
posted by Navelgazer at 3:36 PM on February 1, 2016


USERNAME — Splunge
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Clinton
NH GOP — Cruz
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Cruz
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Cruz
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
DEM VP — Sanders
GOP VP — Rubio

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — Exhaustion. Fear. Loathing.
posted by Splunge at 3:51 PM on February 1, 2016


USERNAME — chaoticgood
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Rubio
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Rubio
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — R
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — D
DEM VP — Castro
GOP VP — Joni Ernst

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — Super Tuesday will be huge--Hilary will win big and ride that wave to the convention; GOP voters will come to their senses and ditch Trump in favor of Rubio. Castro is an obvious VP pick if Rubio is the Republican candidate. Joni Ernst will be the GOP's attempt to pull in the wing-nut faction and white women, since it worked so well with Palin (no, I don't believe they have learned any lessons yet). I hope my liver can survive this election cycle.
posted by chaoticgood at 4:03 PM on February 1, 2016


I'm going to make a blanket fort and hide in it, coming out to vote in the primary and the general election. There's plenty of room in here if you're willing to put up with me and an adorable little black cat...
posted by SillyShepherd at 4:06 PM on February 1, 2016 [4 favorites]


Can I change my NH prediction? I was being dumb: it's going to be Trump there too.
posted by anotherpanacea at 4:14 PM on February 1, 2016


USERNAME — quonsar II: smock fishpants and the temple of foon
IOWA DEM — Sanders
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Sanders
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Trump
DEM NOMINEE — Sanders
GOP NOMINEE — Trump
FINAL WINNER — Sanders

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — D
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — D
DEM VP — Clinton
GOP VP — Beelzebub

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — Because in my world, rainbow-shitting unicorns frolic in verdant fields of green, under a hugely smiling sun.
posted by quonsar II: smock fishpants and the temple of foon at 4:24 PM on February 1, 2016 [3 favorites]


Okay, I'll play.

USERNAME — vrakatar
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Cruz
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Jeb!
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Rubio
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Rubio
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — R
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — D
DEM VP — Cory Booker
GOP VP — Nikki Haley

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — Trump withdraws by Florida. Sanders gives Hill a run for her money but she has the ground game and a jedi council and she wants it bad. I picked her as the eventual winner but I'm unsure. Booker 2020.

Why Rubio? Because if the GOP wants a puncher's chance in the general election, they have to make gains with the young, women, or latino/a voters. They know this.



Game on, me hearties! Yarg! Vote for Skeffington! Tell it to Sweeny! Do not anger the fire wreathed corpse of Daniel Webster!
posted by vrakatar at 4:39 PM on February 1, 2016


USERNAME — beagle
IOWA DEM — Sanders
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Sanders
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Trump
DEM NOMINEE — Sanders
GOP NOMINEE — Trump
FINAL WINNER — Sanders

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — Rep
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Dem
DEM VP — Elizabeth Warren
GOP VP — Sarah Palin

posted by beagle at 4:40 PM on February 1, 2016


USERNAME — lownote
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Cruz
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Rubio
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Cruz
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — Republicans
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Republicans
DEM VP — Julian Castro
GOP VP — Susana Martinez

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — I feel like these are pretty boring picks. I'm least convinced about tonight's Dem results. I'm not 100% convinced I can explain how Cruz will win but Rubio will take Super Tuesday, but I think Super Tuesday will be very split for Republicans, with Rubio winning a plurality. At this point a lot of people will drop out, but not enough for him to shake the outsiders.
posted by lownote at 4:42 PM on February 1, 2016


GOP VP — Beelzebub

Unlikely. According to the Gospel of Nicodemus, Beelzebub argued in favor of allowing Jesus to leave Hell after the Harrowing, and would therefore be unacceptable to law-and-order GOP voters.
posted by prize bull octorok at 4:48 PM on February 1, 2016 [3 favorites]


Time's up for Iowa predictions! NH and beyond guesses are welcome, but all entries after this point will have the Iowa slot discounted.
posted by Rhaomi at 5:00 PM on February 1, 2016


USERNAME — Splen
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Rubio
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Rubio
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — DEM
DEM VP — J Castro
GOP VP — Kasich

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — After Trump wins the first two primaries, the GOP realizes Rubio is their best real hope and 'encourages' Cruz to drop out with everyone else gracefully backing Rubio. Clinton wins against any of them, though.
posted by splen at 5:01 PM on February 1, 2016


MSNBC reports evangelicals at 62% in entrance polling. This could be bad for Trump.

edit, entrance polling of GOP voters.
posted by vrakatar at 5:17 PM on February 1, 2016 [1 favorite]


USERNAME — zippy
IOWA DEM — hypnotoad
IOWA GOP — hypnotoad
NH DEM — hypnotoad
NH GOP — hypnotoad
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — hypnotoad
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — hypnotoad
DEM NOMINEE — hypnotoad
GOP NOMINEE — hypnotoad
FINAL WINNER — hypnotoad

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — hypnotoad
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — hypnotoad
DEM VP — hypnotoad
GOP VP — hypnotoad

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — all glory to the hypnotoad
posted by zippy at 5:21 PM on February 1, 2016 [9 favorites]


Here's a link for county by county results, once they start coming in: Des Moines Reggy got you covered.
posted by vrakatar at 5:25 PM on February 1, 2016


USERNAME — Pink Moose
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Rubio
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Trump
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — Republicans
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY —Dem
DEM VP — Sanders
GOP VP — Rubio
posted by PinkMoose at 5:40 PM on February 1, 2016


A little late but I haven't seen any results yet....

USERNAME — Rumple
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Cruz
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Rubio
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Rubio
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — Democrats
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Democrats
DEM VP — Jim Webb
GOP VP — Rand Paul

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — Could be a Democratic landslide given how cheapened the GOP brand will be.
posted by Rumple at 5:48 PM on February 1, 2016 [1 favorite]


Can I hange my NH GOP pickto Rubio from Jeb!? Is that allowed?
posted by vrakatar at 6:59 PM on February 1, 2016


You know, the best outcome would probably be for the GOP race to be competitive after Super Tuesday. Then, in the next debate, Trump hits Cruz with a steel chair and tears open his shirt to reveal a "HILLARY 2016" shirt, then runs off stage to her music.

I'd have to seriously re-consider my vote if that happens.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 7:09 PM on February 1, 2016 [3 favorites]


I'm voting for the chair!
posted by clavdivs at 8:05 PM on February 1, 2016 [4 favorites]


Chair / Ladder 2016
posted by zippy at 9:36 PM on February 1, 2016 [2 favorites]


vrakatar: "Can I hange my NH GOP pickto Rubio from Jeb!? Is that allowed?"

Sure, but updating your entry post-Iowa would disqualify your (correct!) Iowa guess, so it'd be a wash even if Rubio wins NH.
posted by Rhaomi at 9:59 PM on February 1, 2016


Quick update: Out of 68 (non-jokey) entries, only 17 correctly predicted a Cruz victory in Iowa. The Democratic race is still too close to call, but 15 of those 17 called Iowa for Clinton.
posted by Rhaomi at 10:06 PM on February 1, 2016 [1 favorite]


My concession speech: the good thing about predictions and bets is that they sharpen your thinking about how to evaluate evidence. My model of IA was totally wrong, I let Ann Selzer's polling sway me on Trump but not on Clinton despite the fact that the Democratic race had fewer candidates to inject Condorcet problems.

I'd still like to say that the final nominees will be Rubio and Clinton. And that does seem plausible. But I'm a little less certain. In future I'll go back to giving my guesses on probability. (95% for Clinton, 65% for Rubio)
posted by anotherpanacea at 2:49 AM on February 2, 2016


Dammit; too late to enter this, but am sticking with my prediction from last September, namely:

DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Rubio
DEM VP — Castro
GOP VP — Kasich

I've also staked an accumulator at odds of 3,410-1 on which the first four bets within have won. Starting to regret only putting 3 UK pounds on it, but if it does all come off then one of the winnings donations will be going to MetaFilter. The next two bets within that accumulator are Rubio to get a top three finish in New Hampshire, and the same again in South Carolina.

If they both happen, am going to get a little hopeful (still a few more bets after that all have to win). And I'm also going to ask Nate Silver for a job.
posted by Wordshore at 5:29 AM on February 2, 2016


Full prediction:

USERNAME — kevinbelt
IOWA DEM — Clintion (I was right!)
IOWA GOP — Cruz (right again!)
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Cruz
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Cruz
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — R
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — R
DEM VP — either O'Malley or Julian Castro
GOP VP — Nikki Haley

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — Wow, this turned depressing. I see Trump fading, but I don't see Rubio (or anyone else) picking up enough "Marcomentum" to beat Cruz in the south on Super Tuesday. Cruz is tailor-made for crazy southerners. I think if the schedule were arranged differently, Rubio might have a chance, but with Super Tuesday being so concentrated geographically, I think that will cap a Cruz nomination.

Sanders fights valiantly, but just like last night, falls just short. I just don't see him getting enough African-American voters in the south to win on Super Tuesday, although I think the split is pretty close. I think the Dem campaign will turn nasty before the end as Hillary twists the knife. She doesn't want any part of "feeling the Bern", so she wants to discredit him before his ideas become part of her platform.

That's going to be a horrible general campaign, the two candidates everyone hates. Clinton prevails on two points: 1, she has fewer establishment enemies than Cruz, so she'll probably win fundraising and will crush him in spending, and 2, independents are turned off by Cruz. He won't get much turnout beyond the base, and if a Bloomberg campaign catches on, it could syphon off moderate Republicans. I see Bloomberg hurting Republicans more than Democrats, who I think will line up pretty solidly for Hillary.
posted by kevinbelt at 7:44 AM on February 2, 2016


I want to note for the record that Clinton was leading Sanders in allocated Iowa delegates by 701 to 697, but 5 of those delegates were allocated by coin toss, and all 5 went to Clinton.

(Wouldn't you prefer a president who had the binomial distribution on her side?)
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:29 AM on February 2, 2016 [1 favorite]


The odds on who will be the Republican candidate have changed rather dramatically - and are still rapidly changing, indicating a lot of money is being placed - over the last 15 or so hours.
posted by Wordshore at 8:51 AM on February 2, 2016


That's going to be a horrible general campaign, the two candidates everyone hates.

See, this is why I just don't bother participating in political threads on Metafilter, even as a staunch democrat. God forbid that there are people out there (and maybe even here!) who actually *like* Clinton! It was ugly eight years ago when I was just lurking, and I don't see it being much better now. I'm tired of the assumptions of What We All Think.
posted by Salieri at 9:37 AM on February 2, 2016 [2 favorites]


Salieri, *I* like Hillary Clinton and don't think she gets a fair shake either, but I think your reading of that comment is uncharitable. Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz both have high unfavorables and have made a lot of political enemies--so a general election between those two candidates is bound to bring out a lot of nastiness, both from within their own parties and from their opposition. They also both have fans, some of whom are pretty die-hard, and I don't think anyone here is disputing that, or intending to put words in your mouth.

I'm not suggesting Ted Cruz and Hillary Clinton are comparable as human beings or as accomplished politicians, just that both of them tend to bring out a lot of nastiness in others. (In Clinton's case, I think the root of that nastiness is often misogyny. In Cruz's case, I'm pretty sure it's just that he's a piece of shit.)
posted by duffell at 9:50 AM on February 2, 2016 [1 favorite]


Obviously, not *everyone* hates either Clinton or Cruz. Both will baseline at least 45% in a worst-case scenario general election, and I picked each to win his/her party's nomination, so clearly I'm aware there are some people who support them. But as duffell noted, both candidates inspire a lot of negativity. And the key point here, to me, is that the unfavorable ratings are not just among voters of the other party, or undecided voters, but even among voters of their own parties. There's a very large segment of Republicans who would prefer just about any other candidate to Ted Cruz, and a smaller but still notable segment of Democrats who would prefer anyone but Hillary. There aren't the same unfavorables for Sanders or, say, Rubio.

I thought it was implied that "everyone" was hyperbole. I mean, I was planning to vote for Lincoln Chafee until he dropped out. Of all people, I understand support for unpopular candidates.
posted by kevinbelt at 10:13 AM on February 2, 2016


Yeah, sorry if I jumped the gun on the hyperbole. I think I just need to step away from that giant primary thread on the blue.
posted by Salieri at 10:27 AM on February 2, 2016 [1 favorite]


ah, sorry if I jumped the gun on the hyperbole. I think I just need to step away from that giant primary thread on the blue.

That thread is guaranteed to be angry-making.
posted by Going To Maine at 10:37 AM on February 2, 2016 [1 favorite]


USERNAME — corb
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Rubio
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Cruz
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Rubio
FINAL WINNER — Rubio

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — Republican
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Democrat
DEM VP — Corey Booker
GOP VP — Colin Powell

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING —

Alright, the veeps I'll admit are a longshot - but if Clinton and Rubio are the nominees, both suffer from a likeability problem in some areas - for Rubio, it's the South, for Clinton, it's everywhere. Clinton needs to choose someone who's universally loved, and how can you do better than the guy who rescued people from a burning building and shoveled snow for complainers? I'd almost vote for her. Rubio needs to choose someone with gravitas, but with popularity and respect. Colin Powell was considered a contender for president in the past, but failed to run because his wife thought he'd get shot. Obama proves that is no longer an issue.

I think that Rubio is going to pick up all of the anybody-but-Trump voters, but struggle, despite his conspicuous God placement, with evangelicals, so a NH win but not Super Tuesday seems likely. Cruz will place there, but he's so deeply hated by the party I can't imagine him winning the nom.

In a general between Rubio and Clinton, I think Rubio will split off the Hispanic voters that Clinton is counting on - even though his immigration policies are harsher than some might like, it's hard to pitch him as hating on Hispanic folk and an existential danger. He brings immigration into the realm of policy, not fear. The Clinton-leaning Hispanic voters are currently excited to vote against Trump, but if he drops out, I think will be somewhat apathetic going to the polls when the alternative is Rubio.
posted by corb at 10:52 AM on February 2, 2016


Powell would make an excellent VP. I can't picture him running with someone who is despised by his own party (Cruz) or self-serving (Trump). But Rubio, sure. Might tick off the tea party republicans (too centrist) but they're not going to vote Democrat instead.
posted by zippy at 11:23 AM on February 2, 2016


Yeah, my predictions are all based on Clinton in the general forcing the Republicans to get in line. If it's Sanders, it's anyone's bet.
posted by corb at 11:26 AM on February 2, 2016


Powell turned down running for President when he would immediately be a damn serious contender over and over. I don't think he wants to be in politics.

My old ass Republican Dad has been clamoring for Condi to get involved for years now. I'm more curious if she has any interest, so far it sounds like a no there too.
posted by Drinky Die at 11:29 AM on February 2, 2016


One primary in and I already hate this. Wake me in a few months when I have to vote in PA as I don't think that I can deal with the inter-party nastiness that this election is causing.
posted by octothorpe at 11:53 AM on February 2, 2016 [1 favorite]


Dang, a little late.

USERNAME — Notyou
IOWA DEM — n/a
IOWA GOP — n/a
NH DEM — Sanders
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Cruz
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Rubio
FINAL WINNER — Rubio

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
DEM VP — Castro
GOP VP — Kelly Ayotte

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING —
Kinda wobbly on Rubio (he's got that deer in the headlights look), but he's polling best among the establishment candidates and I think that's where this gets decided. Super Tuesday is a pile of states and delegates, and I see Cruz ekeing out a win there in the sense of grabbing the biggest share of 'em, but the day really cementing Rubio as the back room money choice, which will see him through the grind. Clinton has too much of the establishment locked up for Sanders' grass-rootsy effort to overcome. I suppose he'll gamely encourage his supporters to turn out in November, but there won't be enough energy from (or for) Clinton to overcome GOP efforts at dampening turnout (watch Clinton's already high negatives skyrocket beginning in late spring). This will hurt the down-ticket races for the Democrats, too, so I don't expect a change in either the House or the Senate.

One positive is that maybe Sanders will hang on to his organization and put it to work post-election, pressuring electeds, organizing down-ticket candidates and campaigns -- everything OFA should have done.

Castro/Warren '20? Good grief, but the Democrat back bench is thin.
posted by notyou at 12:38 PM on February 2, 2016


I know it says you have to enter by yesterday evening — but I'm obviously omitting Iowa since I already know the results.

USERNAME — John Cohen
NH DEM — Bernie Sanders
NH GOP — Marco Rubio
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Hillary Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Rubio
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Rubio
FINAL WINNER — Rubio

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — Republican
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — Republican
DEM VP — Tim Kaine
GOP VP — John Kasich

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION —

Republican primaries: I know Trump has by far the highest poll numbers in NH, but there's good reason to think he'll get far less of the actual vote. He's lost his front-runner luster after his major loss in Iowa (where he had set expectations high). Many voters only decide in the last few days, and I expect people in NH, who know they can have a decisive effect on the nomination process now, to take a closer look and see that Rubio is a more sensible choice. NH will be do-or-die for Christie/Bush/Kasich, but they have none of the momentum or excitement of Rubio, who's the best chance for mainstream Republicans to defeat Cruz/Trump. After Iowa, it seems to be a clear three-person race. Cruz seems like exactly the type of person who's perfectly suited to winning Iowa but never ends up winning the Republican nomination. I've thought all along that Rubio had the strongest chance and was probably being underestimated. Iowa revealed that Trump had been overestimated — the concerns that he wouldn't have the organization to translate his high poll numbers into votes proved well-founded, and it's just not enough for Trump to command his rally attendees to vote. I expect that Iowa will have been Cruz's finest hour; he'll fade away a là Santorum '12 and Huckabee '08; then the party will rally around Rubio as the anti-Trump.

Note to those who are predicting that Rubio will win the Republican nomination without winning Iowa or NH: Do you realize that no one's done that in at least 50 years?

Democratic primaries: Sanders will easily win NH since it borders his home state and he has momentum from his near-tie in Iowa. But I don't think it's realistic to think the country as a whole will go for a 75-year-old who's an independent and a self-proclaimed socialist for president, and I think Democrats will ultimately realize this. (I know he's 74 now, but he'll be 75 by Election Day — more than 5 years older than the oldest president ever to be inaugurated.) So I expect Clinton to win most states from South Carolina onward. Though many overestimated her last time, she came in a respectable second place against Obama. She has more impressive experience and foreign-policy chops now ... and I'm sorry, but Sanders is no Obama.

Republican running mate: Kasich would seem to be a clear choice for Rubio. Florida and Ohio are the perfect match of states for the Republicans. Rubio will look for someone to allay concerns about his experience, and Kasich has a nearly perfect Congress-then-Governor resume (his Lehman Brothers association could hurt him, but I imagine Rubio will consider that a risk worth taking). Kasich isn't the most exciting candidate, but he's affable and emphasizes working across the aisle, while being conservative enough to be acceptable to the very conservative Rubio. (Bush and Rubio can't be on the same ticket since they're from the same state; Christie is too scandal-ridden and rude; Rubio doesn't need another first-term Senator like Cruz; and Trump is too controversial and hard to control.)

Democratic running mate: Clinton is a very sophisticated politician who really wants to win; she'll make this decision based on sound strategy. So Sanders is out of the question for the above reasons. Martin O'Malley was too underwhelming as a candidate, and would raise too many questions about his record in Baltimore and Maryland that Clinton would rather avoid. Though Clinton is publicly emphasizing the historic nature of her candidacy more now than in 2008, she's still going to be concerned about the potential for bias among general-election voters, so while I wish this didn't matter, I think the sad fact is she'll prefer a running mate who isn't particularly historic as far as race or gender or anything else. That excludes Elizabeth Warren, who'd be an awkward match anyway, and Julian Castro, whose resume is too thin anyway. Tim Kaine, the 58-year-old former Governor of Virginia who was on Obama's short list for VP and was later elected Senator, would seem to fit the bill.

General election: I'm really torn on this. I could see Clinton or Rubio (or even Trump) winning the presidency. But I ended up going with Rubio. They would both be history-making candidates, which will be a positive for some voters and a negative for others. There's a lot to be said about which way that could go, and I wouldn't make the mistake of assuming that it'll be "a wash" just because there are factors going both ways. Still, that's unknowable enough that I'm going to set it aside. It seems that we don't usually elect the same party for a third term; an outstanding exception is George H.W. Bush, Reagan's VP, but Obama is more divisive. (Even if you think Al Gore was the rightful winner of the 2000 election, why didn't the VP of such a popular president have a clear victory? Maybe because the electorate gets tired of having the same party in office for more than one 8-year president.) Hillary Clinton has been a very familiar figure for decades, who seems to have a strategy of pitching herself as similar to Obama with some tweaks. That will get Democrats to vote for her, but how effective will it be with the crucial swing voters? Rubio has admitted that Clinton's experience on paper would seem more impressive than his own or any other Republican's. But we don't seem to elect the president based on their experience when there's no incumbent. We seem to go for candidates like Obama over McCain, Bill Clinton over Bush, and JFK over Nixon, not because of their resumes but because we prefer the more fresh, young, exciting candidate. That would suggest it'll be Rubio over Clinton. On top of that, there's sadly not much chance that the current focus on terrorism will go away in less than a year — and while Clinton may be as hawkish as Rubio, not all voters will know that; people associate Republicans with hawkishness. While Clinton can point to her role in the Iran sanctions and killing bin Laden, I don't expect that to sway most voters; I think they'll be more focused on how Obama has handled the current threats, and I expect voters to want someone to announce a firm break with Obama rather than someone who has to hold back from being too critical of him because she was a major figure in his administration. (Note that I haven't based this prediction on match-up polls, which I consider uninformative since they're national, and only some states will be determinative.)
posted by John Cohen at 5:56 PM on February 2, 2016


(Raises hand/STHU)
posted by clavdivs at 10:02 PM on February 2, 2016


Tim Kaine, the 58-year-old former Governor of Virginia who was on Obama's short list for VP and was later elected Senator, would seem to fit the bill.

Along these lines, a friend who is a Bernie supporter (but who will vote for Hillary if she's the nominee) had dropped Ed Rendell's name as possible VP.

That excludes Elizabeth Warren, who'd be an awkward match anyway,

More than awkward: Elizabeth Warren Sinks Clinton's Hopes for Endorsement
posted by Room 641-A at 10:09 PM on February 2, 2016


"Colin Powell was considered a contender for president in the past, but failed to run because his wife thought he'd get shot."

Ok, while this was a concern, it is not the real reason, remember the adage about fading solders. There is a reason why he didn't run/ hint he bucked the wrong folk, you simply don't do that and become president, and the load of shit with the whiffs mobile labs while playing Adali Stevenson with shiny new shoes erked me, a lie is one thing, to decimate it another but to actually do it still leaves that resonate taste of mustard.

"Obama proves that is no longer an issue."

And 8 years of Bush didn't, isn't that an erroneous conclusion?
As to Condi can I have a show of hands...you thought Kissenger was all giggles and sherry Bodega, well...Taylor Swift!
posted by clavdivs at 10:23 PM on February 2, 2016


Tim Kaine, the 58-year-old former Governor of Virginia who was on Obama's short list for VP and was later elected Senator, would seem to fit the bill.

Along these lines, a friend who is a Bernie supporter (but who will vote for Hillary if she's the nominee) had dropped Ed Rendell's name as possible VP.


The premise of my Tim Kaine prediction was that Clinton would think her own presidency would be historic enough and wouldn't want to choose a historic VP. Ed Rendell would be historic — he'd be the first Jewish VP. Also, by the time Election Day rolls around, he'll be almost 73.
posted by John Cohen at 10:28 PM on February 2, 2016


That excludes Elizabeth Warren, who'd be an awkward match anyway,

More than awkward: Elizabeth Warren Sinks Clinton's Hopes for Endorsement

If you look at Liam Miller’s past articles, you can see that he’s pretty thoroughly in the tank for Sanders. As is, I think his interpretation of the phrase “Anyone who shrugs and claims that change is just too hard has crawled into bed with the billionaires who want to run this country like some private club.” as a flat-out rejection of Clinton is being read through Sanders-colored lenses.
posted by Going To Maine at 10:32 PM on February 2, 2016


While the running-mate picks are a long way away and it's impossible to know who they'll be, we can safely say Colin Powell isn't going to be anyone's running mate, ever. He'll be almost 80 by Election Day, and he's a pro-choice, pro-gay-rights Republican who endorsed Obama after playing an integral role in leading us into the Iraq war.

I understand the speculation about how Obama's presidency could change Powell's mind about how risky the position would be for him. However, it's also worth considering that when someone who might seem like a great presidential candidate surprises people by never running, it might be because they have skeletons in their closet we might not even know about, and they're not willing to go through the public vetting.
posted by John Cohen at 10:39 PM on February 2, 2016 [3 favorites]


However, it's also worth considering that when someone who might seem like a great presidential candidate surprises people by never running, it might be because they have skeletons in their closet we might not even know about, and they're not willing to go through the public vetting.

Well, plus, being the president is a fucking terrible job in many respects, and not everyone wants the good parts enough to put up with the really, really bad parts.
posted by showbiz_liz at 9:00 AM on February 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


^ that's why I don't think Trump is gonna see this through to the end. I think he'd really love to prove he could do it, that he can bulldoze his way through the Republican primary by being the Trumpiest Trumphole he can possibly be, and say whatever asinine shit pops in his head and still win, and once he stands alone, a grotesque orange titan surrounded by the chewed bones of his brethren, he will say yeah I'm over the president thing and bounce, because actually holding that position would majorly cramp his style.
posted by prize bull octorok at 10:24 AM on February 3, 2016 [5 favorites]


That might be a little too Palinesque for Trump to do.
posted by rhizome at 2:51 PM on February 3, 2016


That might be a little too Palinesque for Trump to do.

Trump: Beyond the Palin.
posted by zippy at 11:11 AM on February 4, 2016 [4 favorites]


USERNAME — Cookiebastard
IOWA DEM — Clinton
IOWA GOP — Trump
NH DEM — Clinton
NH GOP — Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — Trump
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — Trump
FINAL WINNER — Trump

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
DEM VP — Corey Booker
GOP VP — Trump Clone

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — The Trump will make America Great again. It was great before and now it will be great again because of the Trump. Mr. Donald will build a wall of good guys with guns to keep the bad guys with guns out, and make America safe for Christians again and make America great again. The other candidates are all weak losers. Can you imagine a great man like Trump having a weak loser for vice president like Ted Cruz or Rick Santorum? I cannot. He would not do a weak loser thing like that. There is only one person who should be a heartbeat away from the presidency in case something happens to Trump: Trump. They could grow the clone in a huge, beautiful gold-plated clone vat and it would count as old enough to be president because it would be as old as Trump, according to the science of genetics. We would get Mexico to pay for the beautiful golden Trump clone vat. The Trump Clone Vice Presedent could then go on to become President after Trump's five terms are up, because all the other candidates are such weak losers that the USA would only want Trump or Trump Clone to be president for the next 40 years. Trump will make America great agin. A great country for great winners, not for weak losers. Everyone will vote for Trump. He will be the first USA President to be elected with 99.9999% of the vote. Only one person would vote against Mr. Donald President Trump. A weak loser who is an illegal alien committing fraud. Trump will make America great again. Like it was before. Vote Trump. Trump.
posted by Cookiebastard at 5:38 PM on February 4, 2016 [3 favorites]


I don't know about the rest of y'all, but every time I see a new set of predictions, there's a moment where I think someone's putting their own username forward as the predicted caucus/primary winner.
posted by duffell at 5:42 PM on February 4, 2016 [5 favorites]


I've been looking at them and thinking "That's not a very good joke name to submit."
posted by Room 641-A at 2:16 AM on February 5, 2016 [5 favorites]


PSA: You can continue submitting entries as long as the thread is open (and MeMail them to me afterward), but any entries submitted after a given state's polls open will be counted as incorrect. Accordingly, the New Hampshire slots for both parties will close Tuesday, February 9th at 6 AM EST.

You can also update your entry if you wish, but doing so will void your predictions for any states that have already voted. So if Jim Gilmore comes out of nowhere to win New Hampshire by 30 points, feel free to make him your favorite for the nomination, but your Iowa and New Hampshire guesses will be discarded. The nominee slots will expire either when one candidate clinches the nomination or when the conventions start (whichever's earlier), and the VP picks will (retroactively) expire 24 hours before they're announced, since there's usually a lot of rumor-rumbling before the pick is officially announced.
posted by Rhaomi at 1:35 PM on February 7, 2016


USERNAME — Hactar
NH DEM — Longmarch Sanders
NH GOP — The Beast Trump
SUPER TUESDAY DEM — Clinton
SUPER TUESDAY GOP — The Smiler Cruz
DEM NOMINEE — Clinton
GOP NOMINEE — The Smiler Cruz
FINAL WINNER — Clinton

HOUSE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
SENATE MAJORITY PARTY — GOP
DEM VP — Male, White, Christian, midwestern or southern. Not vat grown.
GOP VP — Joshua Freeh. Maybe vat grown.

ANALYSIS/RATIONALIZATION/WEEPING — What, you mean the world isn't turning into an entertaining if dangerous cyberpunk setting? Could have fooled me.
posted by Hactar at 2:22 PM on February 9, 2016


POST-N.H. STATS UPDATE:

Of the current entries, only ten have called all four races correctly*. Of those, 100% believe Clinton will win on Super Tuesday and become the Democratic nominee. The GOP side is far more mixed -- 40% say Rubio will win Super Tuesday, 40% chose Cruz, and 20% picked Trump. The numbers are nearly the same for the nomination, save one who guessed Cruz would win out over Rubio. So, 50% Cruz, 30% Rubio, 20% Trump there.

Clinton wins 80% of the general election matchups -- the other two go for Rubio and a joke answer I'm counting as Cruz. All but one foresee a GOP House, while the Senate is a 50-50 toss-up.

As for running mates, Julian Castro is the Democratic crowd favorite with 75% of the entries. Other names include Cory Booker, Sherrod Brown, and a hedge between Castro and Martin O'Malley. The GOP side is once again split:

- Nikki Haley got 30% (paired with Rubio twice and Cruz once)
- Rubio and Fiorina got 20% each (paired with Trump and Cruz both times, respectively)
- These other tickets appeared once each: Rubio-Christie, Cruz-Kasich, and Cruz-Martinez

Interesting stuff! Remember: Super Tuesday is March 1st! This thread should close sometime that afternoon, but I'll see if I can get one more update posted after the results come in. It's unlikely anybody who hasn't entered by that point has a shot at winning, but feel free to MeMail me entries afterwards. It's gonna be an interesting year.

* One was updated after Iowa and thus had those slots disqualified, but I'm including it to make for rounder percentages.
posted by Rhaomi at 4:48 PM on February 11, 2016 [2 favorites]


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